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View Poll Results: Economic conditions in the United States in January 2022.
Expansion 56 54.37%
recession 24 23.30%
depression 23 22.33%
Voters: 103. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 05-18-2020, 06:02 AM
 
Location: Boston
12,976 posts, read 3,740,375 times
Reputation: 9229

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auto assembly plants reopening today. Skilled workers back to work. The unskilled will have the hardest time returning because anybody can do unskilled labor.

This will be a big disappointment to the Doomers out there. I'm sure some will swing by the thread claiming the US will never recover. Funny stuff.
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Old 05-18-2020, 07:19 AM
 
2,600 posts, read 991,581 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skeddy View Post
auto assembly plants reopening today. Skilled workers back to work. The unskilled will have the hardest time returning because anybody can do unskilled labor.

This will be a big disappointment to the Doomers out there. I'm sure some will swing by the thread claiming the US will never recover. Funny stuff.
Who buys the automobiles assembled by those “skilled workers”? In economics everything of importance happens at the margins. Unemployed people are disinclined to purchase big ticket items *at the margin*.
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Old 05-18-2020, 07:24 AM
 
Location: Washington Park, Denver
8,082 posts, read 7,509,836 times
Reputation: 9105
McKinsey surveyed global business leaders on what their expectations were for the shape of the recovery. Most expect a Nike "Swoosh" shape "A1" or “A3” in the chart below.

Interesting to note for the people projecting prolonged doom, only 3% of business leaders see that happening.

https://www.mckinsey.com/business-fu...navirus-crisis




Last edited by SkyDog77; 05-18-2020 at 08:49 AM..
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Old 05-18-2020, 09:12 AM
 
951 posts, read 321,017 times
Reputation: 3277
Bloodbath
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Old 05-18-2020, 10:12 AM
 
Location: Oregon, formerly Texas
6,384 posts, read 4,328,694 times
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Assuming the pandemic is behind us.
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Old 05-18-2020, 10:48 AM
 
Location: Boston
12,976 posts, read 3,740,375 times
Reputation: 9229
Quote:
Originally Posted by TimAZ View Post
Who buys the automobiles assembled by those “skilled workers”? In economics everything of importance happens at the margins. Unemployed people are disinclined to purchase big ticket items *at the margin*.
Plenty of people not financially effected by CV.
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Old 05-18-2020, 02:02 PM
 
Location: Tennessee
27,608 posts, read 20,598,978 times
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If there is a relatively quick vaccine or treatment, we could come out of this relatively quickly. If there is a major resurgence in the fall or winter, or treatment/vaccine outlook looks bleak, it could be a depression.
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Old 05-18-2020, 05:17 PM
 
Location: Oregon, formerly Texas
6,384 posts, read 4,328,694 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Serious Conversation View Post
If there is a relatively quick vaccine or treatment, we could come out of this relatively quickly. If there is a major resurgence in the fall or winter, or treatment/vaccine outlook looks bleak, it could be a depression.
Yup, that is the big question indeed.

It worries me because there's truth to the notion that coronaviruses don't like heat & solar radiation. It won't completely go away because of summer, but it could spread less. Then come back with a vengeance.
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Old 05-18-2020, 08:14 PM
 
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
1,175 posts, read 726,442 times
Reputation: 2953
Quote:
Originally Posted by skeddy View Post
auto assembly plants reopening today. Skilled workers back to work. The unskilled will have the hardest time returning because anybody can do unskilled labor.

This will be a big disappointment to the Doomers out there. I'm sure some will swing by the thread claiming the US will never recover. Funny stuff.

"We have hit bottom and are on the upswing."
... Sec. of Labor James Davis,
September 1930.
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Old 05-18-2020, 08:52 PM
 
Location: Tennessee
27,608 posts, read 20,598,978 times
Reputation: 33431
Quote:
Originally Posted by Katie the heartbreaker View Post
"We have hit bottom and are on the upswing."
... Sec. of Labor James Davis,
September 1930.
Immaterial.

We haven't been here before. The closest modern parallel for a disease-induced economic slowdown is the 1918 flu pandemic, but you also have to remember much of the developed world was then ravaged by war. The war dealt an unbelievable amount of economic devastation, and it is hard to tease out what devastation was from the pandemic vs. what was leftover from the war.
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