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Old 05-26-2020, 09:09 AM
 
1,269 posts, read 761,756 times
Reputation: 2061

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Quote:
Originally Posted by beachmouse View Post
Some companies have been experimenting with that kind of 'job sharing' since the 90s bu it's never really seemed to take hold in the USA.



A lot of the McJobs now require greater schedule flexibility than someone going to school 8-3 M-F can offer and have ended up the realm of the working poor who have to take hours wherever they can get them.
Yes, this is a troubling development. What used to be temporary teen jobs have now become permanent jobs for the working poor.
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Old 05-26-2020, 09:32 AM
 
5,956 posts, read 1,755,840 times
Reputation: 10430
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2sleepy View Post
I've brought this up in at least a dozen times against proponents of stopping virtually all immigration in the US. I'm kind of leery of your last sentence though, it sounds a little like Handmaids Tale
Yeah, I'm leery of it as well. I've never read The Handmaid's Tale nor watched the TV series - all I know of it comes from Wikipedia. None of us want such a dystopian future.

Another poster in this thread described how immigrants from Asia over the past few decades have mostly been males rather than balanced between the two genders. His observation is that China's one-child policy has led many parents to select boys rather than girls, which has led to an "oversupply" (probably not the right word) of men 18 years down the line -- and China in some sense is dealing with this by exporting their "male surplus" around the world, and the USA gets a big chunk.

Every credible econometric model of GDP & GNP growth shows that increasing the population leads to more growth. There are downsides to that, as many other people have pointed out.

It sounds like you and I agree that the idea of "stopping virtually all immigration to the US" is a really dumb idea.

Last edited by RationalExpectations; 05-26-2020 at 09:46 AM..
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Old 05-26-2020, 09:44 AM
 
5,956 posts, read 1,755,840 times
Reputation: 10430
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2sleepy View Post
Most parents start thinking about their kid graduating from college the day they are born.
I completely agree.

Our daughter was born on a Wednesday in the morning. Sometime that afternoon I left the hospital & went home to take care of a few things. Arriving in the US Mail that day was our issue of Consumer Reports. I tossed it along with other snail mail on the kitchen counter. The Consumer Reports magazine opened to where there those "subscription cards", and by random chance, THAT issue, on THAT page, had an article titled "Saving for College." There was a table at the bottom of the page that listed how much money we - as new parents - needed to save each month under several scenarios, including:

Private K-12 & private university
Private K-12 & public university
Public K-12 & private university
Public K-12 & public university

... and for each of the above, they had modifiers for law school, bus school, med school, a PhD... and also had modifiers for if stashing money into savings ended at 18 or 21 or whatever.

The numbers were big, of course.

Our daughter is now in her late 20s and currently has no plans to have children.
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Old 05-26-2020, 03:16 PM
 
Location: Oregon coast
18 posts, read 5,534 times
Reputation: 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by RationalExpectations View Post
This is a very troubling economic trend:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-bir...ow-11589947260




The economic consequence 21 years from now in 2041 will be severe. Every credible econometric model of the US economy shows population growth as a principle driver of future economic growth.

In many senses, this decline is associated with the incredibly strong economy we've enjoyed over the past several years - economic opportunity for women has resulted in their personal decisions to work and defer/decline to procreated.

More and more, it is clear the USA needs a policy of encouraging immigration of fertile women who are of childbearing age.

This is a very hilarious thread, thanks OP.

I read that you in your 60s, so I assume you worry about your social security. Well, nothing to worry about really – yes, funds will be depleted pretty soon (in ~10 years), but don't worry, there will be additional tax/cap removing to deal with it, it is a political suicide to decrease SS. And it is true for the future as well – SS in one way or another will exist no matter what.

There were some interesting ideas expressed, but the issue is much more complicated. There are countries with cheaper college, free healthcare (yes, taxes are higher), and with economic incentives to have kids, and with longer vacations (a lot of kids are conceived during holidays), but still, numbers are low and the trend is negative. These numbers are even lower than in the US.


Quote:
Originally Posted by RationalExpectations View Post
More and more, it is clear the USA needs a policy of encouraging immigration of fertile women who are of childbearing age.

This is the best suggestion EVER. First, what do you think will happen if you encourage immigration of "fertile women"? Do you think they will just start producing a baby every year? And how, if you get _only_ women? It is not like there are millions of men waiting to get a woman to have tons of children with. Statistics does not show that there are that many single men over women.

For SS to work, even if entire 15% of FICA taxes went to SS and assuming everybody will get twice lower than their salary during working years, you need more than 3 children per person. It means that every family needs 6 children. Of course it won't happen; 2 kids are not that common anymore!

