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Old 06-22-2020, 08:36 PM
 
728 posts, read 247,904 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markjames68 View Post
Having spent time doing business in China it's likely further away than most people think.

Without protections for intellectual property, anyone doing innovation in China has to (1) share it with the government and (2) is likely to get ripped off by another Chinese company - either directly or indirectly by hiring away their people.

I've seen it firsthand where a company was set up in China from previous employees of an American software company. They took source code with them and basically cloned something for the Chinese market. Even used screenshots of the previous software (including the old logo). No repercussions.
They are aware of their limitations, and are seeking only short term and quick profits; not long term and expensive R&Ds.

Recently, one academician pointed out that they are far behind the west in EDA (Electronics Design Automation). The EDA is just one of the industrial software types.
But without EDA, all chip design, development and production around the world must be shut down.
Cadence, Synopsys, and Siemen's Mentor Graphics have absolute monopolies in the global EDA market.
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Old 06-23-2020, 05:34 AM
 
Location: Western NY
667 posts, read 722,433 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markjames68 View Post
Korea is the new Japan. And as their chaebols are similar to Japanese zaibatsu there is strength in having these big conglomerates
Well you had in the US companies like GE doing medical imaging, trains, refrigerators, airplane engines, etc but it got to a classic over managed situation and what I will call "cutting areas to make gains" (which means losing). US is plain and simple over managed. For each dumb move the over managed companies in US make the executive compensations go up, bonus plans given out, and huge golden parachutes are given, all wrongly because the company was making wrong moves. Companies are becoming (or became in many situations) worthless in US because of over management.


Quote:
Originally Posted by blisterpeanuts View Post
I witnessed this type of thing all the time when I lived in Taiwan. Very hard working people, but a different tradition of intellectual property from ours.

I.e., no tradition of intellectual property. At that time, you could go into a particular well known bookstore in downtown Taipei and buy cheap photo-reproductions of all the best sellers, textbooks, music, movies, etc. from the U.S. market. Typical price: $1 or $2.
.
Or the US development package for some engineering area that I paid $5K a year to use/own, is sold all over for a few dollars in places like that. Companies got smart in their packages and did everything to try and stop it, but they will use an old version which is distributed everywhere. But here I was, I paid $5K every year for decades.


There isn't much winning to talk about on this whole discussion. If the US would really try we could, I just don't see any companies stepping up really. We will see.

Last edited by TestEngr; 06-23-2020 at 06:03 AM..
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Old 06-23-2020, 06:56 AM
 
2,654 posts, read 1,010,881 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Therblig View Post
Whoever does it cheapest and best.

The flaw this argument usually runs into is that somehow robotics and automation will replace the other industries in revenue, employment, tax base etc. Which is wrong.

I'm searching for a term but what comes to mind is "reductive" — production of automation will be largely self-cancelling in that each and every "robot" produced is not a product or a commodity, but a permanent addition to a system that reduces the need for both human workforce and any notable flow of replacement robots. In effect, the system is building its own permanent replacement. What might be called "peak robot" will be reached in some fairly short time (a few decades?), and production will fall drastically after that as it becomes less and less frequent replacement and upgrading... and these will already be systems designed to be 'upgraded in place' and not replaced wholesale every few years.

And then it will be AI/automation designing and manufacturing the next generations.

Something like building a great wall of China... you're going to need a bazillion bricks, but only to a fixed end point, after which you won't be able to give bricks away. It's completely illusory to think that this revolution will somehow generate hundreds of millions of 'replacement' jobs.
This AI/automation meme is nearing the end of its run. Some shysters in Silicon Valley made bank on it but the reality is that machines have not displaced human workers, and they likely never will. The bottom line is that compared to animals, the machines use too much energy, are inflexible, cannot repair themselves, and cannot reproduce. It’s cheaper to use humans (imported or home-grown) for most of these tasks.
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Old 06-23-2020, 07:17 AM
 
4,581 posts, read 3,931,729 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TestEngr View Post
There isn't much winning to talk about on this whole discussion. If the US would really try we could, I just don't see any companies stepping up really. We will see.
Tesla, maybe.

Although, even they set up a plant in China. If their California plant ever shuts down (well basically it did for a while because of the virus), we'll all be driving China-made Tesla's.

Manufacturing acumen begins with K-12, builds strength with university science and engineering, and requires a pro-business entrepreneurial spirit to thrive. We aren't really providing that kind of education anymore; our kids are coming out of high school with no fundamental comprehension of how business works, what democracy means, how to debate.

I think we need to wipe the slate clean and start all over: mandatory national service for all 18-year-olds, either military or civil. No special favors, no social justice set-asides, just get them out there in the mud and dig ditches and repair the dams and bridges and infrastructure. Or enlist.

An old friend of mine joined Junior Achievement in high school and started a business. He learned so much in that program; I'm envious to this day. Not sure if they are still active in this sense; their web site is all about social justice and pious declarations about minorities, so maybe they've lost their mojo.

