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View Poll Results: Economic conditions in the United States in January 2022.
Expansion 56 54.37%
recession 24 23.30%
depression 23 22.33%
Voters: 103. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 05-21-2020, 02:48 PM
 
Location: Washington Park, Denver
8,082 posts, read 7,505,926 times
Reputation: 9105

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Taggerung View Post
https://www.usdebtclock.org/

Add up the total debt and the unfunded liabilities. It's about $225 T.
Again, I think I see your problem. You’re being dramatic to try to make a point. Debt to GDP is what matters. Unfunded liabilities are not the same as debt and don’t have the same impact on the economy.

Debt is a real promise to repay. Unfunded liabilities are projected future promises. One is real and one isn’t.
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Old 05-21-2020, 02:53 PM
 
Location: Washington Park, Denver
8,082 posts, read 7,505,926 times
Reputation: 9105
Quote:
Originally Posted by Taggerung View Post
Alright we'll make a deal.

If on May 21 2023, we've resumed the 2019 euphoric drunken debt orgy, I'll take a picture of myself in a pink tutu and post it here on this forum. If I'm right and we're in severe economic crisis, you have to do the same (assuming the internet's still up and running).
No gray area, huh?

I think there is going to need to be some austerity. The current growth trajectory of our debt is not sustainable. Tax increases will likely need to happen at some point.

So, I do not think we will be right back to 2019, because hopefully we have leadership that sees the need for some fiscal restraint. I also don’t see us in a severe economic crisis. We may have a couple years of recession though.

You’re projecting the complete collapse of our system, right? If that’s your position, I’ll take that bet.
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Old 05-21-2020, 02:57 PM
 
Location: On a Long Island in NY
7,794 posts, read 8,889,834 times
Reputation: 7290
Quote:
Originally Posted by redguard57 View Post
The markets may recover, but this is going to be a "jobless" recovery. I suspect that there will be more and more calls for a UBI and a New Deal- government-funded jobs program, because the private sector is going to divest in jobs. The service sector was backstopping the gross inequality that existed in the economy in the BeforeTimes. To the extent you could get a job easily, restaurants were where it was at. Now the service sector is basically destroyed.
This is what I keep saying. Sure, jobs were plentiful before March but a huge chunk of them were either minimum wage jobs in restaurants, big box stores, or gig economy/independent contractor positions with no benefits. People don't understand this, they just look at the stock market and think the economy is booming. I recall reading somewhere that over half of jobs created since 2010 were gig jobs.

I opposed UBI before this, but the past 2 months have radically altered my perspective. And before anyone calls me a socialist, I think UBI is the best way to STOP socialism.
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Old 05-21-2020, 03:08 PM
 
Location: Guadalajara, MX
7,492 posts, read 3,644,311 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WIHS2006 View Post
Sure, jobs were plentiful before March but a huge chunk of them were either minimum wage jobs in restaurants, big box stores, or gig economy/independent contractor positions with no benefits.
A "huge chunk" were minimum wage jobs? Try 2.1%, as of 2018. That falls to 1% for workers older than 25.

https://www.bls.gov/opub/reports/min...8/pdf/home.pdf

I'm not sure anyone knows how many gig positions there are (estimates are all over the board), how many it is their primary job, or even what the definition of a gig job is. However can we say for sure a gig job is a bad job? Estimates for net income working for Uber full time also vary, but are often pegged at about 30k. Not rolling in money but also a hell of a lot more than a minimum wage job.
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Old 05-21-2020, 03:23 PM
 
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
1,175 posts, read 725,962 times
Reputation: 2953
Quote:
Originally Posted by SkyDog77 View Post
No gray area, huh?

I think there is going to need to be some austerity. The current growth trajectory of our debt is not sustainable. Tax increases will likely need to happen at some point.

So, I do not think we will be right back to 2019, because hopefully we have leadership that sees the need for some fiscal restraint. I also don’t see us in a severe economic crisis. We may have a couple years of recession though.

You’re projecting the complete collapse of our system, right? If that’s your position, I’ll take that bet.

Just so you understand, most, if not all, of us doomers are conspiracy theorists. That includes me. The majority of people who voted in the poll think the economy will return to 2019 prosperity. Looking at this logically, they will be right. There will be a higher unemployment rate than 2019, but otherwise it will look normal again. This is the reason I put black swans are included in the poll. I am not going to go into my conspiracy theories as they are not allowed here, so all I will say it is my theories that give me the conclusion that we will be in a depression in 2022.


I needed to edit my post to say that the majority of posters believe that we will be an expansion in 2022, not necessarily that we will have recovered to 2019 prosperity by that time.

