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View Poll Results: Economic conditions in the United States in January 2022.
Expansion 56 54.37%
recession 24 23.30%
depression 23 22.33%
Voters: 103. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 05-21-2020, 05:31 PM
 
3,550 posts, read 2,252,435 times
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That doesn’t even make sense to me at all to say that about economists and the natives allegedly not seeing the Spanish fleet.

When you understand the world a certain way or as a professional you are immediately attracted to something that defies your expectation. The draw to understand why something is different or not what you would expect would get 100% attention. Educated people don’t bury their head in the sand. They ask why.
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Old 05-21-2020, 05:34 PM
 
3,550 posts, read 2,252,435 times
Reputation: 8021
Quote:
Originally Posted by Taggerung View Post
https://www.usdebtclock.org/

Add up the total debt and the unfunded liabilities. It's about $225 T.
Yawn.

What’s the U.S asset clock at? Does your doomer site track that? Since you’re just throwing on projected liability, can I get a projected asset appreciation too?

Saying a debt number is meaningless without understanding the payment terms. It’s meaningless without understanding assets. $35 billion in debt sounds like a lot but that’s how much Pepsi has...and it’s kind of a meh shrug when you understand their assets and market value and future earning potential.

It’s not like those debts are all due on a current (under 1 year) basis. So that 20 trillion gdp (which will eventually turn to growth) is stacking up year after year. You can sit there and panic over 225 trillion (I think that’s bull****), and compare it to a 20 trillion gdp...but it would be many many years of gdp applied to the debt...since it’s not like that debt is due in just one year.

It’s no different than my mortgage is greater than my income...but I get 30 years of income to apply to that mortgage. My student loan debt is x...but I get to apply 10 years of income to it.

Last edited by Thatsright19; 05-21-2020 at 05:56 PM..
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Old 05-21-2020, 06:23 PM
 
Location: Heart of flyover America
644 posts, read 255,042 times
Reputation: 1222
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thatsright19 View Post
Yawn.

What’s the U.S asset clock at? Does your doomer site track that? Since you’re just throwing on projected liability, can I get a projected asset appreciation too?

Saying a debt number is meaningless without understanding the payment terms. It’s meaningless without understanding assets. $35 billion in debt sounds like a lot but that’s how much Pepsi has...and it’s kind of a meh shrug when you understand their assets and market value and future earning potential.

It’s not like those debts are all due on a current (under 1 year) basis. So that 20 trillion gdp (which will eventually turn to growth) is stacking up year after year. You can sit there and panic over 225 trillion (I think that’s bull****), and compare it to a 20 trillion gdp...but it would be many many years of gdp applied to the debt...since it’s not like that debt is due in just one year.

It’s no different than my mortgage is greater than my income...but I get 30 years of income to apply to that mortgage. My student loan debt is x...but I get to apply 10 years of income to it.
According to that same US debt clock, US total assets are $144T. Vs $225T of debts and liabilities. What's it called again when your debts/liabilities are greater than your assets?
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Old 05-21-2020, 06:30 PM
 
Location: Guadalajara, MX
7,492 posts, read 3,644,311 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Taggerung View Post
If we're in crisis or collapse, I win the bet.

If we're in 'expansion,' even if it's not at 2019 levels, you win the bet.
You've already done the doomer-never-wrong move, how exactly are you defining "crisis" in this context?

I'm sure you're well aware (or at least everyone else is) that a dedicated doomer always sees things as constantly in crisis. The crisis is that we're about to have a crisis. Every major macroeconomic measure could be doing well and you'd dig up Baltic Dry Index or whatever is the latest trend in obscure doomer measures and declare yourself correct since it indicates crisis. You could be the next Peter Schiff with this vague pajas.

Set some parameters on crisis. Consumer spending tumbling? Unemployment skyrocketing? Something with less gray area than Taggerung thinks there is a crisis.
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Old 05-21-2020, 06:47 PM
 
Location: Heart of flyover America
644 posts, read 255,042 times
Reputation: 1222
Quote:
Originally Posted by lieqiang View Post
You've already done the doomer-never-wrong move, how exactly are you defining "crisis" in this context?

I'm sure you're well aware (or at least everyone else is) that a dedicated doomer always sees things as constantly in crisis. The crisis is that we're about to have a crisis. Every major macroeconomic measure could be doing well and you'd dig up Baltic Dry Index or whatever is the latest trend in obscure doomer measures and declare yourself correct since it indicates crisis. You could be the next Peter Schiff with this vague pajas.

