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Covid will lead many to liquidate, which, w/o covid, reorganize.
I expect despite their claims, JCP & Kmart to liquidate during 2020. Most likely each lasts a few more years w/o covid. The extra years closed = extra covid job losses.
I'm not high on Neiman Marcus lasting long, either, again sped up liquidation due to covid I expect-no matter their public statements.
No one will offer a retailer the true seed money needed to endure covid style revenue draconian shrinkage.
JCP had a FRISK score of 1 as of the first quarter of last year (as did Neiman Marcus); it's not particularly relevant to Covid-19 (other than perhaps salt in their fiscal wounds). Kmart's been dying for years - and was previously in (then out of) bankruptcy a few years ago.
It will bounce back when a vaccine is developed (or even a treatment to lessen the severity of symptoms). Biotech, start-ups, pharma, research institutes and universities are working 24/7 to do so - according to WHO (and several CEOs), the end of 2021 is the target.
In the meantime, there will be a level of fear and pessimism (as evidenced by this forum).
I do know that the American situation is different to ours. But we are coming out of eight weeks of shutdowns and I think people are upbeat here. They were discussing permanent changes, for example, in the projected number of people who will work from home. Pre virus was 5% and they are expecting it to rise to 10%. Enough to have an effect but not catastrophically. People will still be spending money on transport, business clothes and queueing for their coffee in the city.
I will put money on almost no increase in this country in home schooling. Last week our Reserve Bank downgraded the projected contraction in the economy from 10% to 8%.
Tourism is a problem everywhere but obviously countries need to encourage their residents to spend their money at home. It is Mother’s Day in Australia today and our daughters were able to visit. Their families will be able to come next weekend, which is pretty exciting for us. Our conversation was about the daughters changing the planned holidays in Japan to a local one, ours from Kenya to perhaps New Zealand.
Obviously there is unemployment, projected to rise from 5% to 10%. But I think economies and people are more resilient than many expect.
Anyway, hope I am right. It is also widely expected here that there will be a vaccine within a year.
JCP had a FRISK score of 1 as of the first quarter of last year (as did Neiman Marcus); it's not particularly relevant to Covid-19 (other than perhaps salt in their fiscal wounds). Kmart's been dying for years - and was previously in (then out of) bankruptcy a few years ago.
While I agree all 3 would die, I do not think any would die, in full, in 2020, w/o covid. Living a few years less = fewer jobs in 2020.
We're in the midst of a horrific long term economic decline. There won't even be an illusory recovery this time like there was after the last crisis. The good 'ol days of 2019 are never coming back. People need to wake up. Stop looking at pretty rainbows and look at the harsh reality.
Hah I saw this thread title and came in to type "Taggerung end of days post in 3, 2, 1..." but alas you were too quick on the draw.
I stand bowed and humble before your lightning quick doomsday reply capabilities, and will commit to working hard to better my abilities to perhaps someday best you.
In my opinion, this will be a small recession that will last a couple of years at most. No where near The Great Depression like some people are saying. It won’t even be as bad as the 2008 recession.
It’s interesting that some of you throw out time frames for recovery of 5 to 15 years when the U.S economy is the most powerful on Earth, and arguably the most powerful in human history. Countries like Japan and Germany, that had every major and intermediate city reduced to ash with fire bombing recovered faster than that, and that was decades ago.
Too much damage has been done by too massive a shutdown (which based on cases per capita, half the nation did not need) so anyone without a solid career going into the shutdown, and who isn't simply working from home at it, will face incredible odds of anything resembling what they had hoped for-for many years to come.
Completely agreed.
We've had a little over 300 total cases in my TV viewing area of about 500k, yet everything closed down. We've never come close to reaching hospital capacity, the hospital had to stop most of its revenue generating procedures, and actually furloughed a bunch of people.
I can see closing bars, big events, etc., but why shut everything down? A lot of these small businesses won't recover and who knows if and when those people find other jobs.
While I agree all 3 would die, I do not think any would die, in full, in 2020, w/o covid. Living a few years less = fewer jobs in 2020.
FRISK scores determine probability of bankruptcy within twelve months (and we're just beyond that twelve-month time frame now for JCP and Neiman Marcus, with or without the pandemic).
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