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WSJ: For Economy, Worst of Coronavirus Shutdowns May Be Over
Recovering air travel, hotel bookings and mortgage applications are among the early signs the U.S. economy is slowly creeping back to life
Quote:
For economic activity overall, however, “we’re seeing some positive signals in household spending, in the real-estate market, and in the stock market,” said University of Chicago economist Constantine Yannelis, who worked in the Obama administration Treasury Department. “But I don’t think we can predict whether those are going to continue and this is going to be a V-shaped recovery or this is going to be a sustained, prolonged depression. Really, the answer to that is going to come from the health situation.”
Doomers predicted the airline industry would never recover from 9/11. They're one trick ponies, fun to watch because they're always wrong. They are persistent. Persistently wrong....lol this is just more of the same drivel, 19 years later.
This will be a very simple public poll. Where will the United States be in January 2022?
Biggest bust since The Great Depression starting in the back half of this year into 2021. By January 2022 (the date you listed) we will start to see an industrial-led inflationary recovery cycle.
Just for reference, back in 2019 in what was touted as "The Greatest Economy" ever, I correctly predicted a correction in early 2020 that would "fry the little grasshoppers" and a recession by the middle of 2020. No one was predicting that back then. People laughed and called names on here when I was posting about it. Someone actually wagered me a 6 to 7 figure bet on here it wouldn't happen.
Then in March of 2020 when everyone was running for the hills (at DJI 19K or so), I correctly called the "moonshot" move higher in equities (this is still ongoing and will be into the summer). People called me all sorts of names at the time and told me how wrong I was. They missed out on a 30%+/- move so far. All documented in the investing forum.
The biggest bust since The Great Depression starts after the moonshot move is fully completed this summer. Stocks will go down 50-75% in the bust.
Biggest bust since The Great Depression starting in the back half of this year into 2021. By January 2022 (the date you listed) we will start to see an industrial-led inflationary recovery cycle.
Just for reference, back in 2019 in what was touted as "The Greatest Economy" ever, I correctly predicted a correction in early 2020 that would "fry the little grasshoppers" and a recession by the middle of 2020. No one was predicting that back then. People laughed and called names on here when I was posting about it. Someone actually wagered me a 6 to 7 figure bet on here it wouldn't happen.
Then in March of 2020 when everyone was running for the hills (at DJI 19K or so), I correctly called the "moonshot" move higher in equities (this is still ongoing and will be into the summer). People called me all sorts of names at the time and told me how wrong I was. They missed out on a 30%+/- move so far. All documented in the investing forum.
The biggest bust since The Great Depression starts after the moonshot move is fully completed this summer. Stocks will go down 50-75% in the bust.
Why? If you know something nobody else does, can you share it? Not doubting your accuracy. Just curious about your methodology.
I will never put stock in anything I don’t understand. People make prognostications all time. If they can’t explain them, I have a hard believing that they’re doing more than guessing.
Not saying that’s the case with you, but very interested in your “why.”
Why? If you know something nobody else does, can you share it? Not doubting your accuracy. Just curious about your methodology.
I will never put stock in anything I don’t understand. People make prognostications all time. If they can’t explain them, I have a hard believing that they’re doing more than guessing.
Not saying that’s the case with you, but very interested in your “why.”
SkyDog, a CliffsNotes version on the whys.
Back in the middle to middle-end of 2019 I became worried due to 3 main factors. About-face consecutive rate cuts when the prior narrative was a move toward tightening, a yield curve inversion, and then the big tell for me that trouble was ahead was the repo market crisis. The narrative quickly changed from this is a one-week problem to the Fed having an "indefinite" hand in the repo market.
