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Old 05-16-2020, 11:43 AM
 
Location: It's in the name!
6,280 posts, read 7,468,911 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Happs View Post
Why aren't prices on most goods and services rapidly declining during this pandemic? With high unemployment rates and low stock market indexes compared to January 2020, one would assume that consumers have less disposable income. It seems however that prices are holding steady to increasing.
Companies have gotten better at inventory management. There are algorithms and AI that help predict demand. No longer do you have manufacturers that are 30, 60, or 90 days behind current demand. Companies have done a pretty good job of recognizing certain demands for certain products during certain times of year and produce just enough to not have warehouses full of products. Which would cause an over supply, thus reducing prices so that they can move some of that overstock.

Right now, I don't think there are warehouses full of a lot of things to reduce prices. Especially when online shopping is still moving inventory. There's no overstock. Products are still being bought online.

On the other hand, watch what happens to new and used cars. Those prices are being slashed because dealer parking lots are full and they are paying for that dormant inventory. They need to move that inventory fast.

Airline prices have dropped. I got a discount on my auto insurance. Some things are cheaper.
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Old 05-16-2020, 11:52 AM
 
Location: Olympus Mons, Mars
6,504 posts, read 9,278,664 times
Reputation: 7025
Although I don't see prices plunging I am seeing salaries absolutely plunging with extreme low ball offers... in my field I've already seen some job postings on LinkedIn with increased skill demands and at the same time with salary ranges 30-50% off what they were in January. This may seem ridiculous but that isn't stopping companies from trying their luck to see if there is anyone desperate enough to take these jobs.
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Old 05-16-2020, 12:21 PM
 
1,989 posts, read 510,658 times
Reputation: 3196
Quote:
Originally Posted by k374 View Post
Although I don't see prices plunging I am seeing salaries absolutely plunging with extreme low ball offers... in my field I've already seen some job postings on LinkedIn with increased skill demands and at the same time with salary ranges 30-50% off what they were in January. This may seem ridiculous but that isn't stopping companies from trying their luck to see if there is anyone desperate enough to take these jobs.
Yeah, I'm seeing some of that.

Just glanced at an internship job paying a whopping $18 an hour, demanding not only some fairly high level skills, but... "previous internship experience required." I guess they only want pre-broken slaves.
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Old 05-16-2020, 12:30 PM
 
Location: Niceville, FL
8,584 posts, read 17,146,179 times
Reputation: 9602
Quote:
Originally Posted by PamelaIamela View Post
I've read that the stimulus $$, having gone to almost everyone, was not spent for consumables as much as it went to savings or paying down debt.

Plus, many folks like me whose income was uninterrupted are saving more than ever because there's no place to spend it even if you want to.
I'm just now restarting a full, down to studs bathroom renovation that was postponed in March, so give it some time before we see whether prices go down or up.
We're kind of in the same spot you are, including the bathroom gut and remodel though we're waiting to get heavy into that until probably the fall. (Pre-C, the local contracting market was really overheating and we're kind of hoping that a construction lull beings a return to more sane pricing)b

Other than the home reno work, we don't need more in terms of stuff in our house; what we haven't been spending money on is restaurant meals and travel. The places we like to eat at are just too far from home to do take out and we aren't sold on eating in at half filled restaurants just yet.

So our stimulus money just got dumped into savings like the tax refund did since there isn't really travel to do right now and we aren't crazy about putting more into the financial markets until the broader economy stabilizes some.
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Old 05-16-2020, 01:23 PM
 
105 posts, read 52,589 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Happs View Post
Why aren't prices on most goods and services rapidly declining during this pandemic? With high unemployment rates and low stock market indexes compared to January 2020, one would assume that consumers have less disposable income. It seems however that prices are holding steady to increasing.
It also seems as though people aren't depriving themselves of those yearly beach vacations, either, and the prices of rentals have not seemed to decline, at least not in NJ or Delaware beaches. I could be wrong, though.
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Old 05-16-2020, 02:00 PM
 
Location: Oregon, formerly Texas
6,384 posts, read 4,328,694 times
Reputation: 11078
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
I can never understand the obsession with the stuff that happened in a different world in a different era .

History never repeats itself exactly enough to make a darn ...only historians repeat themselves , history never does .....

Each time things play out or are triggered by things just different enough that whatever you thought was so sure to play out Because of history will be just different enough to make things not work out the way you thought
Well, the big reason is that the history gives us a tool of analysis to understand what we're going through & make sense of the world.

Clearly our leaders have absorbed the lessons of the past. If we'd have had both a central bank and government response to 2008 the way we have in 2020, there would hardly have been a "great recession" at all. It would have been much shallower. People like Paul Krugman were calling for the 2009 stimulus package to be about twice as large as ARRA ended up being, in the $2 Trillion range rather than $800Bn. That's what they've done this time, and more even - they are talking about a second round worth $3T more which will be pared down but likely still significant.

They are engaging in unprecedented and extraordinary measures to avoid another Great Depression. They are that scared of it. I think what we're seeing in response to covid19 is a paradigm shift in global economic thinking with only a few parallels - the Great Depression and end of WWII among them. Central banks are taking unprecedented moves to interwine themselves with their countries' stock markets. Governments have also sowed the seeds for what could easily become some kind of universal basic income. Use of the internet to do business is going to change significantly.

