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9/11 wasn't contagious, or an issue person to person. It did trouble me when people felt it was strictly a NYC occurrence. After all, our country was attacked by outside forces. Do people have to feel personally affected to be interested in an attack on our country or our fellow citizens?
That's nothing like a virus, that is not an attack on the country, that is spreading all over the country. I fear that people outside of the urban Northeast will see it as a problem for decrepit old people, immigrants and people of color and find them all to be "other."
I was addressing the comment that this pandemic will affect NYC for generations to come.
We will see as we tend to overreact in the moment. Perhaps industries will stop clustering in the more urban areas, but maybe not.
Large corporations have been gradually reducing their employee counts in NYC for years and that's going to continue however I don't think it's going to be the mass exodus that some people are predicting. For starters, there's rumors that Cuomo will offer the big banks, insurance, and finance firms a state corporate tax cut in exchange for agreeing to keep their pre-COVID workforce numbers in NY. Now that doesn't mean they won't move outside NYC in favor of Westchester, the Hudson Valley, or Long Island. We on Long Island have had some success in getting city based entities to move more of their workforce out here in recent years ... both large national/multinational corporations and smaller businesses.
We will see as we tend to overreact in the moment. Perhaps industries will stop clustering in the more urban areas, but maybe not.
Those urban areas are where you have the critical mass of expertise and institutional knowledge to create intellectual property and innovate. They're filled with very intelligent people who are at the leading edge of the economy.
By and large, these kinds of people want to live somewhere urban, diverse, with a lot of amenities. They don't want to move to my section of nowhere Tennessee.
Before COVID, one of the biggest challenges at my company was hiring and retaining quality staff. If someone doesn't have local connections, it's almost impossible to get them to apply. We don't pay well enough to attract people from Nashville or Charlotte. The area doesn't have the amenities a lot of white collar professionals look for.
I don't doubt that some NYC operations will move, but there isn't going to be some mass exodus from major urban areas.
Things aren't going to recover overnight like Trump and many Republicans are claiming but it won't take 5 years either. My guess is we will start seeing a significant turnaround in mid 2021 or early 2022. Yeah, things are going to be really, really bad for the next year or so despite Trump and his economic advisors peddling these fantasies about a return to full employment by July and other nonsense.
Which advisor said we'd see full employment again by July?
I just hope I find love before I die. My chance to have a worthwhile career is likely gone forever. Best case scenario it would take me until I’m in my 40s to get back to where I was at 22. People don’t start lives and build careers when they are in their 40s. I’ll never own a home. Hopefully social security is still around when our generation reaches retirement age. I’ll be lucky if I don’t have to move back in with my parents.
My life is over.
You don't know me and this may be crossing the line a little but you should consider a bit of a mental reset.
1). Per your post about 12 back and your little tagline........and I say this as an atheist using evangelicals as scapegoats for outcomes your don't like is incredibly feeble intellectually.
2). Guessing you are in your early 30s.........if you don't allow your, "bad luck" to ruin your financial life it will not.
You don't know me and this may be crossing the line a little but you should consider a bit of a mental reset.
1). Per your post about 12 back and your little tagline........and I say this as an atheist using evangelicals as scapegoats for outcomes your don't like is incredibly feeble intellectually.
2). Guessing you are in your early 30s.........if you don't allow your, "bad luck" to ruin your financial life it will not.
I think some people just want a little empathy. I know how the guy likely feels. It's easy to feel like you're drowning when you're not making it relative to what you thought you might, especially if family has expectations. E.g.: my dad would hound me about why I hadn't done x or y by z age yet. Well, I couldn't replicate what he did, but he had trouble understanding why. Church communities too can be oppressive with the benchmark-judging when it comes to kids and family. It's honestly why I stopped going.
We're in a pretty crappy situation right now, but it's divergent. Some people are doing okay or even thriving if you were set up alright. If you weren't set up well going into covid, it's likely to be at least a year before you right your ship. Other than grocery stores, no one's hiring now if you don't have specialized IT skills that can be done from home. Even that's hard to get if you're starting out. If you're one of the unemployed people who's job went away for good, or you're trying to find a starting point... there really isn't much of an option until covid is behind us.
Locally, EVERY business I know, including my own workplace, has laid off no fewer than 10% of their work-forces. Laid off, not furloughed. They hope to bring back their furloughed people but it's not at all clear if they will be able to or what percentage. There is no hiring. My employer has said the hiring freeze will be in place through 2020, unless literally someone essential dies or quits. Where I work is a substantial employer in my area.
And all the while, if you keep with economic news, you also see all these damned personal finance articles about what benchmarks you should be hitting by age twenty- or thirty-whatever.
Then social media puts everyone's best-looking fake lives on display and it can be depressing when you don't think you measure up. I blame social media the most for the various "millennial" whining. We're expected to put on a show for the world and then be judged by it. When we use the same social media to vent about it, people gang up on us, tell us we should buck up & the problem is us.
In the BeforeTimes, maybe the problem was us. But for at least the coming year, it is legitimately not us.
Which advisor said we'd see full employment again by July?
Larry Kudlow ... he said it in response to reporters question about a new round of stimulus checks as in "we don't need to send out another round of stimulus checks because we will be back to full employment by July and then people can go back to work".
I'm not sure that we'll go back to how exactly things were. With that said, a lot of people seem to be discounting human nature. A common refrain is that all the bars will go bankrupt. Sure, a lot of current bars will probably fold. Drinking preferences may have to adjust to a new income reality. We might be drinking $1 PBRs or Rolling Rock instead of 10 oz. $7 pours of the latest bourbon barrel aged stout.
With that said, people want to drink with other people. There have been pandemics, world wars, civil wars, major natural disasters, etc., and the concept of the bar remains. It's not going anywhere.
This is Exhibit A for what I was talking about people not understanding how profound the changes are going to be.
Unfortunately, America hasn't really gone through any serious hardship since the Great Depression and WW2. The changes coming in the near future will be worse than those, IMO.
Of course there's a chance the economy recovers in 5 years, IMO a very good chance. And what does "the real deal" even mean? Are you implying the economy is ruined for good? No one, and I mean NO ONE knows with certainty where the economy will be in 5 years. It might be much, much better. It could be much, much worse. Or anything in between. My biggest worry right now is boredom. Many others who I've talked to feel the same.
I think the economy could recover in 2 years.
Many unemployed people are on furlough - and many will return to their jobs. Others are choosing to remain on UI benefits because the benefits pay more than what they earned when they were working.
So although the unemployment numbers look bad, the job outlook for actually getting a job is not as grim as many people believe.
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