Fast forward to March 2020 and the popular narrative was we were heading much lower. Financial press was very negative, sentiment was extremely negative, and you had big boys like Ackman acting hysterical on live TV saying stuff like he went to the bank to withdraw as much cash as he could. He even said Hilton was going to zero yet he was buying it lol. It came out later that he made $2-3 billion off of his short positions during this hysteria. I felt like the big players were loading up at the time combined with the fact the Fed took their balance sheet from about $4 trillion to $7 trillion in about a month. Huge upside jolt for equities in this environment all with many retail investors running scared. The Fed has much more to go by the end of summer. I think they get to $9-$10 trillion before the summer is over. This will continue to fuel equities in the shorter-term.
By the end of summer if my "moonshot" call is correct, we will stand back at record highs. I think we will be at DOW 30-35K at some point by the middle of August at the latest. Things are opening back up quicker than expected, more stimulus checks are coming, many people will want to get out of lock-up and spend that money, and then you have the Fed continuing to expand their balance sheet in record order. All extremely bullish for stocks in the shorter-term.
With that said, if we get back to record highs, the narrative is going to be Wall Street got disproportionately bailed out (again) while Main Street got a few "measly" stimulus checks. Main Street will not be happy and the media narrative toward Wall Street will be a negative one. This combined with some inflation (unfounded) fears will ultimately cause the Fed to step off the gas. The popular narrative will be everything is back to normal and we are going back to "the greatest economy ever." This will be a false narrative as the Fed's action over the past 10 months or so going back to the aforementioned stuff in 2019 has introduced even more leverage and complexity into the system. The Fed stepping off the pedal will set the great unwind into motion.
During the bust the Fed will ultimately expand their balance sheet into the $15-$20 trillion range into the middle of 2021 as they throw everything at the greatest deflationary pressures we have seen since The Great Depression. They will overshoot but there will be a lag effect. We won't start to see the green shoots of a recovery cycle and real inflation until later 2021 into 2022. Contributing to the inflationary pressures the Fed will have created in taking their balance sheet to these levels will be an onshoring movement as the rhetoric against China continues to escalate. We will be heading into an industrially-led inflationary recovery cycle.
Back in the middle to middle-end of 2019 I became worried due to 3 main factors. About-face consecutive rate cuts when the prior narrative was a move toward tightening, a yield curve inversion, and then the big tell for me that trouble was ahead was the repo market crisis. The narrative quickly changed from this is a one-week problem to the Fed having an "indefinite" hand in the repo market.
Fast forward to March 2020 and the popular narrative was we were heading much lower. Financial press was very negative, sentiment was extremely negative, and you had big boys like Ackman acting hysterical on live TV saying stuff like he went to the bank to withdraw as much cash as he could. He even said Hilton was going to zero yet he was buying it lol. It came out later that he made $2-3 billion off of his short positions during this hysteria. I felt like the big players were loading up at the time combined with the fact the Fed took their balance sheet from about $4 trillion to $7 trillion in about a month. Huge upside jolt for equities in this environment all with many retail investors running scared. The Fed has much more to go by the end of summer. I think they get to $9-$10 trillion before the summer is over. This will continue to fuel equities in the shorter-term.
By the end of summer if my "moonshot" call is correct, we will stand back at record highs. I think we will be at DOW 30-35K at some point by the middle of August at the latest. Things are opening back up quicker than expected, more stimulus checks are coming, many people will want to get out of lock-up and spend that money, and then you have the Fed continuing to expand their balance sheet in record order. All extremely bullish for stocks in the shorter-term.
With that said, if we get back to record highs, the narrative is going to be Wall Street got disproportionately bailed out (again) while Main Street got a few "measly" stimulus checks. Main Street will not be happy and the media narrative toward Wall Street will be a negative one. This combined with some inflation (unfounded) fears will ultimately cause the Fed to step off the gas. The popular narrative will be everything is back to normal and we are going back to "the greatest economy ever." This will be a false narrative as the Fed's action over the past 10 months or so going back to the aforementioned stuff in 2019 has introduced even more leverage and complexity into the system. The Fed stepping off the pedal will set the great unwind into motion.