Last edited by Katie the heartbreaker; 05-21-2020 at 04:48 PM.. Reason: correction
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Old 05-21-2020, 03:54 PM
 
Location: Washington Park, Denver
8,082 posts, read 7,505,926 times
Reputation: 9105
Quote:
Originally Posted by Katie the heartbreaker View Post
Just so you understand, most, if not all, of us doomers are conspiracy theorists. That includes me. The majority of people who voted in the poll think the economy will return to 2019 prosperity. Looking at this logically, they will be right. There will be a higher unemployment rate than 2019, but otherwise it will look normal again. This is the reason I put black swans are included in the poll. I am not going to go into my conspiracy theories as they are not allowed here, so all I will say it is my theories that give me the conclusion that we will be in a depression in 2022.
Oh, I’m well aware. It’s why I’m fairly certain you’re all nuts. You don’t let facts drive your conclusions, and instead rely on fabricated fantasies.

Have you done any reading on why people believe conspiracy theories? There is a ton of research out there.

https://www.google.com/search?q=why%...=firefox-b-1-m
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Old 05-21-2020, 04:21 PM
 
Location: Heart of flyover America
643 posts, read 255,042 times
Reputation: 1222
Quote:
Originally Posted by SkyDog77 View Post
Again, I think I see your problem. You’re being dramatic to try to make a point. Debt to GDP is what matters. Unfunded liabilities are not the same as debt and don’t have the same impact on the economy.

Debt is a real promise to repay. Unfunded liabilities are projected future promises. One is real and one isn’t.
To say the unfunded liabilities aren't real is erroneous. Unfunded liabilities are debts that will come due at some point in the future that the gov hasn't figured out how to pay for yet- Social Security, veterans benefits, or guaranteed bank deposits, or mortgages, or student loans, etc. They're every bit as real as the sovereign debt, which is really only the tip of the debt iceberg.
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Old 05-21-2020, 04:23 PM
 
Location: Heart of flyover America
643 posts, read 255,042 times
Reputation: 1222
Quote:
Originally Posted by SkyDog77 View Post
No gray area, huh?

I think there is going to need to be some austerity. The current growth trajectory of our debt is not sustainable. Tax increases will likely need to happen at some point.

So, I do not think we will be right back to 2019, because hopefully we have leadership that sees the need for some fiscal restraint. I also don’t see us in a severe economic crisis. We may have a couple years of recession though.

You’re projecting the complete collapse of our system, right? If that’s your position, I’ll take that bet.
If we're in crisis or collapse, I win the bet.

If we're in 'expansion,' even if it's not at 2019 levels, you win the bet.
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Old 05-21-2020, 04:26 PM
 
Location: Heart of flyover America
643 posts, read 255,042 times
Reputation: 1222
Quote:
Originally Posted by SkyDog77 View Post
Oh, I’m well aware. It’s why I’m fairly certain you’re all nuts. You don’t let facts drive your conclusions, and instead rely on fabricated fantasies.

Have you done any reading on why people believe conspiracy theories? There is a ton of research out there.

https://www.google.com/search?q=why%...=firefox-b-1-m
One doesn't need to be a "doomer" or believe in any "conspiracy theories" to understand that infinite "growth" and infinite debt expansion are impossible in a finite realm. All that takes is basic logic and common sense.
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Old 05-21-2020, 04:37 PM
 
12,605 posts, read 17,656,900 times
Reputation: 14331
Quote:
Originally Posted by Taggerung View Post
One doesn't need to be a "doomer" or believe in any "conspiracy theories" to understand that infinite "growth" and infinite debt expansion are impossible in a finite realm. All that takes is basic logic and common sense.



What was determined by Adam Smith and finally concluded by one Karl Marx. Mr Marx showed that, in a closed system (Earth) capital is destined to run out of expansion and dissolve itself out as working system.

What was further developed by one Rosa Luxembourg, in her political economy.
To what capitalist then economists developed "economics", in which mentioning of finality of capitalism, as system, is non existent.

What resulted in a cohort of economists that simply can not see what is going on as, as their base line of thinking, they are foreign to such idea. Out of roughly 25 Nobel winners in economics, since 2008, when current crisis started, not a single one ever wrote a word on that crisis.

There is great precedent in history and psychology. human eye sees only what it is used to. The word is, when Spaniards dropped their anchors at America shores, their ships were not "seen" by natives. As, in their mindset, nothing like that ever existed and, as such, was simply not noticed.
Same goes with economics economists. They simply do not see, what does not exist in their training/mindset.
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