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Old 05-22-2020, 03:22 PM
 
4,927 posts, read 3,603,679 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RationalExpectations View Post
This is a very troubling economic trend:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-bir...ow-11589947260




The economic consequence 21 years from now in 2041 will be severe. Every credible econometric model of the US economy shows population growth as a principle driver of future economic growth.

In many senses, this decline is associated with the incredibly strong economy we've enjoyed over the past several years - economic opportunity for women has resulted in their personal decisions to work and defer/decline to procreated.

More and more, it is clear the USA needs a policy of encouraging immigration of fertile women who are of childbearing age.
If this is only happening in the USA, then you'd be right that this is bad news but if all countries are going through the same thing then it is no big deal. It is all relative.
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Old 05-22-2020, 04:26 PM
 
Location: Oregon, formerly Texas
6,808 posts, read 4,508,290 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Therblig View Post
Well, there are short term issues and long term ones. Most of what you've noted is immediate stuff. I can't agree more that young adults should be turned out with far, far more personal financial understanding, along with that nebulous and ill-taught "critical thinking." Teaching to the tests, teaching for job entry, teaching for college entry... all badly undercut if the mopes are so stupid they're screwed up for life financially by 25. It's an issue separate from all others; practical economic education is something we do badly at and should fix starting right-the-eff-now.

But good luck on that; the overall system wants pliable, gullible consumers even more than it wants pliable, gullible voters.

This is getting away from the thread topic, though.
Was there ever a time when a particular generation had all their s**t together?

Thinking about my own family -

my dad was hit by the S&L crisis. In hindsight never should have put his money in those things, but he had his reasons.

Both he and my mom failed to plan for retirement adequately. It wasn't that they wasted their money or lives, but it was as if retirement just kind of crept on them and they didn't realize they were old until it was too late. I remember with my mom it was as if one day she was this uber-competent professional woman and seemingly overnight she was an overwhelmed old lady who couldn't handle the pressure of her job anymore & was forced into retirement. Even though I think that process actually occurred over about 3 years, it felt overnight to me. I feel like I'm succumbing to the same thing. There's always tomorrow until there's not.

My grandparents were in their teens and 20s during the great depression. That slammed all of them & none came out better off for it. During the 50s prosperity they all did relatively well, some more than others, but a lot of them were hit by the inflation of the 70s. They distrusted the markets and banks with a passion so their savings shrunk fast.

My great-grandparents were victims of the various economic panics that used to occur in those days. My great aunt loved to tell this story about how her uncle (my great-great uncle) had this lakehouse & arrogantly bragged about it to the whole family but then lost it all. I surmised he lost money in either the panic of 1907 or 1911.
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Old 05-22-2020, 05:07 PM
 
2,727 posts, read 768,948 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by redguard57 View Post
Was there ever a time when a particular generation had all their s**t together?
It's my contention that the problem has been made much worse by population increase, the overwhelming pervasiveness of consumerism and a decline in relevant education.

Sure, there have always been spendthrifts and losers who couldn't stack up two nickels to save their life. And people who made mistakes on unprotected investments, or failure to have fire insurance, or whatever.

But at the risk of sounding totally TFH — and I could write in long detail about my reasoning and evidence if it were the topic — I believe today's consumer economy is a giant shakedown machine built on fostered ignorance, fostered misinformaton and fostered desire. Now generationally so.

Back to point, it will have to go if we're to survive. It's the other half of the survival equation that starts with a global reduction in population.
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Old 05-22-2020, 05:15 PM
 
1,593 posts, read 762,134 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Therblig View Post
Oh, please. You make me want to chant "I'm rubber, you're glue," here.

You misread my first post. You misread my second post. Your prejudices assigned narrow political nonsense to what I wrote. And when I said so and that you need to Read For Context better, you descend to this.

Let's complete your descent... *click*.
All you need is the hoax banter and to cry fake news and you have Trump’s repertoire exactly.

