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View Poll Results: Economic conditions in the United States in January 2022.
Expansion 56 54.37%
recession 24 23.30%
depression 23 22.33%
Voters: 103. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 05-22-2020, 04:05 PM
 
Location: Oregon, formerly Texas
6,384 posts, read 4,326,658 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Elliott_CA View Post
Poll: Economic conditions in the United States in January 2022.

Expansion or contraction relative to what? Quarter over quarter, year over year? Spring 2021 Y-o-Y will show lots of growth due to the easy comparison with spring 2020.


It all depends on whether or not a 2nd wave of the virus appears next winter, how severe it is, and whether or not a vaccine or proven treatment regimen is developed in time. Who knows. For the poll I took the optimistic side, assuming weak "growth" based on an easy comparison to Jan 2020....
Yes, it pretty much all depends on whether there is a 2nd wave. I'd say a wave in the winter of 2020-21 even half as bad as the March-April 2020 one, it will kill economic confidence across the board and crash the markets back down to the 20k level at least. A bad 2nd wave of cities other than NYC getting hit hard will crash them worse.

Either way, I don't think economy will come back like a light switch. It's going to be a while to get 40 million people into jobs again. Every week that goes by in this environment is more jobs that aren't coming back anytime soon.
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Old 05-22-2020, 06:40 PM
 
Location: Proxima Centauri
5,746 posts, read 2,414,651 times
Reputation: 6037
Everyone who survives the virus will be inoculated. The economy will be coming out of a recession and the Democratic House, Senate, and President will raise corporate taxes and close some loopholes.


And unless you unionize, no more raises for you.
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Old 05-23-2020, 09:40 AM
 
Location: Washington Park, Denver
8,082 posts, read 7,505,926 times
Reputation: 9105
Quote:
Originally Posted by Katie the heartbreaker View Post
I put depression as my vote, but I really believe we are going through a transformation into a totally new economic and political system. I also believe that 2019 was the last year of the United States as we knew it. If you think I am nuts, that is okay. I just wanted to give you my perspective.
My problem is that your perspective is not informed by any data or models. It’s just a belief you have. People also believe the earth is flat. I don’t give their beliefs equal space in my brain either.
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Old 05-23-2020, 12:00 PM
 
2,600 posts, read 990,345 times
Reputation: 6538
Quote:
Originally Posted by SkyDog77 View Post
My problem is that your perspective is not informed by any data or models. It’s just a belief you have. People also believe the earth is flat. I don’t give their beliefs equal space in my brain either.
‘Tis but a scratch...

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Old 05-23-2020, 03:36 PM
 
Location: Washington Park, Denver
8,082 posts, read 7,505,926 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TimAZ View Post
‘Tis but a scratch...
And? I don’t dispute this. How do you get from here to the entire economic model is going to be remade? I agree that we are likely at the beginning of the worst recession we’ve faced in our lifetimes. That doesn’t mean the system is about to collapse. That’s a fairly big leap to make.
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Old 05-23-2020, 04:16 PM
 
2,600 posts, read 990,345 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SkyDog77 View Post
And? I don’t dispute this. How do you get from here to the entire economic model is going to be remade? I agree that we are likely at the beginning of the worst recession we’ve faced in our lifetimes. That doesn’t mean the system is about to collapse. That’s a fairly big leap to make.
This pandemic and economic crisis coincides with a generational changing of the guard — it’s straight out of Strauss & Howe’s Fourth Turning. The Boomers are out and the Gen-X/Millennials are assuming control. There is no love lost between them and the Boomers, and I expect we will see significant changes in the way institutions are structured and managed. The cyclical fourth turning was described as beginning in the late ‘00s:

a sudden spark will catalyze a Crisis mood. Remnants of the old social order will disintegrate. Political and economic trust will implode. Real hardship will beset the land, with severe distress that could involve questions of class, race, nation, and empire. . .The very survival of the nation will feel at stake. Sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II.

You are correct in that change does not equal collapse.
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Old 05-23-2020, 04:50 PM
 
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
1,175 posts, read 725,962 times
Reputation: 2953
Quote:
Originally Posted by SkyDog77 View Post
My problem is that your perspective is not informed by any data or models. It’s just a belief you have. People also believe the earth is flat. I don’t give their beliefs equal space in my brain either.

