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Old 06-19-2020, 02:14 PM
 
4,578 posts, read 3,928,740 times
Reputation: 10942

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Therblig View Post
Not by mandating its existence. Whether for The Good Of The People or The Good Of The Army, that's very specifically an -ism most Americans reject.

Our generally free market system works pretty well, overall. Those who argue for absolute laissez-faire are greedy idiots; those who argue for total control of markets are clueless idiots. The answer, as we've pretty much found over the last five decades, is in the middle: a free market with regulation and control and (some) mandates to maintain national security.

But I reject the notion that we should somehow be 100% ready for tech/industry/manufacturing isolation and every world possibility up to war, given how many other things that readiness would cost. If a pretty balloon goes up, we have perhaps more resources in the continental US than any similar region on earth to adapt and cope.

Again, I agree the US should have at least basic manufacture of critical military and infrastructure elements, at least at a level that could be ramped up quickly if need be. But all consumer good manufacture can stay in China et al. and is better left there.
At a certain point, China will have a much larger domestic consumer market and they will no longer need us. At that point, we will be like an African developing country, begging them for technology, and they will mete it out to us or not, as they please. We'll get their 2nd rate tech. They wouldn't want us learning how to make the good stuff.

They'll make all the electric cars, which will be the majority of vehicles on the road in 20 years. They'll perhaps condescend to assemble a few of them in the U.S., to assuage the few remaining advocates of domestic manufacturing.

They'll make all the electronics, all the computer chips, all the communications gear. We'll just have to hope it's not all loaded with spyware. But we will have no way of knowing; they'll cryptographically lock up all their chips and we won't have the expertise to crack them.

By then, of course, the U.S. might not even be a country. We have widespread civil unrest right now, this week, that could potentially boil over into a civil war. I think our best case scenario is regional divisions that fall short of separate countries. The larger cities versus the suburbs and rural districts.

So maybe you're right. Forget about trying to recapture manufacturing, because we're screwed anyway.

But I'm an optimist and I think at least certain parts of the country will reclaim technology, even if others poo-poo the idea. They can keep buying Chinese goods on a credit card if they want.
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Old 06-19-2020, 02:22 PM
 
2,124 posts, read 572,116 times
Reputation: 3405
Quote:
Originally Posted by blisterpeanuts View Post
So maybe you're right. Forget about trying to recapture manufacturing, because we're screwed anyway.
That's nothing like what I said.


Keep this in mind: I have one coherent viewpoint across all these threads. It's all one discussion to me; I am operating from a very specific body of knowledge and ideas, not pulling this stuff out of a kleenex box because of someone else's post or something I saw on Reddit or a TV news crawl.

My point here boils down to this: any form of trying to return the US to "1955" is pointless, wasted effort keeping us from moving forward in the right ways... which do not include becoming nothing but a consumer/debtor country. There is a more straightforward solution right in front of us that only requires, well, massive rethinking of our meta-economy.

And when we put our minds to it, we think pretty good.
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Old 06-19-2020, 02:22 PM
 
3,599 posts, read 2,274,591 times
Reputation: 8141
Quote:
Originally Posted by blisterpeanuts View Post
At a certain point, China will have a much larger domestic consumer market and they will no longer need us. At that point, we will be like an African developing countrybegging them for technology, and they will mete it out to us or not, as they please. We'll get their 2nd rate tech. They wouldn't want us learning how to make the good stuff.

They'll make all the electric cars, which will be the majority of vehicles on the road in 20 years. They'll perhaps condescend to assemble a few of them in the U.S., to assuage the few remaining advocates of domestic manufacturing.

They'll make all the electronics, all the computer chips, all the communications gear. We'll just have to hope it's not all loaded with spyware. But we will have no way of knowing; they'll cryptographically lock up all their chips and we won't have the expertise to crack them.

By then, of course, the U.S. might not even be a country. We have widespread civil unrest right now, this week, that could potentially boil over into a civil warI think our best case scenario is regional divisions that fall short of separate countries. The larger cities versus the suburbs and rural districts.

So maybe you're right. Forget about trying to recapture manufacturing, because we're screwed anyway.

But I'm an optimistand I think at least certain parts of the country will reclaim technology, even if others poo-poo the idea. They can keep buying Chinese goods on a credit card if they want.
Yeah, a shining beacon of it.
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Old 06-19-2020, 02:29 PM
 
2,124 posts, read 572,116 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thatsright19 View Post
Yeah, a shining beacon of it.
...of what? Your bolds don't add up to anything.
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Old 06-19-2020, 02:39 PM
 
3,599 posts, read 2,274,591 times
Reputation: 8141
Quote:
Originally Posted by Therblig View Post
...of what? Your bolds don't add up to anything.
Optimism. He or she was saying they were an optimist after they predicted civil war, collapse of the country, and America being a beggar nation level of status.

I was being sarcastic.
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Old 06-19-2020, 03:28 PM
 
4,578 posts, read 3,928,740 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thatsright19 View Post
Optimism. He or she was saying they were an optimist after they predicted civil war, collapse of the country, and America being a beggar nation level of status.

