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Old 05-10-2020, 08:29 PM
 
Location: Tennessee
28,286 posts, read 21,213,936 times
Reputation: 34696

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Quote:
Originally Posted by ComeCloser View Post
If its achieved, it will be achieved slowly. We are only in day 71, I think. This virus keeps showing us new tricks. You don't want to see the herd rushing off looking for immunity only to run off a cliff of something else unexpected.

Someone on here is crying that his/her life is over at 40. Wtf? You can plan on living to be 100 if nothing kills you first. That means you have 60 long years left. You can do anything you want to do in that amount of time, including pursue a Master's degree in something and still have 50 years left over.

The economy will be fine because it was fine prior to the advent of this virus. Sure, you hear of businesses filing bankruptcy - Chapter 11. It sounds like doom and gloom but they are restructuring and taking advantage of refinancing deals to lower their debt which will increase their profit. That would be why Neiman Marcus and others aren't having 'going out of business' sales. They never had any intention of going out of business.
I live in the middle of nowhere, so maybe my perspective is skewed, but a lot of the places that are folding right now were barely holding on to begin with.

If JC Penney folds, that doesn't impact my life that much. They have been on the decline for many years. If some of the chain restaurants fold, there are too many of them that are redundant as it was.

I think the next two years or so could be really difficult. With that said, I don't see this turning the economy back a few centuries or anything like that.
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Old 05-10-2020, 11:35 PM
 
28,272 posts, read 30,841,744 times
Reputation: 28814
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoonose View Post
And in many cases the Fed will step in.

https://www.google.com/search?source...4dUDCAg&uact=5
At some point, the digital money printing will stop working. I don't know where the tipping point is, but I'm certain their is one, and America keeps pushing it's luck.
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Old 05-10-2020, 11:39 PM
 
28,272 posts, read 30,841,744 times
Reputation: 28814
Quote:
Originally Posted by Serious Conversation View Post
I live in the middle of nowhere, so maybe my perspective is skewed, but a lot of the places that are folding right now were barely holding on to begin with.

If JC Penney folds, that doesn't impact my life that much. They have been on the decline for many years. If some of the chain restaurants fold, there are too many of them that are redundant as it was.

I think the next two years or so could be really difficult. With that said, I don't see this turning the economy back a few centuries or anything like that.
The problem with the mom and pop businesses folding is it takes away livelihoods of millions of people and makes it easier for big corporations to monopolize the economy, which further limits competition.

Once you take away the livelihoods of millions, it also makes people more open to accepting "basic income", which will be used by an increasingly tyrannical government as a way of controlling the populace.

The building blocks for the hunger games society are being laid down very quickly right before our eyes.
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Old 05-11-2020, 08:32 AM
 
11,276 posts, read 4,797,116 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mysticaltyger View Post
At some point, the digital money printing will stop working. I don't know where the tipping point is, but I'm certain their is one, and America keeps pushing it's luck.
An apocalypse, and then no need. In the meantime we and the world need USD's and USD denominated debt to do our business here and all over the world. Countries and governments all over the world, banks and other financial institutions all over the world, businesses and industries all over the world, people, politicians, drug lords and other miscreants and thieves all over the world, depend on it.

There is no other sovereign currency, alt money source or commodity in existence today to supplant the USD. And none on the horizon.

The EU has many more problems due to its lack of political union.
The Yen is already more stretched out and doesn't have a military to speak of.
The Swiss Franc simply does not have the necessary volume.
The Yen has gone no where in the world in any quantity, and the secretive Chinese central command shows no reason to open up.
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Old 05-11-2020, 03:14 PM
 
Location: Nebraska
4,527 posts, read 7,736,717 times
Reputation: 7463
Quote:
Originally Posted by bawac34618 View Post
A lot of people think this is going to be at least a 10-15 year ordeal much like the 1930s depression was. That's also assuming there are no other massive shocks to the system between now and recovery.

Do you think there's any chance that the economy recovers within five years or is this the real deal?
We will if we get rid of the idiots in office. Tighten your belts because the ALPHABET bureaucrats will be back regulating like never before. Civil Service laws enacted in the 19th Century need revision NOW.

A politician can be UNELECTED. A lousy Federal employee is almost impossible to FIRE.
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Old 05-11-2020, 05:06 PM
 
Location: United States of Jerry Falwell
11,430 posts, read 5,453,401 times
Reputation: 9648
Quote:
Originally Posted by mysticaltyger View Post
You need to study history a lot more closely. It can get a lot harsher.
Well England is saying this is the worst economic conditions they’ve seen in 300 years. Yes, it can get worse, but this is a very high end disaster. I think in a couple of years it will become much more apparent how screwed we really are. Too many people still have this idea that it’s going to be a V-shaped recovery.

