Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Going to be a fight for food as crop yields dwindle due to Global cooling.
I don't think rising property taxes can possibly help residential real estate. With a shrinking tax base who gets it? This is a great place to have grown up in the '50s on and I am lucky to have been born here but some people don't get the fact that what went down centuries ago can't happen here. You're going to have people walking away from real estate if they can't pay their prop taxes. Since munis and states can't print who they gonna go after?
Going to be a fight for food as crop yields dwindle due to Global cooling.
I don't think rising property taxes can possibly help residential real estate. With a shrinking tax base who gets it? This is a great place to have grown up in the '50s on and I am lucky to have been born here but some people don't get the fact that what went down centuries ago can't happen here. You're going to have people walking away from real estate if they can't pay their prop taxes. Since munis and states can't print who they gonna go after?
There will be plenty of food, though people might have to make choices. If the price of beef triples, poor people will have to eat beans.
As for property taxes, people usually have to be delinquent for 5 years before the county starts foreclosure, and then people have a year's right of rescission when they can redeem the property without penalty. The process takes 6 full years, plus however long the foreclosure process takes.
It's far more likely people would lose property to mortgage foreclosure. It's debt that is the problem.
Sorry I just don't see all the gloom and doom, just as I never believe the market would totally collapse. This is different than other recessions
Every negative economic event brings out the same end-of-days types, just different people and different names. It's their time to shine, and when all their dire predictions don't happen they just fade away and wait for the next one.
Case in point:
Quote:
Originally Posted by lancers
Going to be a fight for food as crop yields dwindle due to Global cooling.
Many jobs were eliminated, but the world seems to be able to go on without them. Maybe people should learn to make themselves essential.
Most "essential" jobs do not pay the bills. They don't even pay for housing. Certainly not even enough to support a family. It will be worse than 2008 because our economy is built on shopping. There will be few places to shop and few people who can afford to shop even if there was stuff to buy.
Every negative economic event brings out the same end-of-days types, just different people and different names. It's their time to shine, and when all their dire predictions don't happen they just fade away and wait for the next one.
Case in point:
Short memory huh? Ever wonder why the Irish emigrated to the New World. Boston and NY? Potato famine. Year without a Summer. Solar Minimum food shortage. Not end of days BS but it will happen.
More hospitals will be built
Multi-Generational Households
Retirement Age is now younger to free up job opportunities for the youth
These 3 stood out to me:
1. Hospitals are struggling. Since all of the elective and profit making services aren't available, hospitals are losing money. Pandemics are expensive and there is no space for anything else to happen. They don't have revenue coming in, so they can't afford to be open. Hospitals will shrink unless there is another revenue source.
2. We will see more multi-generational households because people won't be able to afford to live on the low wages os "essential" work, and huge swaths of the economy will shrink (hospitality, restaurants, retail, bars). Younger people will move in with their boomer parents because their parents own their homes and have cheap mortgages if they aren't paid off. Younger people who aren't making tons of money to afford "market rate" housing will not be able to afford to live alone.
3. Retirement age will go up because many will have lost their prime income generating years to recessions in 2008 and the post-pandemic world. They won't be able to afford to retire until 75 - because they'll need to catch up for all of the losses an wages that never got to accumulate.
Residential Real Estate - Just a wild guess, but I think pricey areas close to a major metropolis are the most vulnerable (at least in the Los Angeles are that i'm familiar with). Covid will have lasting effects on teleworking, and even a 10% increase in teleworking means 10% fewer buyers of expensive homes near major metropolitan areas. Those same people can opt for more open space, better schools, and newer homes in the suburbs and exurbs. For example, a modest house in West Los Angeles is easily in the $1.5M range, but if that same buyer now has the teleworking option then he can buy an equal sized house in a suburb 30 miles away for half the price and with lower crime, less traffic, and better public schools.
Commercial Real Estate - Retail will take a hit but I see the bigger declines in office space. Again, due to my expectation that teleworking will be substantially more common and accepted after we get over this pandemic.
I agree with you teleworking will increase. I think we will see some declines in home prices, but I don't imagine that demand for home in major metro areas will change much. But there may be some changes to how those home work and look. People aren't only moving to these areas for "access to jobs." Things will change if these areas lose too much vibrancy. If anything if prices decline people will move in order to have walkable access in case they aren't abele to drive as much.
But if people are completely stuck at home, then things would be different.
I do think that we will see some changes in the urban new construction. More built in home offices, more outdoor space, study areas, better acoustics. And home theaters.
If China is in any way an indicator as to how things will go, we now have more people ordering online - everything from groceries to any other goods and getting it delivered to near our home. (Many people live in apartments) Services where people come to your home seem to have been put on hold unless absolutely necessary.
People need to be creative, to offer goods and services where there are opportunities and the people to buy things. here, small sellers have come out of the markets and are now chasing the crowds at places where people pick up their delivery parcels for example. Traditionally, Chinese people are cash-rich which means there is not so much debt around to make things worse. Of course, there IS debt, but the culture is not so dependent on credit as it is in USA, UK, and Europe. Nevertheless, there are still people who are very poor and they will have the same problems as any other country's poor.
Even here, the effects of the virus have not worked their way through the economy yet and although things are getting back to 'normal' and opening up again, personally, I think it will be another 6 months before we get to the depths of this event.
In the US, I am afraid for the poor because they are backed against a wall. If they are unemployed, which many will be, there is no money to pay for mortgages or rent. Banks will not give them extra money because they have nothing to offer the banks as colateral against their loans. Banks and landlords will want their money because they are struggling too, and so the poor will be out on the street without anything. This means they have nothing to lose when they are put out onto the streets to find their basic needs of food and shelter. That is dangerous for society.
If people cannot buy food , or get thrown out of their houses because of debt you can expect riots and looting of shops and houses. Those with property to protect will be protecting it, so in the US, there will be shootings and fighting for the basics of life. It has not got to that stage yet, but it will - not just in the USA but in other countries too because the rich, the corporations, insurance companies, and the banks will 'fight' for what is theirs by repossessing properties and calling in their debts. I can only guess what the rich are doing to make sure they come out of this with their wealth intact.
It is all very well the banks saying they will ease their lending criteria, but at the end of the day, they are still in business for the rich who invest in them. If you have no assets to promise the banks for your extra loans, then they will not lend any money to you. People will get desperate and so have to find something else to do to provide for their family. Put ourself in this position - what would we do to provide for our family?
In all of this and when no-one is looking, I can see pension funds and profits will be raided, so dont expect those to be still there when we get back from this.
Airlines and cruise lines may never recover from this. Sporting events, festivals, and concerts are finished. Hotels are screwed. Nightclubs are finished. Many businesses cannot survive 30-50% mandated occupancy rates with or without 6 feet social distancing.
Yeah, this is going to be worse than 2008, unless we embrace herd immunity like Sweden.
To be fair, places like Las Vegas are working to open back up (sending out surveys of what tourists want, creating dividers at playing tables, etc) but they are going to lose billions.
I agree with this. And thus I'm miserable and very apprehensive about the future. First Im an airline pilot so I fear for my entire career. It may be over for good soon. Then, I have a tremendous love of travel and that's off the table outside of work. Also my wife and I *love* music festivals..and yeah those are gone for who know how long. This has turned my life upside down. Im scared to my core of where I'll be one year from now.
Many jobs were eliminated, but the world seems to be able to go on without them. Maybe people should learn to make themselves essential.
3 of my friends that have lost their jobs recently that were "essential". 2 physicians and a nurse. You were saying?
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
