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Old 05-28-2020, 09:02 AM
 
1,963 posts, read 503,478 times
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If this sort of manufacturing were to come back to the US, it would be highly automated. I can see absolutely no scenario where tens of thousands of workers per brand/product line are involved.
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Old 05-28-2020, 09:20 AM
 
Location: Western NY
665 posts, read 718,723 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Therblig View Post
If this sort of manufacturing were to come back to the US, it would be highly automated. I can see absolutely no scenario where tens of thousands of workers per brand/product line are involved.
Pick and place used in electronics manufacturing goes as far back as the 80's and is still the system used for automated electronic manufacturing. It was before in US made products, it still is.. Though the pick and place machines have advanced it is the same thing for decades, no difference, USA or overseas. They are faster, multi-head, and more, but that same technology has been around and is not new in any way. Somehow the idea that it was "new" came about, but it isn't new. One thing new about it is there are no more US based makers of pick and place, unless one of these from Wiki is still a US maker:
Juki
Fuji
Panasonic
Yamaha (bought I-Pulse[11])
Hanwha precision machinery (former Samsung Techwin and later Hanwha Techwin)
Kulicke & Soffa (K&S) (former Philips and later Assembleon)
Sony (Now Juki[12])
Asm Siplace (former Siemens)
Universal Instruments
Mycronic
Europlacer
Essemtec
Nordson (Bought Dima[13])
Hitachi (Former Sanyo,[14] SMT division sold to Yamaha[15])
DDM Novastar

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pick-and-place_machine
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Old 05-28-2020, 09:27 AM
 
4,516 posts, read 3,907,405 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TestEngr View Post
A lot of it had to do with maximizing profits in the short term, which also means in the short term minimize production costs. It also means sacrifice the future for the present or short term.

In the long run it is always best to do R&D, design, manufacturing, or any other aspect in US. In short terms it can make things look real good to do the opposite or do it all somewhere else (except the sales).

Motorola was once the largest semiconductor manufacturing company, largest cell phone maker, police radios and much more. It sure looked good to start putting cell phone plants in Brazil and Malaysia where hiring people cost nothing. It sure looked good to spin out that semiconductor division into Taiwan. Doing both of those things made cash look like king and things looked great in short term. But meanwhile Apple and others came out with cell phones while Motorola was worried about setting up cheap production costs in Brazil and Malaysia. It looked good in spin out the semiconductors but without that division it is a fraction the company it once was and it opened things up to a flood of foreign competition since none of it is in US now. Now Motorola still makes police radios, yes and the stock is a good stock, but they are 1/10 the company it could be if it had focused on the long run and not just the short run. I leave lots out here but you can read stories for more details.

In the short run so many things are done to make things look good temporarily, but in long run you lose out. People got bonus for making Motorola 1/10 the company it could be today, they made the stock rise and more valuable. Of course again I leave lots out here but you can read stories for more details and beyond this short summary. It is short term thinking that is the problem.
There have been countless articles and books written on this subject. A lot of observers say, things started to go downhill when U.S. manufacturers started hiring and promoting business people over technical people. In Japan, a lot of management come from technical backgrounds, or did until recently.

Not to wander too far from economics, but we do have to consider sociological factors here. Americans have lost interest in engineering and technical fields, to the point where much technical work happens in other countries, even PhD level work today. Americans have become a society of consumers, doing service industry work and exporting a few energy, chemicals, and agricultural products to pay the bills.

I have often thought about starting a manufacturing business here in the northeastern U.S., but the obstacles are enormous. Regulations, taxes, liability concerns, and a prevailing anti-business attitude pretty much guarantee failure. Parts of the country are more pro-business than others, but with the razor thin margins that comes with the territory, the odds are not in your favor.

LED and LCD displays are used on nearly every electronics product made today. That's got to be a multi-billion dollar market. Could I start an LED display manufacturing business here in New England and get a piece of that action? It would take some innovation in the design and performance, probably, but it would get stolen/copied/commoditized so quickly as to be almost a fool's errand. Not to mention, NIMBY regulators would be on my butt all the time, checking for "diversity" in my work force and similar nonsense. Perhaps that's why no one bothers any more. Software is much easier to outsource and distribute the labor all over the world, invisibly.
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Old 05-28-2020, 09:39 AM
 
1,963 posts, read 503,478 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TestEngr View Post
Pick and place used in electronics manufacturing goes as far back as the 80's and is still the system used for automated electronic manufacturing.
I'm familiar with it, having designed gear for production.

Not sure what your point is; yes, there was an era in between hand assembly and semi-automated assembly before nearly all electronics manufacture left the US. As you note, that was decades ago.

If a major was to bring electronics manufacture back to this side of the pond, it would be with automation 30 years newer... and with even more of it, to replace the cheap labor that is (at present) less expensive than another layer of automation. Both production processes and the products themselves would be redesigned for minimal human assembly steps.
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Old 05-28-2020, 09:45 AM
 
Location: Western NY
665 posts, read 718,723 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Therblig View Post
I'm familiar with it, having designed gear for production.

Not sure what your point is; yes, there was an era in between hand assembly and semi-automated assembly before nearly all electronics manufacture left the US. As you note, that was decades ago.

If a major was to bring electronics manufacture back to this side of the pond, it would be with automation 30 years newer... and with even more of it, to replace the cheap labor that is (at present) less expensive than another layer of automation. Both production processes and the products themselves would be redesigned for minimal human assembly steps.

