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Old 05-08-2020, 04:37 PM
 
Location: United States of Jerry Falwell
11,430 posts, read 5,317,907 times
Reputation: 9609

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Quote:
Originally Posted by North Beach Person View Post

He'll no doubt start another one soon blaming the whole crisis on Evangelicals.
Evangelicals run the country right now and they did in 2008 as well. They are also at the forefront of the movement to open back up ASAP (they know Trump doesn't get re-elected and they can't ban abortion and gay marriage if the economy doesn't improve). Hopefully they are right in that the virus has been overhyped because if we have a huge second wave, that WILL be the fault of the Christian Right. None of us want that.

Last edited by bawac34618; 05-08-2020 at 04:46 PM..
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Old 05-08-2020, 06:12 PM
 
8,709 posts, read 2,423,231 times
Reputation: 5582
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post

There might be a brief liquidity issue, but government has been addressing that, so it's likely to be very short-lived.

Barring a resurgence of the virus, you'll be at full-steam by July.

Resurgence of the virus? Has it gone away? Yesterday we had 29,500 new cases. The weekly moving average of new cases has fallen from 31K per day to 28K per day. That is a 10% drop in about 4.5 weeks. At this rate we should be down to about 23K by July 1st. Hopefully that is not the case.

Countries several weeks ahead of our timeline in Europe still have stubbornly high new case numbers equal to us having 10,000 new cases a day. That would be us in early June. And although I support states having the opportunity to open up its likely to at least push the numbers higher than they would have been with a more Italy or Spain style lock down. So us being down to 10k new cases a day June 1st is a really optimistic number. The trend line puts us at $26k per day June 1st.

So July 1st we could have over 20K cases a day or perhaps less. And that is assuming that all the state openings will not make the numbers go up much. If they do, well we could still be at 30k per day in July or worse. And people are going to want to milk their unemployment benefits of which the extra $600 a week lasts until July 31st. Another reason why we will not be full steam by July. Perhaps you meant July 2021 or 2022. Well that is more possible.

And what happens with restaurants, sporting events, concerts, movie theaters, Las Vegas I could go on. Are we going to let every place just fill up to capacity like they did before the pandemic? Or are most businesses going to fill to 25% to 50% capacity and retailers will have occupancy limits at their front doors. Even if we did how many people would not take part in that with thousands of new people still getting sick every day in July?

I am not into the sky is falling mentality but its going be a long time before we are full steam.

Last edited by Oklazona Bound; 05-08-2020 at 06:31 PM..
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Old 05-08-2020, 06:16 PM
 
Location: The Ozone Layer, apparently...
2,385 posts, read 893,038 times
Reputation: 5052
Okay well, if my retirement annuity is any indication - it is recovering already. My account total plummeted by 10K but is now only down 4K. That all happened in like a month? I have no doubt it will fully recover and am optimistic enough to believe it will grow beyond what it would have before the virus.

On the fiscally positive side - all the people that died. If they were on SS, they will no longer be pulling money from SS. If they didn't live long enough to collect SS, at least a portion if not all of their contributions until they died are now rejuvenating the SS system.

Jobs - some people that died had jobs. Most if not all of those jobs will now be available. Already, a surplus of jobs has been created in the health fields, and other industries - drivers for deliveries, etc.

Its already recovering. If mankind survives this beast of a virus, 5 years is very conservative, and will probably recover much sooner.
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Old 05-08-2020, 07:30 PM
 
Location: North Beach, MD on the Chesapeake
35,213 posts, read 45,194,826 times
Reputation: 45616
Quote:
Originally Posted by ComeCloser View Post
Okay well, if my retirement annuity is any indication - it is recovering already. My account total plummeted by 10K but is now only down 4K. That all happened in like a month? I have no doubt it will fully recover and am optimistic enough to believe it will grow beyond what it would have before the virus.

On the fiscally positive side - all the people that died. If they were on SS, they will no longer be pulling money from SS. If they didn't live long enough to collect SS, at least a portion if not all of their contributions until they died are now rejuvenating the SS system.

Jobs - some people that died had jobs. Most if not all of those jobs will now be available. Already, a surplus of jobs has been created in the health fields, and other industries - drivers for deliveries, etc.

Its already recovering. If mankind survives this beast of a virus, 5 years is very conservative, and will probably recover much sooner.
In all honesty, the Social Security payments saved from "those who've died" doesn't amount to much more than rounding error in the total outlay.

