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Old 05-09-2020, 05:17 AM
 
5,226 posts, read 2,907,269 times
Reputation: 6753

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Quote:
Originally Posted by bawac34618 View Post
Same, and now I have to do it all over again. Maybe by 2028, in my 40s, I'll be able to get on with my life and finally achieve the milestones I should have in my twenties.

My mind is almost blown by how bad my economic luck has been as an adult. We only have one life to live.
Since we are close in age, a lot of the 1982-1988 births are in the same boat.

The 1982-1988 cohort is going to be produce one of the lowest birthrates ever due to the double recession beatings at sensitive ages. Child affordability is not going to be there for the group. You're going to see a group of perpetual renters due to home affordability not being there. This is a group of people that will be perpetually stunted and scarred from recessions ruining their 20s and 30s.
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Old 05-09-2020, 10:55 AM
 
Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
2,691 posts, read 3,543,123 times
Reputation: 7499
If you take a world wide view, the airline industry, the cruise lines, the equity lenders, and the oil producers are going to hard pressed to stay afloat.


I cannot fathom how Boeing thinks they are going be able to sell those planes that they just started to build again in Seattle. With 90 percent of the world's aircraft sitting on the ground ?? Travel for fun is not going to come back, not when so many of the people who used to fly for vacations, are going to be either unemployed or afraid they will be unemployed in 4 months. With much reduced jet fuel being used, and the cruise lines not burning bunker oil, and those unemployed people not driving to work...the world wide oil glut will persist.


The cascade of US bankruptcies ( both corporate and personal ) are coming. The Americans who work for minimum wages will be the first to be hit. Their lack of meaningful job skills will result in them going to the food bank and the homeless shelters. The next cohort will be the workers whose employers go out of business. The small business owners who cannot compete and can't pay their rent, utilities, taxes and debts are going to have to try to get some thing for their equipment , but just how many bar tables and chairs will the reseller market absorb ? Or dishwashing machines or used delivery vans ?


The small size investors who bought buildings and rented them out to hair salons, barbers, pizza stores and corner stores, are now going to be squeezed by the bank they owe for their property loan, because their tenants can't pay their rent. Dry cleaners are going to find out that their former customers are going to stop using their services. Landscapers are going to see more customers cutting their own grass . Used car dealers are going to find that most people will be holding off on buying. People who have money will not be spending it .


The biggest international companies.. Buffet just sold off his holdings in the 4 largest airlines in the world.


KLM is negotiating with the Government of The Netherlands for a bail out loan. So is Lufthansa with Germany. Those are the flagship airlines of those 2 countries. The top 3 cruise lines in the world are all considering shutting down for at least 2 or 3 years. The Government of The Bahamas depends on tourism for 70 percent of their national income for their citizens, but there are no tourists.


Its not going to be easy.
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Old 05-09-2020, 04:39 PM
 
Location: United States of Jerry Falwell
11,430 posts, read 5,317,907 times
Reputation: 9609
Quote:
Originally Posted by RJ312 View Post
Since we are close in age, a lot of the 1982-1988 births are in the same boat.

The 1982-1988 cohort is going to be produce one of the lowest birthrates ever due to the double recession beatings at sensitive ages. Child affordability is not going to be there for the group. You're going to see a group of perpetual renters due to home affordability not being there. This is a group of people that will be perpetually stunted and scarred from recessions ruining their 20s and 30s.
Agreed.

I just hope I find love before I die. My chance to have a worthwhile career is likely gone forever. Best case scenario it would take me until I’m in my 40s to get back to where I was at 22. People don’t start lives and build careers when they are in their 40s. I’ll never own a home. Hopefully social security is still around when our generation reaches retirement age. I’ll be lucky if I don’t have to move back in with my parents.

My life is over.
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Old 05-09-2020, 04:49 PM
 
Location: San Francisco
3,895 posts, read 1,027,869 times
Reputation: 2329
Quote:
Originally Posted by bawac34618 View Post

Best case scenario it would take me until I’m in my 40s to get back to where I was at 22. People don’t start lives and build careers when they are in their 40s. I’ll never own a home. Hopefully social security is still around when our generation reaches retirement age. I’ll be lucky if I don’t have to move back in with my parents.

