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View Poll Results: Economic conditions in the United States in January 2022.
Expansion 56 54.37%
recession 24 23.30%
depression 23 22.33%
Voters: 103. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 05-19-2020, 12:35 AM
 
Location: Oregon, formerly Texas
6,384 posts, read 4,328,694 times
Reputation: 11078

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Serious Conversation View Post
Immaterial.

We haven't been here before. The closest modern parallel for a disease-induced economic slowdown is the 1918 flu pandemic, but you also have to remember much of the developed world was then ravaged by war. The war dealt an unbelievable amount of economic devastation, and it is hard to tease out what devastation was from the pandemic vs. what was leftover from the war.
Probably more than we give it credit for. In fact the pandemic probably had more influence on ending ww1 than we give it credit for.
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Old 05-19-2020, 07:27 AM
 
Location: Washington Park, Denver
8,082 posts, read 7,509,836 times
Reputation: 9105
Quote:
Originally Posted by Serious Conversation View Post
Immaterial.

We haven't been here before. The closest modern parallel for a disease-induced economic slowdown is the 1918 flu pandemic, but you also have to remember much of the developed world was then ravaged by war. The war dealt an unbelievable amount of economic devastation, and it is hard to tease out what devastation was from the pandemic vs. what was leftover from the war.
There also wasn’t a powerful central bank to help ease the pain that time around. I know there are those in this thread who think that’s a bad thing, but the reason we aren’t already in a depression is because The Fed has been acting.
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Old 05-19-2020, 08:31 AM
 
Location: Tennessee
27,608 posts, read 20,598,978 times
Reputation: 33431
Quote:
Originally Posted by SkyDog77 View Post
There also wasn’t a powerful central bank to help ease the pain that time around. I know there are those in this thread who think that’s a bad thing, but the reason we aren’t already in a depression is because The Fed has been acting.
The Fed has saved the politicians on more than one occasion.
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Old 05-19-2020, 08:42 AM
 
Location: Heart of flyover America
644 posts, read 255,042 times
Reputation: 1222
Quote:
Originally Posted by SkyDog77 View Post
There also wasn’t a powerful central bank to help ease the pain that time around. I know there are those in this thread who think that’s a bad thing, but the reason we aren’t already in a depression is because The Fed has been acting.
Everything the Fed is doing is only postponing the final collapse and in doing so, making it all the more calamitous when it does happen.
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Old 05-19-2020, 09:03 AM
 
Location: Washington Park, Denver
8,082 posts, read 7,509,836 times
Reputation: 9105
Quote:
Originally Posted by Taggerung View Post
Everything the Fed is doing is only postponing the final collapse and in doing so, making it all the more calamitous when it does happen.
This is your religion. I’m not going to argue it with you. It’s intellectually stimulating to discuss economic models, but not religion. I asked you for data and a model and you can’t provide.
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Old 05-19-2020, 12:24 PM
 
Location: Fort Bend County
2,599 posts, read 5,273,530 times
Reputation: 2227
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike from back east View Post
I chose 'expansion' as I think the virus will be largely overcome by then and we'll be moving back towards normal with a growing economy.
Amen!!! I am praying for this!!! We are in the digital age & era & I feel the economy will be largely improved by then.
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Old 05-19-2020, 12:42 PM
 
Location: Orange County, CA
2,700 posts, read 2,191,864 times
Reputation: 1451
Quote:
Originally Posted by SkyDog77 View Post
There also wasn’t a powerful central bank to help ease the pain that time around. I know there are those in this thread who think that’s a bad thing, but the reason we aren’t already in a depression is because The Fed has been acting.
The FED is propping up a fiscal/monetary system that's ultimately not sustainable.

How does it make sense for housing/rent to keep increasing to astronomical levels?#!

Sometimes, there needs to be some deflation in the system as much as the Powers That Be hate it so much...
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Old 05-19-2020, 01:11 PM
 
Location: Washington Park, Denver
8,082 posts, read 7,509,836 times
Reputation: 9105
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lycanmaster View Post
The FED is propping up a fiscal/monetary system that's ultimately not sustainable.

How does it make sense for housing/rent to keep increasing to astronomical levels?#!

Sometimes, there needs to be some deflation in the system as much as the Powers That Be hate it so much...
That’s a qualitative argument. It’s not true because you think it’s true. If there is inflation in the entire system, prices absolutely can go up and it makes perfect sense.

Just remember that inflation and deflation impact everything. Your salary included. If prices drop, so do your wages. You guys cheering for deflation seem to forget that part. Buying power stays constant.

PS. Fiscal and monetary aren’t interchangeable words. It’s unclear to me if you think they are, but it’s important that you understand the difference.
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Old 05-19-2020, 01:14 PM
 
Location: Heart of flyover America
644 posts, read 255,042 times
Reputation: 1222
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lycanmaster View Post
The FED is propping up a fiscal/monetary system that's ultimately not sustainable.

How does it make sense for housing/rent to keep increasing to astronomical levels?#!

Sometimes, there needs to be some deflation in the system as much as the Powers That Be hate it so much...
Deflation would totally destroy the system, which is why they'll never allow it.

Ultimately though the economic forces really want there to be a deflation. So it will happen and nothing the central banks will do will be able to stop it.

This is what will happen: hyperinflation in nominal terms, hyper-deflation in real terms.
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Old 05-19-2020, 02:19 PM
 
2,600 posts, read 990,345 times
Reputation: 6538
Has to be inflation, the bacon I buy went from $3.58 to $4.98 in one week. My never-wrong bacon index shows inflation running at an annual rate of 284,000% ! Forget bonds and equities, it’s time to invest in freezers and bacon.
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