If we are exceptionally lucky, it may be a long U or Nike swoosh. It’s most likely going to be L-shaped and we will still be feeling the effects of this a generation from now.
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Old 05-11-2020, 05:13 PM
 
28,272 posts, read 30,841,744 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bawac34618 View Post
Well England is saying this is the worst economic conditions they’ve seen in 300 years.
Could be. The general standard of living is still much better than 300 years ago--for now.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bawac34618 View Post
Yes, it can get worse, but this is a very high end disaster.
Agreed. And it's a largely self imposed disaster. Heck, even Robert Kennedy Jr. (and he's a Democrat, btw) said that we didn't need to close things down as we have (see interview starting at 45:00). Like he said, it's a major power play by the likes of people like Fauci and Bill Gates.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QLi6ZrFp6vQ&t=3056s

Quote:
Originally Posted by bawac34618 View Post
I think in a couple of years it will become much more apparent how screwed we really are. Too many people still have this idea that it’s going to be a V-shaped recovery

If we are exceptionally lucky, it may be a long U or Nike swoosh. It’s most likely going to be L-shaped and we will still be feeling the effects of this a generation from now.
Agreed.
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Old 05-11-2020, 06:38 PM
 
Location: Tennessee
28,286 posts, read 21,213,936 times
Reputation: 34696
I honestly do not understand the shutdowns in most areas.

Originally, the goal was to flatten the curve. Even in the most infected areas, this goal has largely been achieved. I live in Sullivan County in the below image. Total population is about 168,000. We have three current cases. Washington County is more dense, has a major university, and has only ten. The rural counties are even less impacted.



Why the hell were we ever shut down? Why did we implode the economy? We never had a problem. I'm fine with banning large events and mass gatherings. Institute some social distancing requirements. With that said, why shut down all restaurants and "nonessential" businesses when it is highly unlikely we'd have ever had a problem? We're in the middle of nowhere and not a transit hub. There isn't a lot of travel. It's rural so inherently lower transmission rate than a high density place.

What makes policy sense in NYC or even Nashville is often worthless here.
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Old 05-11-2020, 06:59 PM
 
11,276 posts, read 4,797,116 times
Reputation: 2388
Quote:
Originally Posted by Serious Conversation View Post
I honestly do not understand the shutdowns in most areas.

Originally, the goal was to flatten the curve. Even in the most infected areas, this goal has largely been achieved. I live in Sullivan County in the below image. Total population is about 168,000. We have three current cases. Washington County is more dense, has a major university, and has only ten. The rural counties are even less impacted.



Why the hell were we ever shut down? Why did we implode the economy? We never had a problem. I'm fine with banning large events and mass gatherings. Institute some social distancing requirements. With that said, why shut down all restaurants and "nonessential" businesses when it is highly unlikely we'd have ever had a problem? We're in the middle of nowhere and not a transit hub. There isn't a lot of travel. It's rural so inherently lower transmission rate than a high density place.

What makes policy sense in NYC or even Nashville is often worthless here.
Because we did not know enough a few months back. Our small local hospitals did not know if they would be in a position to handle cases at all. It took some time to prep, and it took some time for all of us to learn. Now we are unwinding, and shall see what we shall see...
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Old 05-11-2020, 07:29 PM
 
23,377 posts, read 9,399,487 times
Reputation: 11244
Quote:
Originally Posted by Serious Conversation View Post
I honestly do not understand the shutdowns in most areas.

Originally, the goal was to flatten the curve. Even in the most infected areas, this goal has largely been achieved. I live in Sullivan County in the below image. Total population is about 168,000. We have three current cases. Washington County is more dense, has a major university, and has only ten. The rural counties are even less impacted.



Why the hell were we ever shut down? Why did we implode the economy? We never had a problem. I'm fine with banning large events and mass gatherings. Institute some social distancing requirements. With that said, why shut down all restaurants and "nonessential" businesses when it is highly unlikely we'd have ever had a problem? We're in the middle of nowhere and not a transit hub. There isn't a lot of travel. It's rural so inherently lower transmission rate than a high density place.

What makes policy sense in NYC or even Nashville is often worthless here.
You are spot on, but the media can't handle that this is mainly a NYC pandemic which will disproportionately cripple that city's competitive position for generations to come.

Misery loves company.
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