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View Poll Results: Economic conditions in the United States in January 2022.
Expansion 56 54.37%
recession 24 23.30%
depression 23 22.33%
Voters: 103. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 05-19-2020, 04:40 PM
 
962 posts, read 322,550 times
Reputation: 3294

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Quote:
Originally Posted by TimAZ View Post
Has to be inflation, the bacon I buy went from $3.58 to $4.98 in one week. My never-wrong bacon index shows inflation running at an annual rate of 284,000% ! Forget bonds and equities, it’s time to invest in freezers and bacon.
When you go to a restaurant, pay for your meal when you arrive.

The price will likely be higher by the time you leave.
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Old 05-19-2020, 04:50 PM
 
2,605 posts, read 993,343 times
Reputation: 6563
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frank Purlin View Post
When you go to a restaurant, pay for your meal when you arrive.

The price will likely be higher by the time you leave.
My German grandfather fought for the Kaiser in WWI and started a woodworking business after the war. He and my grandmother and their five kids became disillusioned with Germany and planned to emigrate to Brazil. He sold his business and was paid literally with a suitcase of paper Deutschmarks. During the 90 days between the sale of the business and the sailing date of their ship to Brazil, the money lost so much value from inflation, they had to abandon their plans.
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Old 05-19-2020, 09:24 PM
 
Location: Heart of flyover America
644 posts, read 256,699 times
Reputation: 1222
Quote:
Originally Posted by TimAZ View Post
My German grandfather fought for the Kaiser in WWI and started a woodworking business after the war. He and my grandmother and their five kids became disillusioned with Germany and planned to emigrate to Brazil. He sold his business and was paid literally with a suitcase of paper Deutschmarks. During the 90 days between the sale of the business and the sailing date of their ship to Brazil, the money lost so much value from inflation, they had to abandon their plans.
B-bb-but....

"It can't happen here!"
Or
"This time it's different!"

If we keep up our current monetary policies and debt accumulation without destroying our currency, it will be unprecedented. Our current policies have ruined every nation that has ever tried them.
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Old 05-20-2020, 02:58 AM
 
Location: Mount Airy, Maryland
12,070 posts, read 6,829,802 times
Reputation: 19330
Quote:
Originally Posted by Katie the heartbreaker View Post
I tried to edit my post, but could not as it is too late. I wanted to add that I put the date out far enough to filter out the immediate effects of COVID-19. If our economy was strong as some contend prior to the virus, we will recover from this quite quickly. By January 2022, we should be back to where we were in 2019. On the flip side, if the economy was weak and ready to crash regardless, we will be in either a recession or depression. I am also going to add that this poll includes any and all black swans. If an asteroid hits the United States, the people voting depression still were correct, not that it would matter.
Prosperity never lasts. We were long overdue for a pullback if not a recession before COVID.
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Old 05-20-2020, 06:26 AM
 
Location: Guadalajara, MX
7,501 posts, read 3,648,559 times
Reputation: 14295
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveinMtAiry View Post
Prosperity never lasts. We were long overdue for a pullback if not a recession before COVID.
"Prosperity" is a pretty nebulous and constantly evolving term to throw around like this. One could look at a graph of median human lifespan over time and declare prosperity has indeed lasted. It depends on how you're trying to quantify it and how far past the basics of a full belly, clothes, and a roof over the head.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Taggerung View Post
Our current policies have ruined every nation that has ever tried them.
This isn't true, since there are many modern nations that employ (in a general sense) similar central bank and debt policies that haven't been ruined. It's clear evidence contrary to what you're saying. The way to verify the veracity of your claim would be to employ some sort of time frame on the expected ruination, otherwise one could claim anything eventually ruins every nation that tried it without a way to prove it true or false. Women showing their bare shoulders in public has eventually ruined every nation, prove me wrong.

Nations experience recessions, recoveries, they are born and they die based on a multitude of factors over the centuries but I believe it would be very difficult to prove that every nation that has carried debt or whatever economic factors you're harping on was the only reason for their decline and eventual failure.
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Old 05-20-2020, 06:43 AM
 
2,605 posts, read 993,343 times
Reputation: 6563
Quote:
Originally Posted by Taggerung View Post
B-bb-but....

"It can't happen here!"
Or
"This time it's different!"

If we keep up our current monetary policies and debt accumulation without destroying our currency, it will be unprecedented. Our current policies have ruined every nation that has ever tried them.
There are many today who have never experienced life in an inflationary economy. They cannot grasp how it distorts decision making and pervades even the mundane aspects of daily life.
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Old 05-20-2020, 07:12 AM
 
Location: Washington Park, Denver
8,082 posts, read 7,513,059 times
Reputation: 9105
Quote:
Originally Posted by Taggerung View Post
B-bb-but....

"It can't happen here!"
Or
"This time it's different!"

If we keep up our current monetary policies and debt accumulation without destroying our currency, it will be unprecedented. Our current policies have ruined every nation that has ever tried them.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveinMtAiry View Post
Prosperity never lasts. We were long overdue for a pullback if not a recession before COVID.
These are not quantitative statements. You guys just feel that something should happen. It’s a belief not backed up by any data or any thoughtful economic theory.

Last edited by SkyDog77; 05-20-2020 at 08:00 AM..
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Old 05-20-2020, 07:29 AM
 
Location: Washington Park, Denver
8,082 posts, read 7,513,059 times
Reputation: 9105
Quote:
Originally Posted by Taggerung View Post
Deflation would totally destroy the system, which is why they'll never allow it.

Ultimately though the economic forces really want there to be a deflation. So it will happen and nothing the central banks will do will be able to stop it.

This is what will happen: hyperinflation in nominal terms, hyper-deflation in real terms.
If there is massive inflation beyond what we want, The Fed’s tool is to raise nominal rates. They have done that before and it works. The US is part of the global economy. IF we raise rates relative to what the rest of the globe is paying, it creates capital inflows to the US. This doom and gloom scenario is not backed by anything more than your fantasy.
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Old 05-20-2020, 08:07 AM
 
2,605 posts, read 993,343 times
Reputation: 6563
Quote:
Originally Posted by SkyDog77 View Post
These are not quantitative statements. You guys just feel that something should happen. It’s a believe not backed up by any data or any thoughtful economic theory.
And what is your “quantitative” argument? Because a tree can grow to 50 feet, it can therefore grow to 400 feet?

We’ve had thirty years of debt-fueled “growth” and as a nation all we can say is that some folks have done well in the “markets”. Real (i.e. inflation adjusted) median household incomes tell a different story, they’ve been hovering around $60K since the mid-1990s.
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Old 05-20-2020, 08:25 AM
 
3,567 posts, read 2,257,353 times
Reputation: 8044
Quote:
Originally Posted by Taggerung View Post
B-bb-but....

"It can't happen here!"
Or
"This time it's different!"

If we keep up our current monetary policies and debt accumulation without destroying our currency, it will be unprecedented. Our current policies have ruined every nation that has ever tried them.
Does the u.s have a signed treaty of Versailles with 440 provisions, 419 of which are designed to punish it?

U.s debts are in usd. Germany’s debts were not in DMs
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