During the bust the Fed will ultimately expand their balance sheet into the $15-$20 trillion range into the middle of 2021 as they throw everything at the greatest deflationary pressures we have seen since The Great Depression. They will overshoot but there will be a lag effect. We won't start to see the green shoots of a recovery cycle and real inflation until later 2021 into 2022. Contributing to the inflationary pressures the Fed will have created in taking their balance sheet to these levels will be an onshoring movement as the rhetoric against China continues to escalate. We will be heading into an industrially-led inflationary recovery cycle.
Interesting. Do the election results matter in your thinking? Does onshoring happen as quickly if we don’t have the tweeter in chief making tons of racket? Many firms have been moving to other Asian countries already. Are you saying they will scrap these investments and now move production domestic? I have a hard time seeing how that makes economic sense. I do believe that globalization is taking a hit regardless of the election outcome, but I think the degree to which it is impacted is going to depend on who wins in November.
I’ve spoken to several former Fed officials and they seem to think the Fed will be comfortable up to 5% inflation before intervening. They don’t believe they would change behavior simply because of inflation rumblings.
What is your confidence level that the Dow hits 30-35K? Stock prices are ultimately a present value of future earnings. Why do you think investors are going to see that much upside in earning? That’s a massive lift from what one could argue is already a fairly aggressively priced market.
Doomers predicted the airline industry would never recover from 9/11. They're one trick ponies, fun to watch because they're always wrong. They are persistent. Persistently wrong....lol this is just more of the same drivel, 19 years later.
Doomers are always wrong because you will never let us be right. After being wrong about 2018, I stood back and watched for signs that a recession was coming. After watching the yields curve invert and the repo market crisis, I knew that it would definitely be coming in 2 years. I was the only one in the thread who thought so, and I was attacked by a bunch of Trump supporters saying I was wrong and that we would be fine until the end of 2024. I brought this up recently, and they claimed I was still wrong. I was wrong because this was caused by the COVID 19 fiasco. Yeah, whatever. This is why I had to put that black swans are included in the poll!
9-22-2019
Quote:
Originally Posted by Katie the heartbreaker
I think it is time to just let this thread die as everything that needs to be said has already been said. The summary is.
Conservatives think the recession will not start until after 2024.
My prediction is it will start before the end of 2021.
Now all we need to do it wait.
Last edited by Katie the heartbreaker; 05-25-2020 at 04:25 PM..
IF ONLY NOT FOR THIS OR THAT ..seems to be the war cry of the gloomers ....there is always something that alters the course of what they think that makes them wrong .it’s always if Not for , I would be right ....nope that still makes you wrong.
YES fed policy and action is all part of down cycles
Last edited by mathjak107; 05-25-2020 at 04:33 PM..
IF ONLY NOT FOR THIS OR THAT ..seems to be the war cry of the gloomers ....there is always something that alters the course of what they think that makes them wrong .it’s always if Not for , I would be right ....nope that still makes you wrong.
YES fed policy and action is all part of down cycles
I can already see how the conversation in January 2022 is going to go. I am not predicting the below is going to happen, just making up an example of how us doomers can never win.
Katie "Us doomers were right! We are in the worst depression ever in the United States."
Mathjak " No, you doomers were wrong again as usual. Dow Jones is about to hit 100,000 this week. My portfolio has done the best it ever has over the last year and a half since you started this thread."
Katie "You are right about the Dow, but it now costs $1,000 to buy a gallon of milk! Unemployment is at 40%. Homelessness has exploded and people are starving in the streets."
Mathjak "Face it Katie, you were wrong. You predicted a depression when you started this thread. The Dow has made 400% in gains since you started the thread. If we were in a depression, the stock market would have crashed.
Katie "I never said anything about the stock market crashing in the thread."
Mathjak "Katie, you were wrong. You doomers always are."
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Yeah, whatever. This is why I had to put that black swans are included in the poll!
