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Old 05-20-2020, 08:26 AM
 
5,956 posts, read 1,749,730 times
Reputation: 10430

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This is a very troubling economic trend:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-bir...ow-11589947260


Quote:
American women had babies at record-low rates last year and pushed U.S. births down to their smallest total in 35 years. About 3.75 million babies were born in the U.S. in 2019, down 1% from the prior year, provisional figures from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Center for Health Statistics showed.

The general fertility rate fell 2% to 58.2 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44, its lowest level since the government began tracking the figure in 1909.
The economic consequence 21 years from now in 2041 will be severe. Every credible econometric model of the US economy shows population growth as a principle driver of future economic growth.

In many senses, this decline is associated with the incredibly strong economy we've enjoyed over the past several years - economic opportunity for women has resulted in their personal decisions to work and defer/decline to procreated.

More and more, it is clear the USA needs a policy of encouraging immigration of fertile women who are of childbearing age.
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Old 05-20-2020, 08:29 AM
 
1,963 posts, read 495,223 times
Reputation: 3155
Quite seriously, an administration with a more positive focus and all it would bring will turn the curve up.
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Old 05-20-2020, 08:35 AM
 
1,533 posts, read 725,926 times
Reputation: 2007
Quote:
Originally Posted by Therblig View Post
Quite seriously, an administration with a more positive focus and all it would bring will turn the curve up.
Please define this
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Old 05-20-2020, 08:39 AM
 
Location: Heart of flyover America
643 posts, read 253,951 times
Reputation: 1222
We don't need any more damn people in this country or the world. What we need is not more people or immigration, what we need is to abolish this deranged economic model of infinite GDP growth and infinite debt expansion
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Old 05-20-2020, 08:41 AM
 
666 posts, read 508,924 times
Reputation: 666
Why is this surprising though? Kids cost money. A lot of people born between 1981 and 1996 most likely have lots of student loan debt. Some might wait longer to have kids because of this. Some focus more on their careers and decide to have kids later in life. Maybe they realize it's not worth it and don't have any at all. Add to this to the high cost of living in the coastal cities and it's not a surprise why the fertility rate is declining.
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Old 05-20-2020, 08:55 AM
 
5,106 posts, read 3,401,898 times
Reputation: 10366
Quote:
Originally Posted by RationalExpectations View Post

More and more, it is clear the USA needs a policy of encouraging immigration of fertile women who are of childbearing age.
Why immigration? Why not just have policies that encourage more children in US families?
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Old 05-20-2020, 09:00 AM
 
2,340 posts, read 518,063 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KaraG View Post
Why immigration? Why not just have policies that encourage more children in US families?
No matter what, it will become welfare. It’s time to just admit that welfare is acceptable when it goes to the right people.
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Old 05-20-2020, 09:19 AM
 
Location: Portal to the Pacific
6,345 posts, read 5,869,081 times
Reputation: 8089
Quote:
Originally Posted by Taggerung View Post
We don't need any more damn people in this country or the world. What we need is not more people or immigration, what we need is to abolish this deranged economic model of infinite GDP growth and infinite debt expansion
Quote:
Originally Posted by Louisville Slugger View Post
Why is this surprising though? Kids cost money. A lot of people born between 1981 and 1996 most likely have lots of student loan debt. Some might wait longer to have kids because of this. Some focus more on their careers and decide to have kids later in life. Maybe they realize it's not worth it and don't have any at all. Add to this to the high cost of living in the coastal cities and it's not a surprise why the fertility rate is declining.
Agree with both.

Having two kids was hard and expensive and we did it without any support of family or friends. I've told my boys several times that I'm worried about climate change and economic crisis in their future and living with that fear is something awful and they can avoid it by not having kids themselves. I see it as the more people, the more potential for something catastrophic to happen. Covid-19 was a walk in the park compared to other events in history and we know that our lifestyle/economic system is not sustainable (infinite growth can't exist on a finite planet!). We keep kicking the can down to the next generation, but at some point there will have to come a reckoning.

Maybe "importing" the world's fertile, young women would help our economy, but it would be at the risk of upsetting/destabilizing other countries.

Birth rates are dropping around the world. Two generations in my husband's family in Mexico have been economically supported by owning a private school system and it's starting to fail because of falling birth rates in Mexico. My husband researched it to talk to the school's board of directors who are similarly concerned. Same explanations mentioned here were cited, but in addition the young people in Mexico are worried about physical violence and personal safety.

I think collectively we just know, perhaps subconsciously even, that the majority of us (or our kids), will live with a lower standard of living than what we have now or what our parents and grandparents had. That thought doesn't quite get the libido going, now does it?
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Old 05-20-2020, 09:20 AM
 
125 posts, read 12,310 times
Reputation: 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by RationalExpectations View Post
This is a very troubling economic trend:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-bir...ow-11589947260




The economic consequence 21 years from now in 2041 will be severe. Every credible econometric model of the US economy shows population growth as a principle driver of future economic growth.

In many senses, this decline is associated with the incredibly strong economy we've enjoyed over the past several years - economic opportunity for women has resulted in their personal decisions to work and defer/decline to procreated.

More and more, it is clear the USA needs a policy of encouraging immigration of fertile women who are of childbearing age.
It is worldwide event. Many nations are below replacement rate. Goal is decrease of world's population.
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Old 05-20-2020, 09:30 AM
 
101 posts, read 33,622 times
Reputation: 195
Quote:
Originally Posted by RationalExpectations View Post
USA needs a policy of encouraging immigration of fertile women who are of childbearing age.
You'd like that, wouldn't you?
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