What will, and has, impacted Social Security is the loss of contributions from those who are now laid off.
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Old 05-08-2020, 07:35 PM
 
5,226 posts, read 2,907,269 times
Reputation: 6753
I wish I knew. I don't. It personally took me over 5 years to recover from my ill timed 2008 graduation.

I've spent the entirety of my career either rebuilding from recession or getting decimated by one.
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Old 05-08-2020, 07:45 PM
 
Location: The Ozone Layer, apparently...
2,385 posts, read 893,038 times
Reputation: 5052
Quote:
Originally Posted by GuyInSD View Post
keep dreaming - I've been hearing that story for around 15 years now...Boomers love working and many of them will keep doing so until they keel over on the job. Maybe in ANOTHER ten years - then Boomers will be leaving the workforce toes up on a gurney.
Pardon moi, but I am a Boomer, and my government wants me to work until I am 67. But thanks to some economic twists of fate my job will be up for grabs in about a year. I wont qualify for any SS benefits for several more years.

That same government wants the Millennials to work until age 70. Don't worry about the Boomers needing a gurney - worry about yourself, lol.
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Old 05-08-2020, 07:54 PM
 
Location: The Ozone Layer, apparently...
2,385 posts, read 893,038 times
Reputation: 5052
Quote:
Originally Posted by North Beach Person View Post
In all honesty, the Social Security payments saved from "those who've died" doesn't amount to much more than rounding error in the total outlay.

What will, and has, impacted Social Security is the loss of contributions from those who are now laid off.
The most prosperous time in our countries history is when?

War time.

WWII. The whole world lost a lot of men.

What are we losing the most of now with COVID-19? Could the death toll be compared to wartime? Are for some reason Men more vulnerable than women?

Why is wartime prosperous? Could it be because people die?
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Old 05-08-2020, 08:10 PM
 
Location: North Beach, MD on the Chesapeake
35,213 posts, read 45,194,826 times
Reputation: 45616
Quote:
Originally Posted by ComeCloser View Post
The most prosperous time in our countries history is when?

War time.

WWII. The whole world lost a lot of men.

What are we losing the most of now with COVID-19? Could the death toll be compared to wartime? Are for some reason Men more vulnerable than women?

Why is wartime prosperous? Could it be because people die?
Jesus, I don't believe you're asking these questions, it makes me question why I bothered teaching US History for 31 years.

Wartime is not profitable because people are dying but because the manufacturing sector is/was mobilized to produce all manner of goods for the war effort. You maybe could compare Ford making tanks to a company today that made plastic toys that repurposed to produce PPE.

The death toll, or even total illnesses, from this are not comparable to war casualties.
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Old 05-08-2020, 08:25 PM
 
Location: United States of Jerry Falwell
11,430 posts, read 5,317,907 times
Reputation: 9609
Quote:
Originally Posted by RJ312 View Post
I wish I knew. I don't. It personally took me over 5 years to recover from my ill timed 2008 graduation.

I've spent the entirety of my career either rebuilding from recession or getting decimated by one.
Same, and now I have to do it all over again. Maybe by 2028, in my 40s, I'll be able to get on with my life and finally achieve the milestones I should have in my twenties.

My mind is almost blown by how bad my economic luck has been as an adult. We only have one life to live.
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Old 05-08-2020, 11:17 PM
 
Location: The Ozone Layer, apparently...
2,385 posts, read 893,038 times
Reputation: 5052
Quote:
Originally Posted by North Beach Person View Post
Jesus, I don't believe you're asking these questions, it makes me question why I bothered teaching US History for 31 years.

Wartime is not profitable because people are dying but because the manufacturing sector is/was mobilized to produce all manner of goods for the war effort. You maybe could compare Ford making tanks to a company today that made plastic toys that repurposed to produce PPE.

The death toll, or even total illnesses, from this are not comparable to war casualties.
Why not? I mean, how many people worldwide have died in the past 6 months in China? Do we even really know how many people worldwide have fallen victim to this virus?

Over the past 24 hours (between 5/7 and 5/8) alone almost 1000 people died in New York state. Each person represents personal wealth commonly called an estate. That wealth will either be redistributed amongst family and friends or become the property of New York state.

1000 people in 24 hours in an area the size of New York state cannot be compared to a day's casualties during wartime on the same size land mass?

3.6 million case worldwide. 3.6 million people took a viral bullet. That cant be compared to wartime casualties either?

Are you sure, or you just don't want it that way?
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