This battle is over, and it is in the whole western world. Soon, after obvious SS/Medicare crisis, we'll have to rethink what to do about it; but for now, don't worry, everybody will kick the can down the road.
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Old 05-26-2020, 03:19 PM
 
Location: Oregon coast
18 posts, read 5,534 times
Reputation: 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by RationalExpectations View Post
I completely agree.

Our daughter was born on a Wednesday in the morning. Sometime that afternoon I left the hospital & went home to take care of a few things. Arriving in the US Mail that day was our issue of Consumer Reports. I tossed it along with other snail mail on the kitchen counter. The Consumer Reports magazine opened to where there those "subscription cards", and by random chance, THAT issue, on THAT page, had an article titled "Saving for College." There was a table at the bottom of the page that listed how much money we - as new parents - needed to save each month under several scenarios, including:

Private K-12 & private university
Private K-12 & public university
Public K-12 & private university
Public K-12 & public university

... and for each of the above, they had modifiers for law school, bus school, med school, a PhD... and also had modifiers for if stashing money into savings ended at 18 or 21 or whatever.

The numbers were big, of course.

Our daughter is now in her late 20s and currently has no plans to have children.

How many kids do you have and if less than 3, why? Is it an economic issue or something else? The answers will probably clear it that this trend is not going away.

What about your friends? How many kids on average do they have and why not more?
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Old 05-26-2020, 04:08 PM
 
Location: Living rent free in your head
35,138 posts, read 16,237,227 times
Reputation: 25702
Quote:
Originally Posted by RationalExpectations View Post
Yeah, I'm leery of it as well. I've never read The Handmaid's Tale nor watched the TV series - all I know of it comes from Wikipedia. None of us want such a dystopian future.

Another poster in this thread described how immigrants from Asia over the past few decades have mostly been males rather than balanced between the two genders. His observation is that China's one-child policy has led many parents to select boys rather than girls, which has led to an "oversupply" (probably not the right word) of men 18 years down the line -- and China in some sense is dealing with this by exporting their "male surplus" around the world, and the USA gets a big chunk.

Every credible econometric model of GDP & GNP growth shows that increasing the population leads to more growth. There are downsides to that, as many other people have pointed out.

It sounds like you and I agree that the idea of "stopping virtually all immigration to the US" is a really dumb idea.
Yes, I absolutely agree with you, unfortunately it's an issue that this administration turned into a cheesy campaign slogan so now even if they wanted to, they think it would show weakness to modify their position on it.
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Old 05-26-2020, 06:29 PM
 
Location: IN
21,424 posts, read 37,655,045 times
Reputation: 13986
Quote:
Originally Posted by flying_pan View Post
How many kids do you have and if less than 3, why? Is it an economic issue or something else? The answers will probably clear it that this trend is not going away.

What about your friends? How many kids on average do they have and why not more?
I know very few people that have kids and I have none myself. The ones I know who do live out in ultra conservative religious areas like Kansas or Missouri. For me it is partly economic (great recession disaster), partly a reality of moving more frequently, and the reality that I want to live somewhere near a lake in retirement. It all takes investments and hard work to be able to achieve these things. Unfortunately, more people have to make even more extreme sacrifices to be able to achieve particular goals of their choosing given the ever increasing costs of many items.
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Old 05-26-2020, 09:43 PM
 
Location: NYC
16,385 posts, read 10,583,780 times
Reputation: 19267
Quote:
Originally Posted by GraniteStater View Post
I know very few people that have kids and I have none myself. The ones I know who do live out in ultra conservative religious areas like Kansas or Missouri. For me it is partly economic (great recession disaster), partly a reality of moving more frequently, and the reality that I want to live somewhere near a lake in retirement. It all takes investments and hard work to be able to achieve these things. Unfortunately, more people have to make even more extreme sacrifices to be able to achieve particular goals of their choosing given the ever increasing costs of many items.
The only people that have multiple kids these days are immigrants and those who live near poverty levels. Almost every traditional muslim around here is pushing around 3+ kids. White millennial couples with 2 or more kids is a rare sighting.
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Old 05-28-2020, 05:47 PM
JL
 
7,705 posts, read 12,421,157 times
Reputation: 7448
Don't worry it isn't heading towards what Japan is facing.
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Old 05-29-2020, 07:24 PM
 
933 posts, read 889,006 times
Reputation: 1713
As long as 'uncontrolled breeding' is allowed to continue, we will continue to be witness to the end-result of the 'American Dream', currently being displayed in ALL it's glory, in cities all over the country.

Like Phil Collins sang several decades ago in the Genesis song 'Land of Confusion': "There's too many people, making TOO many problems, and NOT much Love to go around..."

LONG live the American-Dream ! !

https://youtu.be/ShTVpGuzk1M
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