I was being sarcastic.
I'm hopeful. That's why I started this thread. To discuss how we can get back to manufacturing and stop being so dependent on frenemies for our vital supply chains.
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Old 06-19-2020, 03:28 PM
 
2,124 posts, read 572,116 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thatsright19 View Post
I was being sarcastic.
Got it.

An optimist is someone who's never lived through things they see as negatives.
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Old 06-21-2020, 07:21 AM
 
Location: Western NY
667 posts, read 721,956 times
Reputation: 795
Just some biggest companies in various countries. Even the US companies that sell anything electronic (Apple) it isn't made in US. You could get a lot made in Japan or Korea electronics wise. From Wikipedia and sorry it is hard to copy in a easy to read way, and may not be recent, so not a perfect thing to look at (just quick)

USA
rank name
1 Walmart
2 ExxonMobil
3 Apple
4 BP Amoco
5 Berkshire Hathaway
6 Amazon
7 UnitedHealth Group
8 McKesson
9 CVS Health
10 AT&T
11 AmerisourceBergen
12 Chevron
13 Ford
14 General Motors
15 Costco Retail
16 Alphabet
17 Cardinal Health
18 Walgreens Boots Alliance
19 JPMorgan Chase
20 Verizon
21 Kroger
22 General Electric
23 Fannie Mae
24 Phillips 66
25 Valero
26 Bank of America
27 Fiat Chrysler Automobiles
28 Microsoft
29 The Home Depot
30 Boeing

Japan
rank f500 name
1 10 Toyota Automotive
2 33 Mitsubishi
3 34 Honda Automotive
4 52 Japan Post Holdings
5 64 Nippon Telegraph and Telephone
6 65 Itochu Trading
7 66 Nissan Automotive
8 85 SoftBank Group
9 79 Hitachi
10 105 JXTG Holdings
11 116 Sony
12 118 AEON
13 125 Nippon Life
14 131 Panasonic
15 147 Marubeni
16 153 Dai-ichi Life
17 157 Mitsui Conglomerate
18 159 Seven & I Holdings Co.
19 162 Toyota Tsusho Trading
20 166 Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
21 178 Tokyo Electric Power Company
22 186 Nippon Steel
23 209 Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group
24 222 MS&AD Insurance Group
25 224 Tokio Marine
27 230 Denso Automotive
26 231 Sumitomo Group Trading
28 245 KDDI
29 300 Mitsubishi Electric
30 309 Meiji Yasuda Life
31 327 Daiwa House
32 334 Mitsubishi Heavy Industries
33 339 Aisin Seiki
34 345 Canon Inc.
35 349 Fujitsu

Korea
rank f500 Name
1 15 Samsung Electronics
2 73 SK Holdings
3 94 Hyundai Motor
4 171 POSCO Steel
5 185 LG Electronics
6 193 Korea Electric Power Corporation
7 227 Kia Motors
8 261 Hanwha Conglomerate
9 335 SK Hynix
10 376 GS Caltex
11 393 Hyundai Mobis
12 426 Samsung Life Insurance
13 434 KB Financial Group
14 444 Samsung C&T
15 463 CJ Corporation
16 490 LG Chem
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Old 06-21-2020, 05:10 PM
 
728 posts, read 247,904 times
Reputation: 984
Quote:
They'll make all the electronics, all the computer chips, all the communications gear. We'll just have to hope it's not all loaded with spyware. But we will have no way of knowing; they'll cryptographically lock up all their chips and we won't have the expertise to crack them.
Doubt it.
Since the 80s, we have been seeing the rise of Korean semiconductor chips. At that time, I worked briefly for a German company sourcing for chips, even silver and gold. Then, Samsung bought it over.
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Old 06-22-2020, 08:07 AM
 
10,187 posts, read 5,179,331 times
Reputation: 9817
Quote:
Originally Posted by blisterpeanuts View Post
At a certain point, China will have a much larger domestic consumer market and they will no longer need us. At that point, we will be like an African developing country, begging them for technology, and they will mete it out to us or not, as they please. We'll get their 2nd rate tech. They wouldn't want us learning how to make the good stuff.

They'll make all the electric cars, which will be the majority of vehicles on the road in 20 years. They'll perhaps condescend to assemble a few of them in the U.S., to assuage the few remaining advocates of domestic manufacturing.

They'll make all the electronics, all the computer chips, all the communications gear. We'll just have to hope it's not all loaded with spyware. But we will have no way of knowing; they'll cryptographically lock up all their chips and we won't have the expertise to crack them.

By then, of course, the U.S. might not even be a country. We have widespread civil unrest right now, this week, that could potentially boil over into a civil war. I think our best case scenario is regional divisions that fall short of separate countries. The larger cities versus the suburbs and rural districts.

So maybe you're right. Forget about trying to recapture manufacturing, because we're screwed anyway.

But I'm an optimist and I think at least certain parts of the country will reclaim technology, even if others poo-poo the idea. They can keep buying Chinese goods on a credit card if they want.
Having spent time doing business in China it's likely further away than most people think.

Without protections for intellectual property, anyone doing innovation in China has to (1) share it with the government and (2) is likely to get ripped off by another Chinese company - either directly or indirectly by hiring away their people.

I've seen it firsthand where a company was set up in China from previous employees of an American software company. They took source code with them and basically cloned something for the Chinese market. Even used screenshots of the previous software (including the old logo). No repercussions.
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