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Old 06-02-2020, 08:18 PM
 
Location: ATL, GA
1,348 posts, read 781,043 times
Reputation: 1121

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Serious Conversation View Post
This is a thoughtful post and one I'd like to elaborate on further.

I think the idleness from the lockdowns and the unemployment is a HUGE and overlooked contributor to all this.

In my area, the arrestees are almost all under 25. Many were college students who either got stuck here due to COVID and the relative lack of layoffs, or they never went to college and are unemployed and idle.

I worked from 8-8 yesterday. I did a mile and a half walk afterwards. I was too tired to protest, even if I wanted to. Oh, and I had to be back in at 8 this morning.

It is not healthy for young, able people, especially young men, to sit idle. Combine that with the frustrations from lockdown and the outrage of Floyd's murder, and you had a tinderbox.
Very true. I'm have been working long hours through this. Right after work, I ride my rollers on rainy days and hit the road on sunny days (I'm a recreational cyclist). As much as I would LOVE to peaceful protest, I am just too tired to after work.
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Old 06-02-2020, 09:45 PM
 
588 posts, read 198,711 times
Reputation: 1014
Quote:
Originally Posted by Serious Conversation View Post
This is a thoughtful post and one I'd like to elaborate on further.

I think the idleness from the lockdowns and the unemployment is a HUGE and overlooked contributor to all this.

In my area, the arrestees are almost all under 25. Many were college students who either got stuck here due to COVID and the relative lack of layoffs, or they never went to college and are unemployed and idle.

I worked from 8-8 yesterday. I did a mile and a half walk afterwards. I was too tired to protest, even if I wanted to. Oh, and I had to be back in at 8 this morning.

It is not healthy for young, able people, especially young men, to sit idle. Combine that with the frustrations from lockdown and the outrage of Floyd's murder, and you had a tinderbox.
protests and especially riots are usually going to come from young people. it isn't trending you bc of covid.
maybe there are more people than there would have been otherwise, but they still would have been mostly young.
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Old 06-03-2020, 03:54 AM
 
Location: Oregon Coast
8,022 posts, read 3,225,068 times
Reputation: 10835
Quote:
Originally Posted by insulator_king View Post
I agree with that analysis.


$1200 is good money anywhere in New Mexico. Only in High cost states is it not so good. But those states have better unemployment benefits in general. [CA, NY, MA. Not so sure about OR and WA]
I don't think $1,200 is good money in New Mexico or anywhere. I'm in Oregon and living on low disability income. Sure the $1,200, is nice. It's 1.5 x my normal monthly income. But I just put it all into my emergency savings. At the end of the month I had to buy a $100 Amazon gift card, to make sure my bank balance stays below my resource limit for this month. So whoopty doo, I have a whole $100 to spend. Now if Trump wants to throw another $1,200 at me, that is a different story. Then I have no choice but to spend it.

But I can't imagine any working or unemployed person getting very excited about $1,200. If I was working or on unemployment, I would just put it in my bank account and forget about it. Most people who are working are probably losing more then $1,200 in this economy anyway. The unemployed will need it later when their benefits start to run out. $1,200 is not good money. Most people won't even notice it.
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Old 06-03-2020, 04:20 AM
 
Location: Pennsylvania
16,290 posts, read 5,612,964 times
Reputation: 13087
Quote:
Originally Posted by JonathanLB View Post
Not taking it seriously?! Taking what seriously??? The only thing to be taken seriously is the economic damage caused, the virus itself proved to be an absolute joke. A 0.1% mortality rate - if even that - confirmed by many studies and beyond that, turns out you don’t even need a study, it’s right there and obvious - Singapore 33,000 cases, 23 deaths. That’s not even 1 in 1,000. The use of the term “deadly virus” makes me chuckle, I guess we should call aging a deadly disease because it kills everyone. The virus gave a nudge to people already on the edge and pushed them over faster, it didn’t come through and kill a bunch of healthy people. In fact in NYC the death rate for those 18-45 was just 0.01%. So what do you mean he didn’t take it seriously?! He took it TOO seriously! I think more people will end up dying and having their lives ruined because of the idiocy of responding to the virus at all. The best response was Sweden, and the absolute best response would have been to pretend it doesn’t even exist and just go on with our lives. The number of people not getting critical medical care because of these stupid lockdowns is way more concerning than some old and weak people dying of a strong flu.
Great post.
We can show them all of the numbers, but they don't care and will never say we're right. It's all Orange Man Bad, lockdowns good because bad Orange Man might lose 2020 election as a result.
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Old 06-03-2020, 07:29 AM
 
Location: Boston
12,976 posts, read 3,737,209 times
Reputation: 9229
Quote:
Originally Posted by JonathanLB View Post
Not taking it seriously?! Taking what seriously??? The only thing to be taken seriously is the economic damage caused, the virus itself proved to be an absolute joke. A 0.1% mortality rate - if even that - confirmed by many studies and beyond that, turns out you don’t even need a study, it’s right there and obvious - Singapore 33,000 cases, 23 deaths. That’s not even 1 in 1,000. The use of the term “deadly virus” makes me chuckle, I guess we should call aging a deadly disease because it kills everyone. The virus gave a nudge to people already on the edge and pushed them over faster, it didn’t come through and kill a bunch of healthy people. In fact in NYC the death rate for those 18-45 was just 0.01%. So what do you mean he didn’t take it seriously?! He took it TOO seriously! I think more people will end up dying and having their lives ruined because of the idiocy of responding to the virus at all. The best response was Sweden, and the absolute best response would have been to pretend it doesn’t even exist and just go on with our lives. The number of people not getting critical medical care because of these stupid lockdowns is way more concerning than some old and weak people dying of a strong flu.
100,000 deaths from covid

