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Old 05-29-2020, 10:53 AM
 
Location: The Triad (NC)
30,212 posts, read 66,715,215 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Therblig View Post
I'm not sure there's much value in continually pointing out a problem ...
I do and for several reasons. Why chop at comments you largely agree with?
Let someone else have a chance to critique and the points might be fleshed out more.
(this was a bad habit you had when you were here before too)

Quote:
...that will take two generations to two centuries to solve as the... focal point of solutions.
The shot clock on that solving thing doesn't start until most agree these objectives matter.
It's only then that real progress toward something can begin. Until then it's mostly just a circle jerk.

So, and as I see it.... the first step toward meaningful change (lets call it improvement) seems to be
the sort of realignment of resources and objectives that can't really be achieved until population stasis.
That's three conditional terms of a general nature and that'll be tough enough to achieve.
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Old 05-29-2020, 11:25 AM
 
1,978 posts, read 503,478 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MrRational View Post
I do and for several reasons. Why chop at comments you largely agree with?
I'm not. There's just a vocal contingent here who reduces all problems to some variation of overpopulation, every time, every thread, without really addressing the actual problem under discussion. It could be "Commies!" or "Socialism!" or "Aliens!" or "Those People, You Know!" instead of "Population!" and it wouldn't advance the discussion one bit more.

No question: global population is the literal elephant in the room. US population should probably be reduced in some proportion for many reasons as well. But neither of those issues can even be seriously addressed in less than a generation or two, never mind "solved." Even extending the argument to "we're breeding too many workers for which there are no jobs" — something you should know well is at the center of most of my arguments here — is noted but pretty irrelevant to fixing things in, say, the next 50 years.

So by all means plant the "Population!" flag in any topic where it's relevant, which is a lot of them... but I'd ask that you also bring something that deals with the topic problem in a reasonable time frame as well.
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Old 05-29-2020, 11:27 AM
 
Location: Western NY
665 posts, read 718,723 times
Reputation: 795
Quote:
Originally Posted by SkyDog77 View Post
Again, there is more to this than you’re discussing. Have you been to Silicon Valley lately? There is an arms race for talent. Apple’s HQ buys them talent. Buying factories from Motorola doesn’t.

Apple’s strategic/competitive advantage doesn’t come from hardware. Hardware is table stakes.
Before I retired I had a quick interview with Apple (about a few years ago), mostly because I developed numerous medical instrument interfaces for physicians in a large part of my career (when I didn't do phones but I also had phone experience). It was about the watch and health, etc. Due to my own personal health issues I am not really able to move to California or anything but I suppose I could have gotten into that had I the energy anymore. At any rate I would not call it an arms race at all. Compared to what doctors use health wise there is no way to do it fully diagnostically, you pick off a small aspect of something health-wise and that is good but it is not going to be medically diagnostic unless you want to go through FDA and they didn’t want that a few years ago when they were ramping that up.

But it is not an arms race, they have specific models of certain things they want to do, so very scripted. An arms race is more they have an open model, less scripting. Maybe somebody has hardware to offer, maybe software, maybe interface ideas, or add on product ideas, etc. So not scripted makes for open arms race if you want to call it that, but it must also involve hardware (like for add on products) or it is just going to be way too limited. And that was my impression when I talked to them, interesting, but over managed or over scripted. It will get them something but they need to open things a bit. Something like a company that doesn’t want to mix R&D, production, plus all kinds of people of all hardware software knowledge. It takes all kinds, they aren’t there on some things on that. I have lots of hope for Apple, but if they go too far on software alone it isn't going to work. Plus they must get out of the environmental and labor system overseas. Sure it got them to a start, now it must be cleaned up and abuses gone. You may think that is not all that meaningful, but it is to me. They can do that easily too.
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Old 05-29-2020, 11:44 AM
 