My life is over.
Then it takes you until you are in your forties to get back where you were (are you currently thirties); what's the alternative - give up (and wait for social security)?
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Old 05-09-2020, 04:56 PM
 
3,039 posts, read 1,369,170 times
Reputation: 2563
I agree. Much economic damage has been done and likely will continue for a while. The ONLY reason things are as good as they are is the amount of money the government has pumped into the economy. One day, there will be a price to pay for this (not saying it wasn't necessary). You can reopen businesses, but it will be a long time before many businesses return to pre-virus levels. It's all in what you compare it to. Compared to last month, it might look pretty good, but compared to pre-virus levels, it's gonna look abysmal. If there is a vaccine, cure, or effective treatment protocol, then yes, I think we can recover within 5 years. Without that, no. Retirees and others with a good bit of discretionary income are going to be very reluctant to return to restaurants, take a cruise, fly on an airplane, go to a sporting event, etc.

Quote:
Originally Posted by canadian citizen View Post
If you take a world wide view, the airline industry, the cruise lines, the equity lenders, and the oil producers are going to hard pressed to stay afloat.


I cannot fathom how Boeing thinks they are going be able to sell those planes that they just started to build again in Seattle. With 90 percent of the world's aircraft sitting on the ground ?? Travel for fun is not going to come back, not when so many of the people who used to fly for vacations, are going to be either unemployed or afraid they will be unemployed in 4 months. With much reduced jet fuel being used, and the cruise lines not burning bunker oil, and those unemployed people not driving to work...the world wide oil glut will persist.


The cascade of US bankruptcies ( both corporate and personal ) are coming. The Americans who work for minimum wages will be the first to be hit. Their lack of meaningful job skills will result in them going to the food bank and the homeless shelters. The next cohort will be the workers whose employers go out of business. The small business owners who cannot compete and can't pay their rent, utilities, taxes and debts are going to have to try to get some thing for their equipment , but just how many bar tables and chairs will the reseller market absorb ? Or dishwashing machines or used delivery vans ?


The small size investors who bought buildings and rented them out to hair salons, barbers, pizza stores and corner stores, are now going to be squeezed by the bank they owe for their property loan, because their tenants can't pay their rent. Dry cleaners are going to find out that their former customers are going to stop using their services. Landscapers are going to see more customers cutting their own grass . Used car dealers are going to find that most people will be holding off on buying. People who have money will not be spending it .


The biggest international companies.. Buffet just sold off his holdings in the 4 largest airlines in the world.


KLM is negotiating with the Government of The Netherlands for a bail out loan. So is Lufthansa with Germany. Those are the flagship airlines of those 2 countries. The top 3 cruise lines in the world are all considering shutting down for at least 2 or 3 years. The Government of The Bahamas depends on tourism for 70 percent of their national income for their citizens, but there are no tourists.


Its not going to be easy.
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Old 05-09-2020, 06:40 PM
 
Location: New Jersey
15,224 posts, read 14,618,177 times
Reputation: 6665
Depends on the virus. We are already in trouble but if there's a second wave that leads to another round of shutdowns, then game over. I am not counting on a vaccine, but hopefully they can come up with an effective treatment for the severest cases. Best case is finding a way to live with the virus this winter without shutting down the economy again. Either way, economic activity will be muted for the next several months to perhaps well into next year.

Numerous small businesses (restaurants, barbershops, salons, bowling alleys, etc.) could be gone. Thought the local strip mall was pretty vacant in the years following 2008? Well here we go again...

White collar layoffs may be coming as the new reality sets in. The WFH crowd is still paying their mortgage, stockpiling at the supermarket, buying from Amazon, streaming Netflix, etc. They have more discretionary income. The situation will get even more bleak if they get laid off in large numbers. And there goes the housing market...

