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Old 04-30-2020, 10:34 PM
 
Location: Heart of flyover America
648 posts, read 258,106 times
Reputation: 1228

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Quote:
Originally Posted by seain dublin View Post
Exactly, and this virus which has been made out to be much worse than it is, was the scapegoat so the powers that be don't take direct blame.
The severity of Covid 19 and the response to it can be debated. I just see the contagion as the pin which pricked the super-colossal hyper debt bubble (actually more like a suitcase nuke than a pin).
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Old 04-30-2020, 10:36 PM
 
Location: Las Vegas (Winchester)
558 posts, read 388,407 times
Reputation: 657
Quote:
Originally Posted by Taggerung View Post
I think this has the potential to be the most devastating economic crisis in history. And really, that's the only way this debt fueled hyper-bubble can end. In a devastating economic crisis. Postponing that crash will only make it all the more devastating when it does happen.

We have an unsustainable global economic model based on infinite growth and infinite debt expansion in a finite realm. We reached the limits of growth decades ago, which is why we've had to add more and more debt to fuel GDP growth. In the US, there is now $3.60 for every $1.00 of GDP. Does that seem sustainable?

The system was designed to fail. It must implode, and no amount of worthless debt pumped into it will prevent that from happening. Postpone, perhaps, but not prevent. And as I said before, postponing only amplifies the collapse.
A lot of financial talking heads are predicting that eventually, the Fed will do a "reset" and cancel all of its US Treasury obligations. By that time, the Fed could be holding over $20 trillion in treasury notes. I could involve a period of "monetization" of US debt held outside the Fed, where the Fed buys up a huge chunk of US treasuries on the open market (requiring a change in the current law). I'm guessing this will be something that first world nations do in concert to prevent currency valuation disruptions. It may be something that the US does in response to a EURO debt crisis rather than a dollar crisis, or vice versa. That will be how the "debt crisis" likely ends... just cancel most of it!
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Old 04-30-2020, 10:49 PM
 
1,668 posts, read 388,015 times
Reputation: 1801
You'd have to be senile to want to be the person in charge when the Covid-19 financial chickens come home to roost.
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Old 05-01-2020, 05:45 AM
 
Location: Boston
12,976 posts, read 3,747,203 times
Reputation: 9239
I wasn't aware a Doomers convention was meeting on CD. Have fun guys.
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Old 05-01-2020, 06:27 AM
 
6,909 posts, read 3,117,771 times
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Nothing is ever as bad as the pundits say and nothing is ever as rosy as the pundits say.



I think the Federal Reserve has made smart moves in arresting the slide of the economy. And I don't think it's like 2008 at all, chiefly because bank balance sheets were in a much more precarious state back then than they are today.



I see terrible 2Q financial reports followed by a relatively brisk recovery. Relatively.
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Old 05-01-2020, 07:32 AM
 
3,394 posts, read 5,581,557 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seain dublin View Post
LOL..thanks for the laugh.

30 million people are now out of work, and that will increase.

Unemployment benefits. I live in CA there is growing frustration with people not being able to apply on the website, forget calling. Those who have gotten to apply are still waiting now going on 4 weeks and haven't gotten their first check.

So they're not getting any assistance.

And it isn't just in CA, just got a text from a friend who told me her head is about to explode as she can't get through to apply., BTW she is a nurse. Nurses are getting laid off, contrary to the lies told on the TV news most hospitals are quiet.

All jobs are essential to those who had them.

Wake up and smell the coffee, the US economy was running on empty, with massive debt. We have been kicking the can down the road.

This virus which does exist, but has been made out to be much worse than it is. It is the excuse that will be given for the economic collapse. Both parties are to blame, but they will use the virus as the excuse.

Think about it, you don't close down like this over something that 98% of the people who get it make a full recovery, and that for the most part the ones that don't are due to age, obesity, and preexisting conditions. It doesn't make sense, but it does if you want to blame it for an economy that has been like a house of cards for many years.