Your point was no jobs are created, this is false. You see the list of pick and place makers? They could be US makers too. So too the parts suppliers, you think that is no jobs? The parts suppliers and connectors are some of the biggest companies, think semiconductors, plus connector makers like Molex, etc. There are many jobs in plants aside from that anyway. Then a company on top of what is being made, bringing in ideas from the floor to the R&D group happens too, I saw it. Jobs were certainly created, many, plus being on top and leading to market. It is false to say there are no jobs created in US based manufacturing. Manufacturing creates lots of jobs.
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Old 05-28-2020, 09:50 AM
 
Location: Western NY
665 posts, read 718,723 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blisterpeanuts View Post
There have been countless articles and books written on this subject. A lot of observers say, things started to go downhill when U.S. manufacturers started hiring and promoting business people over technical people. In Japan, a lot of management come from technical backgrounds, or did until recently.

Not to wander too far from economics, but we do have to consider sociological factors here. Americans have lost interest in engineering and technical fields, to the point where much technical work happens in other countries, even PhD level work today. Americans have become a society of consumers, doing service industry work and exporting a few energy, chemicals, and agricultural products to pay the bills.

I have often thought about starting a manufacturing business here in the northeastern U.S., but the obstacles are enormous. Regulations, taxes, liability concerns, and a prevailing anti-business attitude pretty much guarantee failure. Parts of the country are more pro-business than others, but with the razor thin margins that comes with the territory, the odds are not in your favor.

LED and LCD displays are used on nearly every electronics product made today. That's got to be a multi-billion dollar market. Could I start an LED display manufacturing business here in New England and get a piece of that action? It would take some innovation in the design and performance, probably, but it would get stolen/copied/commoditized so quickly as to be almost a fool's errand. Not to mention, NIMBY regulators would be on my butt all the time, checking for "diversity" in my work force and similar nonsense. Perhaps that's why no one bothers any more. Software is much easier to outsource and distribute the labor all over the world, invisibly.

This is why I have said to so many people, the US has OSHA, it has environmental inspectors. In manufacturing you can't release toxins to the environment and will be checked in the USA. It is costly but it is good. The thing to do is make it right by a import tax for NOT doing the environmental and OSHA type stuff on overseas products. So a product coming from country Y that doesn't have OSHA or environmental inspectors gets a special import tax. It is only way to make it fair. They don't have the where-with-all to setup checking for all that while the US does. There is only one way to make it fair, a tax that calls that out.
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Old 05-28-2020, 10:03 AM
 
5,222 posts, read 10,138,532 times
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There is a little (meaning a LOT) more going on than just this.

In the 60s -- when US had become the consumer(s) of the World . . . a notion to create the Global Plantation Model came about. Other countries -- over there -- wherever over there was were targeted to become integrated in "Our" Transnational Corporate Supply chain.

This was actively promoted and (mis)educated into our top business schools and sponsored by US manipulation groups like the Council of Foreign Relations, and even directly by the .gov as part of OPIC https://www.opic.gov/

At the same time -- or shortly following -- Tariffs were attacked, the dollar floated as Bretton Woods collapsed, and we began substituting Debt for actual Wealth. This is not some accident. It is / was well planned and orchestrated.
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Old 05-28-2020, 10:04 AM
 
1,963 posts, read 503,478 times
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Originally Posted by TestEngr View Post
Your point was no jobs are created, this is false. You see the list of pick and place makers? They could be US makers too..
A largely bogus argument already proven false by prior history.

There are not as many workers designing, building and maintaining automotive assembly robots as there were assembly line workers displaced. Not by some very significant factor. It would be higher but for the heavy unionization and American sentimentality about the good old days.

Multiply that times every industry that has gone to systems and processes with higher efficiency, man-hour reductions, worker replacement and so forth. Start with steel and coal, industries that used heavy automation and fairly crude robotics to reduce workforces on a 1000:1 scale... without producing anywhere near the number of replacement jobs.

One pick-and-place line built by, say, fifty people permanently replaces at least that number, and probably a multiple of it, three shifts a day, 365 days a year.

The vague handwave that one industry just replaces another stopped being true in the 1970s, and it does not take an Elon Musk to see that new industries are not going to be built on legions of workers, but from automation and AI right from the genius's garage. As I've pointed out too many times: look at Tesla's factories. A level of automation that even other makers haven't reached (yet).

Tomorrow will not be like yesterday, no matter how highly you regard your tech-building peers.
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Old 05-28-2020, 10:10 AM
 
Location: Western NY
665 posts, read 718,723 times
Reputation: 795
Quote:
Originally Posted by Therblig View Post
A largely bogus argument already proven false by prior history.

There are not as many workers designing, building and maintaining automotive assembly robots as there were assembly line workers displaced. Not by some very significant factor. It would be higher but for the heavy unionization and American sentimentality about the good old days.

Multiply that times every industry that has gone to systems and processes with higher efficiency, man-hour reductions, worker replacement and so forth. Start with steel and coal, industries that used heavy automation and fairly crude robotics to reduce workforces on a 1000:1 scale... without producing anywhere near the number of replacement jobs

[...] cut as same line on and on

Your point seems is it is hopeless to do anything therefore US should never do anything. I guess you live in the Start Trek model, replicator make me dinner, make me a new computer, make me, serve me. Kind of looks also like Wall-E movie what you want.

I didn't say 90% of what you said I said, your line is just a cop out is what we used to call it. Apologies if it offends but it is a complete cop out, you want to sit around and do nothing with all your justifications why doing nothing is the answer to everything. Go ahead. But not everyone wants to be like that.
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Old 05-28-2020, 10:14 AM
 
1,963 posts, read 503,478 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TestEngr View Post
Your point seems is it is hopeless to do anything therefore US should never do anything.
Hardly.

But agitation to "create jobs" and "bring jobs back to the US, rah rah" is one with bringing back high-button shoes. Those jobs didn't simply relocate overseas; in the longer run they simply evaporated. No equivalent jobs are likely to be created in any large number.

I've addressed that problem directly in multiple threads, including one sticking to subject very well right now.
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