But something like that would be great for kids. We have to get back our entrepreneurship!
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Old 06-23-2020, 08:55 AM
 
2,129 posts, read 572,116 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TimAZ View Post
This AI/automation meme is nearing the end of its run. Some shysters in Silicon Valley made bank on it but the reality is that machines have not displaced human workers, and they likely never will. The bottom line is that compared to animals, the machines use too much energy, are inflexible, cannot repair themselves, and cannot reproduce. It’s cheaper to use humans (imported or home-grown) for most of these tasks.
Ah. Good to know. Damn when online memes turn out not to be hard fact. Damn and damn again.

I guess that 'climate change meme' is dead, too, since nothing much has really happened despite all the hoopla. And all signs are that the tiresome 'BLM meme' has about run its course.

So what's this week's meme? I've lost track.
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Old 06-23-2020, 11:42 AM
 
Location: Columbia SC
10,441 posts, read 9,062,461 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hemlock140 View Post
I had a sign business for 26 years, and at the time I closed up in the recession (2008) was paying my last employee $14/hour. About a year before I had a visit from a woman who was offering a service where I would send the artwork (data files) to her people in China who would produce my signs for about 1/3 of what it cost me to make them, and that included shipping. I passed because the turn-around time was too long, but also because I wasn't about to contribute to the loss of jobs here. With electronics, and most every other consumer items, it's hard to compete with other countries that don't have the same labor laws.
You hit the nail on the head.
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Old 06-28-2020, 11:07 AM
 
27,999 posts, read 30,512,891 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TestEngr View Post
A lot of it had to do with maximizing profits in the short term, which also means in the short term minimize production costs. It also means sacrifice the future for the present or short term.
This is the answer.

And and even more insidious one is that the global elite don't want any nation of the world to be self sufficient. They want to hold every country on the planet hostage to their agenda. They set it up so that the price of any country saying "no" to them will be deemed too high.
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Old 06-29-2020, 06:09 AM
 
1,577 posts, read 829,600 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VitaminB12 View Post
Sure, but we currently provide the manufacturing "sprinkles and cherries" to the electronic supply chain "sundae" with our semiconductors.

I think some mid-level manufacturing will naturally comeback due to automation because sooner than later it will be robots doing the soldering to low to medium cost electronics instead of just the high end stuff. Part of that supercycle.
VitaminB12 and Blisterpeanuts, I have some interest in yours and other contributors posts in these economic threads. But I believe that governments’ laws regulations and policies best operate when they’re drafted and enacted in more objective rather than subjective manners; (i.e. governing more based upon written constitutions, and regulations., rather than whatever are peoples’ current opinions).

I’m among those contending that although the proposed improved trade policy described in Wikipedia’s “Import Certificates” article would more significantly reduce our nation’s annual trade deficits while increasing our GDPs more than otherwise, it accomplishes that with less government, and more market determinations.
Adopting the unilateral Import Certificate policy does not enable any, (including their own government) to choose among product producers or foreign governments.

The law’s not applicable to values of scarce or precious minerals integral to foreign traded goods which may be explicitly listed within the drafted regulations. But otherwise it the law doesn’t choose among products, (i.e. the regulatory manners of treating foreign traded manufactured , agricultural and ranching products are equitable to each other).

Refer to: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Import_certificates
Respectfully, Supposn
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Old 06-29-2020, 06:52 AM
 
1,577 posts, read 829,600 times
Reputation: 404
Quote:
Originally Posted by VitaminB12 View Post
... Sure, but we currently provide the manufacturing "sprinkles and cherries" to the electronic supply chain "sundae" with our semiconductors.

I think some mid-level manufacturing will naturally comeback due to automation because sooner than later it will be robots doing the soldering to low to medium cost electronics instead of just the high end stuff. Part of that supercycle.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TimAZ View Post
This AI/automation meme is nearing the end of its run. Some shysters in Silicon Valley made bank on it but the reality is that machines have not displaced human workers, and they likely never will. The bottom line is that compared to animals, the machines use too much energy, are inflexible, cannot repair themselves, and cannot reproduce. It’s cheaper to use humans (imported or home-grown) for most of these tasks.
AI robots are expensive to develop, maintain, and upgrade. Additionally, (as TimAZ points out), they’re often less flexible. Due to continuation of our seeking “pure free-trade” foreign policy, most of our robotically manufactured goods will still be imported and continue being to the net detriment of our jobs’ numbers and median wages’ purchasing powers.

Refer to: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Import_certificates
Respectfully, Supposn
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Old 07-02-2020, 01:15 PM
 
Location: Earth
5,884 posts, read 3,801,620 times
Reputation: 4418
If we can't make electronics in Texas or the south, why not move production to mexico? At least with mexico, the US can control the country unlike the PRC.
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