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No Idea ....but we all see the same thing playing out down the road ...but there is always something taking what we all think, and flipping the outcomes we think are a given ...it is to the point I don’t even want to get started in another discussion of what will be since nooooo one knows what will be.
If the smartest people on the planet in the field of economics can’t predict What will be ,no amateur armchair economist wanna be has the inside track either
Last edited by mathjak107; 04-28-2020 at 04:26 PM..
I think it will skyrocket upwards when the economies first start to open. By late fall, I think the virus will come back (as in spike because it won’t ever leave) and hospitals will be overwhelmed with its overlap with regular flu patients. Economic hopes will fade with more shutdowns. Markets may capitulate again. Later in this year, I think companies will be starting to see just how bad it is and start more permanent restructuring. Early 2021 will be a “blood bath” (hey, I get to use it too) for jobs. We’ll, probably start the slow slog up in 2022. By 2023 or 24, we’ll be back to “normal”.
But predictions are like....blanks...every body’s got one.
This crisis marks the beginning of a generational shift of control in the politics, industries, and finances of this country. The institutions and systems that the Boomers created over the past forty five years are seen as lacking relevance, and they will be discarded and bypassed by younger generations as they find real solutions to their problems. We could see:
1) Older people marginalized in politics and social accommodations,
2) The end of “happy consumerism” and a new frugality,
3) New models for access to health care and education,
4) Radical changes in tax policies and rates (many states are insolvent),
5) A last gasp of federalism where DC tries and fails to assert ultimate authority over states, and the
rise of regional government alliances between states with common interests,
6) A worldwide shift of power and influence to producer nations, the USD is devalued.
I wish you would have defined the difference between a depression and a recession.
Quote:
A recession is widespread economic decline that lasts for at least six months. A depression is a more severe decline that lasts for several years. For example, a recession lasts for 18 months, while the most recent depression lasted for a decade.
We'll have a very deep recession but the question is how long will it last
Will it be a short recession and then a v shaped recovery? Or are we dealing with a global economic collapse? What do you think?
Moonshot back to record highs in stocks within the next few months followed by the biggest bust since The Great Depression later this year into 2021. I have detailed this call in my "moonshot" thread in the investment forum. I said the moonshot higher in stocks would start back around DOW 19,000 when everyone said we were going much lower at the time. At that point in time people said my call was wrong, crazy, and "rubbish"......
Industry wise: technology will surge. More engineering to restructure devices used and even construction sites . Architects will gain from this.
Medical fields will also be taking in the revenue.
Internet providers will cripple the consumer while finding ways to keep em in their grasp.
Pharma will remain at a 200% markup.
The travel industry will find ways to restructure . Then it will slowly climb up in profits.
It may well take some forward thinking individuals to implement. But overall it will lay the foundation for a new way of existence.
Airlines and cruise lines may never recover from this. Sporting events, festivals, and concerts are finished. Hotels are screwed. Nightclubs are finished. Many businesses cannot survive 30-50% mandated occupancy rates with or without 6 feet social distancing.
Yeah, this is going to be worse than 2008, unless we embrace herd immunity like Sweden.
To be fair, places like Las Vegas are working to open back up (sending out surveys of what tourists want, creating dividers at playing tables, etc) but they are going to lose billions.
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