I don't know the person is you're taking about, maybe she smokes a bowl before going on air.
That huge unemployment number is misleading and will shrink materially once states start reopening their economies. It won't be a complete bounce-back, there will definitely be lingering effects of this event for years to come, but somewhere close to 75% of those currently collecting unemployment will be back to work within the next quarter.

And this virus is exactly what experts cautioned us it would be, there's nothing misleading about it. It's highly contagious, spreads rapidly and while a measurable percentage of infected people remain asymptomatic, for the rest it's a three week event with lingering effects. The mortality rate is higher than the flu, but it's not so much higher that it should greatly impact decision making. But it's rapid spread and debilitating symptoms means an overwhelming of all our support services which in turn will result in unnecessary deaths. I'm neither prepared to die so restaurants can reopen their dining rooms, nor am I willing to participate in a knee jerk reaction to reopen the economy where other people will die as a result.

But I do agree that the economy was precipitously close to collapse before this, and this will provide a convenient rally point for one side of the aisle to avoid blame.
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Old 05-01-2020, 08:13 AM
 
Location: Live in NY State, work in CT
9,556 posts, read 15,604,754 times
Reputation: 3800
Here's why Morningstar is both right and wrong....

RIGHT: This was not a destruction of the economy by market forces and bubbles (though bubbles were there to be popped) but basically a forced "turning off of the light switch". In theory, once it is "turned back on" many of the jobs and the economy roar back, but.....

WRONG: Given the amount of time it is taking, many small businesses will not reopen. Eventually, demand (people will want to go out to eat again, and people will certainly want their hair and nails done, etc.) will cause new businesses to take their place, but the fact that people will still be poorer for awhile and enough people will be afraid to go out for a little while will slow how soon this all comes back.

My prediction is we bounce back later this year or early next year to something like 2008-2009 conditions then about a year after that we start being back to where we were (assuming another virus doesn't come or some other unforseen catastropic event doesn't occur). Even if we have no solid vaccine or treatments, this will go away just from circulating through us and slowly weakening. However, if we use 1918 Spanish flu as our guide it would be about 2 years. Even the two waves of the much much deadlier bubonic plague in the 1300s and 1600s went away but it took several years.
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Old 05-01-2020, 08:20 AM
 
Location: Heart of flyover America
648 posts, read 258,106 times
Reputation: 1228
I wonder how long until we see major civil unrest in the USA?

The unemployment offices are overwhelmed and weeks behind, and congress appears in no rush to issue another stimulus package.
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Old 05-01-2020, 08:51 AM
 
17,804 posts, read 21,969,349 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Taggerung View Post
I wonder how long until we see major civil unrest in the USA?

The unemployment offices are overwhelmed and weeks behind, and congress appears in no rush to issue another stimulus package.

That is a valid concern. People who were able to actually get through and apply online are still waiting for their first check 4 weeks later. Others can't even apply online and forget calling. You're rights they're overwhelmed.

People who feel like they have nothing left to lose, have nothing left to lose.

Crime is on the rise as well. Makes sense some will just take what they think they need.

The US over the last few years has had less and less civility as to how some(not all) people act towards others, especially to strangers when out in public. This is good economic times, so how will some act when things have spiraled down so quickly?
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Old 05-01-2020, 08:58 AM
 
Location: Heart of flyover America
648 posts, read 258,106 times
Reputation: 1228
Quote:
Originally Posted by seain dublin View Post
That is a valid concern. People who were able to actually get through and apply online are still waiting for their first check 4 weeks later. Others can't even apply online and forget calling. You're rights they're overwhelmed.

People who feel like they have nothing left to lose, have nothing left to lose.

Crime is on the rise as well. Makes sense some will just take what they think they need.

The US over the last few years has had less and less civility as to how some(not all) people act towards others, especially to strangers when out in public. This is good economic times, so how will some act when things have spiraled down so quickly?
I think things could get far uglier than during the depression. Back then, we were a nation of regimebted, disciplined industrial workers. Now we're a completely undisciplined nation of obese, tattooed savages.
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