66% of those deaths occurred in long term care facilities

80% of these deaths were people over 65.

another media created crisis to destroy the country. Eventually something will have to be done about the media. Many are becoming domestic terrorists.
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Old 06-03-2020, 09:33 AM
 
1,956 posts, read 1,070,006 times
Reputation: 2810
$ 1200.00 is a crumb compared to the bailouts corporations got and the amount of money poured into PP programs (who, by the way, are free to begin layoffs in October and still have their loans forgiven).

First, it is not even median rent in a metro area (unless you have a studio or a 1 BR, then it might cover it). Secondly, what about loss of health insurance that came with the layoffs? Third, there are other living expenses.

Anyone that thinks $ 1200.00 is a lot of money either has no rent or mortgage, or they are still employed and can bank the money.

We may see another check, but the $600 is gone come July. The only reason it passed in the first place is because the stock market was tanking to the ground. That was McConnell's motivation. However, you can have very high unemployment and still see the markets begin to stablize. In that climate, you will not see additional PUE.

Lastly, I disagree with the poster that said states with high cost of living have higher UE benefits. That just isn't true. At least in Florida, where our max UE is $ 275.00/wk and rent is around $ 1300.00 for a 1BR in safe area (excluding rural towns).
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Old 06-03-2020, 09:45 AM
 
1,956 posts, read 1,070,006 times
Reputation: 2810
The bottom line is there are fewer positions now, even with the economy opening back up.

Once a company realizes it can function with 50% fewer employees (or however many it may be), they are not going to go back to 100% - even if they could, even if social distancing was not a factor.

I do believe many folks may not want to return to work due to the generous PUE - I get that - however, that does not change the fact that the number of jobs still just isn't there.
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Old 06-03-2020, 09:54 AM
 
Location: Oregon Coast
8,022 posts, read 3,225,068 times
Reputation: 10835
Quote:
Originally Posted by skeddy View Post
100,000 deaths from covid

66% of those deaths occurred in long term care facilities

80% of these deaths were people over 65.

another media created crisis to destroy the country. Eventually something will have to be done about the media. Many are becoming domestic terrorists.
For the record it's not 100,000. It's now 108,000 and going up about 1,000 a day, with no end in sight. But hey, most of them are over 65 and in long term care facilities, so LET EM DIE. Human lives are expendable if it helps the stock market go up.
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Old 06-03-2020, 10:16 AM
 
4,557 posts, read 3,403,895 times
Reputation: 4411
At this stage and this is just myself thinking out loud, I don't think the #'s were serious enough to continue to focus on Covid-19 daily. I live in Arkansas and I read that Oklahoma is going to withdraw reporting new infections, any new infections within nursing home facilities, etc. I believe Oklahoma is already operating under Phase 2 guidelines. I'm in Arkansas where we are still operating under Phase 1 guidelines.

It was just recently announced that our state university (University of Arkansas) will have students on campus for the Fall 2020 semester with staggered dates to move in. We're now going to live with the virus, until a vaccine is made available to market. The numbers, if reported mostly accurately, did represent a flattening of the curve to where hospitals and emergency personnel would not be overwhelmed.

I do not have a crystal ball to predict what the next 12-18 months will look like, but I can report that I'm personally very cautiously optimistic. One thing that I do see being long-term is elevated unemployment. The restaurant and hospitality industries were the most impacted, which mostly employees 18-25 year olds. Unfortunately for this age demographic, I would seriously reconsider college and if it's worth it for them. If you're not able to afford college for less than $30,000 in total debt, I would think VERY LONG AND HARD if pursuing a college degree is in your best interest.

I graduated college later in life (27) in 2011. The Obama Administration strongly pushed for all individuals who wanted to, should be able to attend college. Therefore, college became greatly overpriced as campuses and programs expanded to support the growing number of increased enrollment. This was all made possible by FAFSA.

A college education will always carry value. It's carried plenty of value for me. However, I attended college where I could finish with $30,000 in debt (partied some money away & no scholarship) and any career path I chose would likely support my debt threshold. For students graduating with $100k in debt from undergrad are going to have a very difficult time finding a career that will support that debt threshold. This is because students who attended college on scholarship are typically smarter and better suited for the careers that would pay a salary to support that kind of debt threshold. The idea that all individuals should be able to attend college, ultimately failed many individuals that attended college.

Going back to restaurants, I just don't see this industry rebounding much at all. You have too many passion projects calling themselves restaurants in the market and the new market will not be able to bear all of them.
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Old 06-03-2020, 10:35 AM
 
Location: Guadalajara, MX
7,492 posts, read 3,644,311 times
Reputation: 14295
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eeko156 View Post
With the market beginning to rally
I have extended my prediction of DJIA 30k by this Friday with a slight adjustment of somewhere between this Friday and October 2024.
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