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Old 05-07-2020, 03:56 PM
 
Location: United States of Jerry Falwell
11,430 posts, read 5,315,717 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
Many of those jobs will not need replacing ...
Some of them will however and that will open up jobs and advancement opportunity. It may help get the unemployment rate back under 12%.
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Old 05-07-2020, 04:03 PM
 
80,167 posts, read 78,518,791 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bawac34618 View Post
Some of them will however and that will open up jobs and advancement opportunity. It may help get the unemployment rate back under 12%.
The company I do work for got their stimulus package and just brought back 350 people in Long Island .they are alternating those in the office so half are working from home and half are in the office ..then they switch the next week ....
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Old 05-07-2020, 04:20 PM
 
Location: Northern Wisconsin
9,927 posts, read 8,599,837 times
Reputation: 17562
It will all depend on the govt. As long as the govt keeps stopping businesses from operating, the decline will continue. Its just like other economic recessions in business. Its caused by govt. or prolonged by govt. If the govt. gets out of the way, things will get better. But the more they try to stop economic activity, the more regulations and penalties, the worse it will be.
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Old 05-07-2020, 04:25 PM
 
Location: Durham NC
1,681 posts, read 1,533,713 times
Reputation: 1226
I am not the most optimistic person in the world but I don't think it will take all that long before things get back to something like normal. By next Summer we should be in good shape. Until then I think we''ll manage to limp along at a slow pace.
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Old 05-07-2020, 05:06 PM
DKM
 
Location: Thousand Oaks, CA
4,059 posts, read 1,483,941 times
Reputation: 3724
All depends on the outcome of the virus. If it goes away next year one way or another the long term damage is minimal. This virus doesn't take out many productive people. Less people to support for a few years will help the economy recover. Its not something I'm happy to say, but it is true.
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Old 05-07-2020, 09:23 PM
 
8,697 posts, read 2,418,954 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bawac34618 View Post
A lot of people think this is going to be at least a 10-15 year ordeal much like the 1930s depression was. That's also assuming there are no other massive shocks to the system between now and recovery.

Do you think there's any chance that the economy recovers within five years or is this the real deal?

No one knows for sure. JP Morgan says 10-12 years. We have one example of unemployment reaching 25%, the great depression and it took 10-15 years. Now we are at 25%. And we are fighting a pandemic at the same time.

Top JPMorgan Investment Officer: It Will Take ’10 to 12 Years’ for U.S. Employment Levels to Return

https://www.mediaite.com/tv/top-jpmo...e-virus-level/
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Old 05-08-2020, 02:49 AM
 
Location: Oregon, formerly Texas
6,383 posts, read 4,326,658 times
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I'm going to split the middle here and say that the markets and certain parts of the tech sector especially will recover quickly. The possibly already are. That covers maybe 25% of the population.

Then, most, but not all, of the white collar econonmy will muddle along about like they were before, some a little worse off, some a little better. This is another 25-35%

The other half is pretty well screwed.

The recovery will be VERY unequal. Many, many service and lower middle income jobs are not coming back for the foreseeable future. I expect to see something like the occupy wall street movement again but much bigger.
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Old 05-08-2020, 09:34 AM
 
4,390 posts, read 3,570,493 times
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American public schools have done a very real disservice to all those who came out of those institutions with so little knowledge of their national economic history. Just as labor history has been decidedly cleaned up and now presentable for our tender youth to contemplate. One hell of a lot of us have little to go on when considering that the path taken by our ancestors was continuously interrupted by economic upheaval--and, the subsequent realization that slogging through one after another of history's economic fails, is synonymous with, life in America. Yes, the pendulum swings from prosperity to the plight of paupers, but is never has stopped.

https://www.thebalance.com/the-histo...states-3306011
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Old 05-08-2020, 09:42 AM
 
Location: United States of Jerry Falwell
11,430 posts, read 5,315,717 times
Reputation: 9609
Quote:
Originally Posted by jertheber View Post
American public schools have done a very real disservice to all those who came out of those institutions with so little knowledge of their national economic history. Just as labor history has been decidedly cleaned up and now presentable for our tender youth to contemplate. One hell of a lot of us have little to go on when considering that the path taken by our ancestors was continuously interrupted by economic upheaval--and, the subsequent realization that slogging through one after another of history's economic fails, is synonymous with, life in America. Yes, the pendulum swings from prosperity to the plight of paupers, but is never has stopped.

https://www.thebalance.com/the-histo...states-3306011
True, but there was only one Great Depression and learning about it in school growing up always terrified me. Now we are at the beginning of a repeat.
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Old 05-08-2020, 10:43 AM
 
4,390 posts, read 3,570,493 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bawac34618 View Post
True, but there was only one Great Depression and learning about it in school growing up always terrified me. Now we are at the beginning of a repeat.
The old saying, "It's a recession when your neighbor loses his job; it's a depression when you lose yours." Is attributed to Truman, a president who at the least understood the American preoccupation with self interest. Millions of people suffered unimaginable hardship--before the "great depression--and after it. You should be terrified of the terrific uncertainty in US economics, as a continuing norm, not an anomaly.

To think that the pain of losing one's shirt-- needs to be a universal experience for it to be valid-- or worse-- for it to be considered less of a comparable level of grief than a more widespread pain, is totally unrealistic. This entire debacle should, at the least, let us all understand the pain of poverty, but in a world where everyone is only considering themselves, I doubt that this will sink in.

I'd have to say that the best book abut that "great" depression is the book by Studs Terkel, titled "Hard Times." In it he writes the words of those who lived through that period, and not surprisingly, many in America went through it just fine, just as many will today. It is that aspect that causes so much bickering and why politicians are attempting to sooth both sides.
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