I assume the *click* is your clever way of saying you’ve put me on ignore, but since you’ve shown that you rarely mean what you say or say what you mean, until much later when you decide what’s best for you, that’s just a guess.
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Old 05-22-2020, 05:21 PM
 
Location: southern california
59,619 posts, read 78,322,313 times
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Don’t be like France mr expert
The great folly of France -a country I know a bit about -
The assumption was if you get some women that want to have kids and fill your country up with them -their kids will all be excellent citizens and all have strong work ethic - it does not matter where they came from -or their culture -they will quickly adopt your values and your culture -because after all -this is France
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Old 05-22-2020, 05:24 PM
 
2,727 posts, read 768,948 times
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Originally Posted by Huckleberry3911948 View Post
The great folly of France a country I know a bit about
The assumption was if you get some some that want to have kids and fill your country up with them their kids will all be excellent citizens and all have strong work ethic - it does not matter where they came from or their culture they will quickly adopt your values and your culture because after all this is France
I'm having trouble matching this with what I know of France. They have an immense native-born but non-citizen population because in the end they are as xenophobic as Japan but needed the laborers like the US yet don't have a policy of native birth.
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Old 05-22-2020, 05:26 PM
 
Location: southern california
59,619 posts, read 78,322,313 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Therblig View Post
I'm having trouble matching this with what I know of France. They have an immense native-born but non-citizen population because in the end they are as xenophobic as Japan but needed the laborers like the US yet don't have a policy of native birth.
Culture determines behavior And values not city of birth Yes They wanted laborers but did not get them instead they off shored and became business hostile and we are following their model closely
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Old 05-22-2020, 05:33 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Huckleberry3911948 View Post
Culture determines behavior And values not city of birth Yes They wanted laborers but did not get them instead they off shored and became business hostile and we are following their model closely
Offshoring is not necessarily a bad practice, especially in a smaller country that can't necessarily sustain every needed industry. Offshoring and a global economy mean that each nation can focus on its strengths and pass off its weaknesses to a country that can do better.

Most anti-globalism and "bring back the jobs" thinking is the macroeconomic equivalent of "back to the land" — wishful thinking about a golden time that really never existed but is longed for/agitated for anyway.
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Old 05-22-2020, 05:40 PM
 
Location: Oregon, formerly Texas
6,808 posts, read 4,508,290 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Therblig View Post
Offshoring is not necessarily a bad practice, especially in a smaller country that can't necessarily sustain every needed industry. Offshoring and a global economy mean that each nation can focus on its strengths and pass off its weaknesses to a country that can do better.

Most anti-globalism and "bring back the jobs" thinking is the macroeconomic equivalent of "back to the land" — wishful thinking about a golden time that really never existed but is longed for/agitated for anyway.
Yesss. Reading about the history of the upper midwest rust belt... a lot of those towns - Youngstown the most famous - willfully sold their souls to get those factories. Those towns had diverse but slow-growing economies. They thought getting a big factory would help them. Well it did for a a number of decades, until it didn't. The companies never said it was a forever-promise. Now the people long for the good ol' days that were never that good, and were never promised to last forever.
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Old 05-22-2020, 05:48 PM
 
2,727 posts, read 768,948 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by redguard57 View Post
Yesss. Reading about the history of the upper midwest rust belt... a lot of those towns - Youngstown the most famous - willfully sold their souls to get those factories. Those towns had diverse but slow-growing economies. They thought getting a big factory would help them. Well it did for a a number of decades, until it didn't. The companies never said it was a forever-promise. Now the people long for the good ol' days that were never that good, and were never promised to last forever.
That takes it a little bit different direction, but it's certainly true that many cities — like the small towns we've been discussing lately — put all their eggs in one giant industry basket, and took it in the 'nads when the industry moved on.

But... those industries moved on in two ways. One was foreign sourcing/offshoring; if Japan could make better steel, cheaper, there's no good argument for keeping Youngstown and Allentown and Bethlehem in business.

The other is more to point here, I think: an awful lot of those jobs didn't go anywhere, exactly; they were just rendered surplus by first mechanization, then efficiency practices, then automation. Mills and mines can now be run by a relative handful of people, not thousands and thousands of laborers. Those jobs are not coming back because they never went anywhere. Screaming at China and promising to build new plants and so forth is the most empty possible rhetoric, shouted by those who don't really understand what happened and how it is not really reversible.

Which is why I maintain that the next tier of this process, into white collar areas and accelerated by the virus, is something that is going to rip the lid off of our staggering, outdated notion of how our economy works. We've steadily lost "good" jobs since the steel, auto and coal industries imploded in the 1970s. Only auto has sorta-kinda come back... but count the workforce.
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