I will do my best to give you my perspective while staying within the rules. Late last year, the yield curves began to invert and then there was a crisis started in the repo markets. This is when the fed said we are doing QE but it is not QE (?). I follow a lot of different "alternative economists" and all of them said we are on red alert and the economy is about to crash. The fed started injecting more and more money into the repo markets, first saying it was temporary, but then extending it and raising the daily infusions. Then all of a sudden we get this virus, and are locked down for the first time ever.



I start to notice things that do not make sense. All the big box stores stay open, while all the small businesses are forced to shut down. They promise them loans, but the large corporations steal them leaving the small businesses to go under. Unemployment was raised +$600 a week over the state unemployment. Personally, I am making 3 times what I made working on unemployment. This sounds great, but it was done so that people like me will not want to return to work, and the small businesses who survive the shutdown will not be able to find any employee's. This sinister plan is not seen by most people, but I can see it clear as day.



When we look at the virus, the news has been caught staging fake hospital rooms with mannequins, fake lines to get tested, etc. The hospitals are empty, but we are in an epidemic? All of this points to the virus being used as a cover for the resulting economic collapse. The resulting economic collapse will then transition us into a totally new economic and political system ie problem, reaction, solution. For me to continue, it will be too political so I will have to end it here.

Last edited by Katie the heartbreaker; 05-23-2020 at 05:09 PM..
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Old 05-23-2020, 06:23 PM
 
Location: Washington Park, Denver
8,082 posts, read 7,505,926 times
Reputation: 9105
Quote:
Originally Posted by TimAZ View Post
This pandemic and economic crisis coincides with a generational changing of the guard — it’s straight out of Strauss & Howe’s Fourth Turning. The Boomers are out and the Gen-X/Millennials are assuming control. There is no love lost between them and the Boomers, and I expect we will see significant changes in the way institutions are structured and managed. The cyclical fourth turning was described as beginning in the late ‘00s:

a sudden spark will catalyze a Crisis mood. Remnants of the old social order will disintegrate. Political and economic trust will implode. Real hardship will beset the land, with severe distress that could involve questions of class, race, nation, and empire. . .The very survival of the nation will feel at stake. Sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II.

You are correct in that change does not equal collapse.
The amount of logical leaps you are making is frankly astounding.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Katie the heartbreaker View Post
I will do my best to give you my perspective while staying within the rules. Late last year, the yield curves began to invert and then there was a crisis started in the repo markets. This is when the fed said we are doing QE but it is not QE (?). I follow a lot of different "alternative economists" and all of them said we are on red alert and the economy is about to crash. The fed started injecting more and more money into the repo markets, first saying it was temporary, but then extending it and raising the daily infusions. Then all of a sudden we get this virus, and are locked down for the first time ever.



I start to notice things that do not make sense. All the big box stores stay open, while all the small businesses are forced to shut down. They promise them loans, but the large corporations steal them leaving the small businesses to go under. Unemployment was raised +$600 a week over the state unemployment. Personally, I am making 3 times what I made working on unemployment. This sounds great, but it was done so that people like me will not want to return to work, and the small businesses who survive the shutdown will not be able to find any employee's. This sinister plan is not seen by most people, but I can see it clear as day.



When we look at the virus, the news has been caught staging fake hospital rooms with mannequins, fake lines to get tested, etc. The hospitals are empty, but we are in an epidemic? All of this points to the virus being used as a cover for the resulting economic collapse. The resulting economic collapse will then transition us into a totally new economic and political system ie problem, reaction, solution. For me to continue, it will be too political so I will have to end it here.
Yeah. Not even going to touch this other than to say it terrifies me that your vote counts as much as mine.
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Old 05-23-2020, 06:53 PM
 
2,600 posts, read 990,345 times
Reputation: 6538
Quote:
Originally Posted by SkyDog77 View Post
The amount of logical leaps you are making is frankly astounding.
Says the dude who uses “The Simpsons” as a basis for economic insight. Well, on second thought Homer might have a leg up on Paul Krugman.
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Old 05-23-2020, 08:09 PM
 
Location: Washington Park, Denver
8,082 posts, read 7,505,926 times
Reputation: 9105
Quote:
Originally Posted by TimAZ View Post
Says the dude who uses “The Simpsons” as a basis for economic insight. Well, on second thought Homer might have a leg up on Paul Krugman.
It seemed a fitting response.

Smetters is one of my favorite economists though. Kind sounds like Smithers.
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