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Old 05-12-2020, 02:40 AM
 
80,194 posts, read 78,539,410 times
Reputation: 56703

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Quote:
Originally Posted by WannabeCPA View Post
Of course there's a chance the economy recovers in 5 years, IMO a very good chance. And what does "the real deal" even mean? Are you implying the economy is ruined for good? No one, and I mean NO ONE knows with certainty where the economy will be in 5 years. It might be much, much better. It could be much, much worse. Or anything in between. My biggest worry right now is boredom. Many others who I've talked to feel the same.
no one knows the outcome ... right now things are all messed up and even skewed many , including myself are making more on unemployment then working ...i dont care if i dont go back for months now .

i worked one day a week and my unemployment is almost 2x what i earned ..its crazy .

you have a trillion dollars going on in an underground economy too that has not stopped .

.

out of the ashes of the failures new business will rise .

so no one knows how this will play out ...i dont buy in to the great depression II theme
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Old 05-12-2020, 02:53 AM
 
Location: Oregon, formerly Texas
6,384 posts, read 4,328,694 times
Reputation: 11078
Well the Great Depression was caused by a banking and speculative financial crisis. 1929-32 was basically a bigger and worse version of 2007-09. We knew how to handle it as a result.

We've never had a mass-natural disaster hit the world like this modern times. 1918 does't give us a lot of clues because WW1 had already wreaked havoc with the world economy - broken up empires, etc... Also that virus did its work more quickly. Once you cought it, if you were going to die it happened in days after you caught it. The 2 week sneaky incubation period of covid19 creates a long lag time.

The big question now is whether the virus has done the majority of its damage or whether it will surge in the wake of reopenings.

Last edited by redguard57; 05-12-2020 at 03:01 AM..
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Old 05-12-2020, 04:58 AM
 
Location: annandale, va & slidell, la
9,216 posts, read 3,812,807 times
Reputation: 8341
Quote:
Originally Posted by bawac34618 View Post
A lot of people think this is going to be at least a 10-15 year ordeal much like the 1930s depression was. That's also assuming there are no other massive shocks to the system between now and recovery.

Do you think there's any chance that the economy recovers within five years or is this the real deal?
Based on your track record, not many would turn to you for economic strategy or outlook.
Our predicament is worldwide and was caused by China. This has nothing to do with 1920's policies.
You can remain unemployed. Most want to resume their former lives and thrive. Its human nature.
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Old 05-12-2020, 05:20 AM
 
22,355 posts, read 8,996,527 times
Reputation: 10467
Quote:
Originally Posted by VitaminB12 View Post
It's more of NE and Great Lakes pandemic. The issue is we had no plan and winged it.

NYC came back after 9/11 pretty strong, but this will certainly be another major set back for them.
9-11 was a piece of cake for NYC long-term vs the Great pandemic, disproportionately hitting the Northeast, and as another noted, Great Lakes region.

I expect a ton of corps to move much of workforce outside the epicenter.

Mine is building duplicity in operations, and white collar professional staff, in less affected parts of the nation.

That may reduce the NY metro operation not long into the future, and I applaud that prudent move.
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Old 05-12-2020, 06:50 AM
 
80,194 posts, read 78,539,410 times
Reputation: 56703
Quote:
Originally Posted by bawac34618 View Post
That's about how long this depression is expected to last so....
expected by who ? soothsayers and guess work ?
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Old 05-12-2020, 07:57 AM
 
10,548 posts, read 4,582,964 times
Reputation: 2158
Quote:
Originally Posted by redguard57 View Post
Well the Great Depression was caused by a banking and speculative financial crisis. 1929-32 was basically a bigger and worse version of 2007-09. We knew how to handle it as a result.

We've never had a mass-natural disaster hit the world like this modern times. 1918 does't give us a lot of clues because WW1 had already wreaked havoc with the world economy - broken up empires, etc... Also that virus did its work more quickly. Once you cought it, if you were going to die it happened in days after you caught it. The 2 week sneaky incubation period of covid19 creates a long lag time.

The big question now is whether the virus has done the majority of its damage or whether it will surge in the wake of reopenings.
All very true.

But the virus situation today with our poor even so stressed out is NOTHING like the Great Depression.

Our std. of living, along with social and financial backups are way too much improved to let our poor die in the streets. Trump/Mnuchin are seeing to that.
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Old 05-12-2020, 08:30 AM
 
7,367 posts, read 2,737,345 times
Reputation: 9665
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
i worked one day a week and my unemployment is almost 2x what i earned ..its crazy .
It's not crazy. You're supposed to take that free helicopter money and go out and spend it. Spending is the ultimate economic stimulus. Order a nice dinner from a local restaurant, curbside. Go to a mom'n'pop hardware store and buy yourself a new lawnmower.
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Old 05-12-2020, 08:33 AM
 
80,194 posts, read 78,539,410 times
Reputation: 56703
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elliott_CA View Post
It's not crazy. You're supposed to take that free helicopter money and go out and spend it. Spending is the ultimate economic stimulus. Order a nice dinner from a local restaurant, curbside. Go to a mom'n'pop hardware store and buy yourself a new lawnmower.
actually it is mostly going to be used to pay bills and debit not new buying spurring growth .. that was the issue in 2008 .. they did not give it to those with the resources to spend it on new stuff .. instead it went to the masses who either paid existing bills , debt or saved it ...it did not spur buying new stuff at all

Last edited by mathjak107; 05-12-2020 at 08:50 AM..
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Old 05-12-2020, 09:27 AM
 
Location: New Jersey
15,224 posts, read 14,618,177 times
Reputation: 6665
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
actually it is mostly going to be used to pay bills and debit not new buying spurring growth .. that was the issue in 2008 .. they did not give it to those with the resources to spend it on new stuff .. instead it went to the masses who either paid existing bills , debt or saved it ...it did not spur buying new stuff at all
I realize the intention is to stimulate the economy NOW but if people are able to repair their balance sheets, there will be economic benefits to that move in the longer term. I am paying down debt which will allow me to spend more in the months and years ahead. Same for those who sock it away in savings and will use it down the road.
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Old 05-12-2020, 11:58 AM
 
Location: NYC
16,399 posts, read 10,591,037 times
Reputation: 19301
Quote:
Originally Posted by BobNJ1960 View Post
9-11 was a piece of cake for NYC long-term vs the Great pandemic, disproportionately hitting the Northeast, and as another noted, Great Lakes region.

I expect a ton of corps to move much of workforce outside the epicenter.

Mine is building duplicity in operations, and white collar professional staff, in less affected parts of the nation.

That may reduce the NY metro operation not long into the future, and I applaud that prudent move.
9/11 affected mostly just a 2 mi square block area. This affected the entire world. I know the plan for most offices right now is remote work for the rest of the year. All Fortune 500 and publically traded companies already have FT remote workers and this pandemic simply increase the amount of remote workers.

This will be the worst event for NYC, I don't know when NYC will recover it maybe 3-5 years from now. Assuming that a vaccine is out by this time next year. It will take another year for people to get the vaccine before being allowed to return to workplaces. If people don't return to offices next year, a lot of offices will close down. I can see small to medium size companies cancel their leases and go full remote. Workers will leave the area too, no need to pay NYC taxes while they can work in a cheaper home town. This has a devastating effect on the local NYC economy.
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