Just thinking about my micro level.... At like 8 out of 10 places Ive shopped at since covid started... - I can't use cash at the store even if I want to. They won't accept it from me. Only cards. So what is money anyway? Clearly the paper representation of money is going the way of the dinosaur the same way the JC Penneys of the world are.

These trends were bubbling under the surface but now they've breached like a humpback whale.

Last edited by redguard57; 05-16-2020 at 02:14 PM..
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Old 05-16-2020, 03:35 PM
 
1,910 posts, read 709,514 times
Reputation: 6067
Quote:
Originally Posted by adelphi_sky View Post
I am not sure where you live or if you have internet. I assume you have internet access at home. We have had no problem spending money. Even if we DIDN'T want to.

Stores are still open. Home Depot, Costco, Target, etc. Not even considering online retailing and restaurant delivery services.

Unless you live on an island, spending money is not an issue. WE're even considering upgrading our bed to a sleep number bed with the next stimulus payments.

I live in FL and I don't have internet.. I use a can and string to access websites.

But seriously, I wasn't about to commence a full on deconstruction/construction effort with strangers coming and going left and right just as this mess was ramping up.
And I rarely buy clothes online, if I buy them at all any more.

Everyone spends differently.
Younger folks collect stuff... older folks who have everything they need (and little that they don't) collect experiences.
Like foreign travel, day trips incl. gasoline, card parties, movie outings, tea dances, football tailgate parties, tribute bands, museums, live opera and musicals, jazz and comedy clubs, weddings and birthdays, cooking classes, pickleball socials, dinner parties, restaurant dates, spas for massages, manicures & pedicures, housecleaning, haircuts, kayaking, fishing,...
See what I mean?

(P.S. This may shock you, but everyone didn't get 'stimulus money'.)

Last edited by PamelaIamela; 05-16-2020 at 03:49 PM..
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Old 05-16-2020, 03:53 PM
 
12,605 posts, read 17,664,994 times
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VERY strong behavioral pattern was embedded into the US common folk. Very strong. For several generations, and rather successfully, ever since consumer credit was unleashed even exponentially more, people became accustomed to buying. Spending. not saving. Living via debt. "living the moment", Life is short, live it to the utmost extent", "enjoy anything you want to" became in blood of folks.
That result sin HUGE momentum that can't be broken down by few months. No one from this crowd quits such habits cold. It will take longer than that to slowly realize - shoot, I can't buy new ..... just because it was just released.

Consumer demand drives economy. There is demand = prices do not go down, they go up.

There is no demand = prices go down. Deflation starts.

Also, do not forget another momentum.
Economy sector satisfying consumerism was, for same period of time, based on "prices go up". THAT got embedded in that side of economy and, will take time to rid of too.
Eventually, all this will come to screeching halt. What will be Gigernomous Depression.
Yes, Mathjack. History does repeat itself. Just at higher level. Current crisis is very much so similar to one in the 2oth century 20s-30s. Just at another and much higher level. Global.
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Old 05-16-2020, 04:10 PM
 
Location: NYC
16,399 posts, read 10,591,037 times
Reputation: 19294
It has always been about supply and demand, the OP probably is a college drop out.
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Old 05-16-2020, 04:14 PM
 
80,191 posts, read 78,539,410 times
Reputation: 56703
Quote:
Originally Posted by redguard57 View Post
Well, the big reason is that the history gives us a tool of analysis to understand what we're going through & make sense of the world.

Clearly our leaders have absorbed the lessons of the past. If we'd have had both a central bank and government response to 2008 the way we have in 2020, there would hardly have been a "great recession" at all. It would have been much shallower. People like Paul Krugman were calling for the 2009 stimulus package to be about twice as large as ARRA ended up being, in the $2 Trillion range rather than $800Bn. That's what they've done this time, and more even - they are talking about a second round worth $3T more which will be pared down but likely still significant.

They are engaging in unprecedented and extraordinary measures to avoid another Great Depression. They are that scared of it. I think what we're seeing in response to covid19 is a paradigm shift in global economic thinking with only a few parallels - the Great Depression and end of WWII among them. Central banks are taking unprecedented moves to interwine themselves with their countries' stock markets. Governments have also sowed the seeds for what could easily become some kind of universal basic income. Use of the internet to do business is going to change significantly.

Just thinking about my micro level.... At like 8 out of 10 places Ive shopped at since covid started... - I can't use cash at the store even if I want to. They won't accept it from me. Only cards. So what is money anyway? Clearly the paper representation of money is going the way of the dinosaur the same way the JC Penneys of the world are.

These trends were bubbling under the surface but now they've breached like a humpback whale.
There is a difference between seeing what DIDNT work from history vs history repeating itself ....case in point was the Great Depression when the central bank did the wrong thing ...but that does not mean what they did do in the Great Depression would not be a good idea in a different situation and problem we have ....

So like I said history never repeats itself , only historians repeat themselves . Each time is just different enough to keep history from repeating the same way .

2008 was handled differently and we did not do what was done the Great Depression....

This is why I have never been a fan of charts ,patterns and averages ...they only work until they don’t
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