Looking even further down the road after the virus is finally under control...there will be a huge debt overhang. I don't think inflation will be a major issue but will the stock market throw another taper tantrum when the Fed tries to unwind its balance sheet? Congress will be looking at spending cuts and tax increases. States have to have a balanced budget and with revenues drying up, they will have to cut.

Quote:
Originally Posted by canadian citizen
If you take a world wide view, the airline industry, the cruise lines, the equity lenders, and the oil producers are going to hard pressed to stay afloat.


I cannot fathom how Boeing thinks they are going be able to sell those planes that they just started to build again in Seattle. With 90 percent of the world's aircraft sitting on the ground ?? Travel for fun is not going to come back, not when so many of the people who used to fly for vacations, are going to be either unemployed or afraid they will be unemployed in 4 months. With much reduced jet fuel being used, and the cruise lines not burning bunker oil, and those unemployed people not driving to work...the world wide oil glut will persist.


The cascade of US bankruptcies ( both corporate and personal ) are coming. The Americans who work for minimum wages will be the first to be hit. Their lack of meaningful job skills will result in them going to the food bank and the homeless shelters. The next cohort will be the workers whose employers go out of business. The small business owners who cannot compete and can't pay their rent, utilities, taxes and debts are going to have to try to get some thing for their equipment , but just how many bar tables and chairs will the reseller market absorb ? Or dishwashing machines or used delivery vans ?


The small size investors who bought buildings and rented them out to hair salons, barbers, pizza stores and corner stores, are now going to be squeezed by the bank they owe for their property loan, because their tenants can't pay their rent. Dry cleaners are going to find out that their former customers are going to stop using their services. Landscapers are going to see more customers cutting their own grass . Used car dealers are going to find that most people will be holding off on buying. People who have money will not be spending it .


The biggest international companies.. Buffet just sold off his holdings in the 4 largest airlines in the world.


KLM is negotiating with the Government of The Netherlands for a bail out loan. So is Lufthansa with Germany. Those are the flagship airlines of those 2 countries. The top 3 cruise lines in the world are all considering shutting down for at least 2 or 3 years. The Government of The Bahamas depends on tourism for 70 percent of their national income for their citizens, but there are no tourists.


Its not going to be easy.
Agreed. Reverting decades back to a more essential, self-sufficient, back to the basics sort of economy. That could be a good thing in the long-run, especially if people finally start living within their means, but it could be a very painful adjustment.
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Old 05-09-2020, 10:25 PM
 
Location: NYC
16,402 posts, read 10,591,037 times
Reputation: 19310
The only bright side is that in 3 years or when we finally solve this virus problem there will be a lot of job openings. Many people will lose their lives and their jobs will need to be filled even if some jobs will be gone forever many will need to be replaced.
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Old 05-09-2020, 10:28 PM
 
27,961 posts, read 30,459,522 times
Reputation: 28153
Quote:
Originally Posted by bawac34618 View Post
Do you think there's any chance that the economy recovers within five years or is this the real deal?
Just my opinion, but no, not really. I kind of think there will be other setbacks in addition to the virus. When bad things happen they tend to pile up.
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Old 05-09-2020, 10:30 PM
 
27,961 posts, read 30,459,522 times
Reputation: 28153
Quote:
Originally Posted by bawac34618 View Post
15 years of economic ruin and misery is a pretty harsh reality. How much harsher can it get?
You need to study history a lot more closely. It can get a lot harsher.
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Old 05-09-2020, 10:36 PM
 
22,356 posts, read 8,996,527 times
Reputation: 10467
Quote:
Originally Posted by bawac34618 View Post
My chance to have a worthwhile career is likely gone forever. Best case scenario it would take me until I’m in my 40s to get back to where I was at 22. People don’t start lives and build careers when they are in their 40s. I’ll never own a home. Hopefully social security is still around when our generation reaches retirement age. I’ll be lucky if I don’t have to move back in with my parents.

My life is over.
Too much damage has been done by too massive a shutdown (which based on cases per capita, half the nation did not need) so anyone without a solid career going into the shutdown, and who isn't simply working from home at it, will face incredible odds of anything resembling what they had hoped for-for many years to come.
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