Set some parameters on crisis. Consumer spending tumbling? Unemployment skyrocketing? Something with less gray area than Taggerung thinks there is a crisis.
US GDP divided by the spot price of an OZ of gold.

It is currently 12.2 billion.

If that number is higher 3 years from now, he wins. If not, I win.
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Old 05-21-2020, 07:32 PM
 
Location: Guadalajara, MX
7,492 posts, read 3,644,311 times
Reputation: 14295
Quote:
Originally Posted by Taggerung View Post
US GDP divided by the spot price of an OZ of gold.

It is currently 12.2 billion.

If that number is higher 3 years from now, he wins. If not, I win.
So now you're going to measure whether the US economy is in crisis based on the single day price of a single precious metal?

In Sep 2012 gold was $1,970/oz.
In Jun 2013 gold was $1,310/oz.

Do you really believe there as that big a difference in the state of the US economy in that time frame to where you can look to the price of gold as a metric? I mean it's great you want to commit to a measure but come on man, monkey throwing darts at a wall here.

Either way you're still hiding from your US economy collapse gig and have tried to retreat to the warmth of some attempt of seeing whether the US economy is better than it was in 2019, which isn't what anyone was saying. They were doubting the crisis/collapse type theories, which trying to compare to 2019 doesn't validate since there are many years worse that still were a healthy economy. It's like saying Usain Bolt beat Justin Gatlin the 2012 Olympics therefore Gatlin is slow.

How about inflation adjusted consumer spending, weekly wages, consumer confidence, or employment being more than 20% worse than 2019? Surely your crisis/collapse scenarios would laugh at a mere 20%?
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Old 05-21-2020, 07:40 PM
 
Location: Heart of flyover America
644 posts, read 255,042 times
Reputation: 1222
Quote:
Originally Posted by lieqiang View Post
So now you're going to measure whether the US economy is in crisis based on the single day price of a single precious metal?

In Sep 2012 gold was $1,970/oz.
In Jun 2013 gold was $1,310/oz.

Do you really believe there as that big a difference in the state of the US economy in that time frame to where you can look to the price of gold as a metric? I mean it's great you want to commit to a measure but come on man, monkey throwing darts at a wall here.

way you're still hiding from your US economy collapse gig and have tried to retreat to the warmth of some attempt of seeing whether the US economy is better than it was in 2019, which isn't what anyone was saying. They were doubting the crisis/collapse type theories, which trying to compare to 2019 doesn't validate since there are many years worse that still were a healthy economy. It's like saying Usain Bolt beat Justin Gatlin the 2012 Olympics therefore Gatlin is slow.
Well, the GDP 3 years from now could be twice as high, but the USD could be four times as worthless, so really there's been no growth and in fact there's been a sharp decline. That's why I'd rather use a relatively stable measure like gold.
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Old 05-21-2020, 08:28 PM
 
Location: Guadalajara, MX
7,492 posts, read 3,644,311 times
Reputation: 14295
Quote:
Originally Posted by Taggerung View Post
That's why I'd rather use a relatively stable measure like gold.
Do you know what the word "stable" means? Related question from last time = do you believe gold dropping 34% in less than a year was something stable and a useful metric of the economy?
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Old 05-21-2020, 08:34 PM
 
Location: Washington Park, Denver
8,082 posts, read 7,505,926 times
Reputation: 9105
Quote:
Originally Posted by Taggerung View Post
Well, the GDP 3 years from now could be twice as high, but the USD could be four times as worthless, so really there's been no growth and in fact there's been a sharp decline. That's why I'd rather use a relatively stable measure like gold.
I know! Let’s take nominal GDP and divide it by the deflator. I just came up with this, but I think I’ll call it “Real GDP.” What do you think?

You’ve predicting doom all thread, now you’re simply saying lower than 2019. No deal. It’s a very real possibility that we could be in a recession for the next two years.
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Old 05-21-2020, 08:35 PM
 
Location: Washington Park, Denver
8,082 posts, read 7,505,926 times
Reputation: 9105
Quote:
Originally Posted by lieqiang View Post
Do you know what the word "stable" means? Related question from last time = do you believe gold dropping 34% in less than a year was something stable and a useful metric of the economy?
Hahaha!! Truth.
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