Location: Washington Park, Denver
8,082 posts, read 7,505,926 times
Reputation: 9105
Quote:
Originally Posted by TestEngr View Post
Before I retired I had a quick interview with Apple (about a few years ago), mostly because I developed numerous medical instrument interfaces for physicians in a large part of my career (when I didn't do phones but I also had phone experience). It was about the watch and health, etc. Due to my own personal health issues I am not really able to move to California or anything but I suppose I could have gotten into that had I the energy anymore. At any rate I would not call it an arms race at all. Compared to what doctors use health wise there is no way to do it fully diagnostically, you pick off a small aspect of something health-wise and that is good but it is not going to be medically diagnostic unless you want to go through FDA and they didn’t want that a few years ago when they were ramping that up.

But it is not an arms race, they have specific models of certain things they want to do, so very scripted. An arms race is more they have an open model, less scripting. Maybe somebody has hardware to offer, maybe software, maybe interface ideas, or add on product ideas, etc. So not scripted makes for open arms race if you want to call it that, but it must also involve hardware (like for add on products) or it is just going to be way too limited. And that was my impression when I talked to them, interesting, but over managed or over scripted. It will get them something but they need to open things a bit. Something like a company that doesn’t want to mix R&D, production, plus all kinds of people of all hardware software knowledge. It takes all kinds, they aren’t there on some things on that. I have lots of hope for Apple, but if they go too far on software alone it isn't going to work. Plus they must get out of the environmental and labor system overseas. Sure it got them to a start, now it must be cleaned up and abuses gone. You may think that is not all that meaningful, but it is to me. They can do that easily too.
I really think you’re looking at this in a very granular manner. I am very close to a lot of engineers who work in Silicon Valley. There is an absolute arms race for hiring talent between the big firms like Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Adobe, Tesla, etc.

Looking at Apple as a firm that makes a watch or a phone completely misses the point. Hardware is not the differentiator for them.
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Old 05-29-2020, 11:52 AM
 
1,978 posts, read 503,478 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SkyDog77 View Post
Looking at Apple as a firm that makes a watch or a phone completely misses the point. Hardware is not the differentiator for them.
They long to be a software/UI company but can't let go of the hardware that made them and continues to carry their brand.
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Old 05-29-2020, 11:55 AM
 
Location: Western NY
665 posts, read 718,723 times
Reputation: 795
Quote:
Originally Posted by SkyDog77 View Post
I really think you’re looking at this in a very granular manner. I am very close to a lot of engineers who work in Silicon Valley. There is an absolute arms race for hiring talent between the big firms like Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Adobe, Tesla, etc.
Good luck with that must be no hardware "California dreaming" talent searching thing.
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Old 05-29-2020, 12:54 PM
 
Location: Washington Park, Denver
8,082 posts, read 7,505,926 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TestEngr View Post
Good luck with that must be no hardware "California dreaming" talent searching thing.
The point is that hardware is largely a commodity. The Apple ecosystem is much, much more difficult to replicate than a phone or a watch. If you look at when the rise their in value began, it’s when iTunes was launched in 2001.

Last edited by SkyDog77; 05-29-2020 at 01:56 PM..
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Old 05-29-2020, 01:06 PM
 
Location: The Triad (NC)
30,212 posts, read 66,715,215 times
Reputation: 35676
Quote:
Originally Posted by Therblig View Post
... but I'd ask that you also bring something that deals with the topic problem in a reasonable time frame as well.
I thought I had. Here's two specifics:
1) Getting UBI sold to those most affected by the Sutton Principle involved will demand it.
2) The economic viability of UBI (once established) needs the population reduction to continue.
eta: 3) The over-saturated public utility and infrastructure burden in almost all areas.

Last edited by MrRational; 05-29-2020 at 01:15 PM..
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Old 05-29-2020, 01:34 PM
 
16,882 posts, read 9,354,199 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lieqiang View Post
Being able to buy a new $500 flat screen TV every five years is a much better deal than the $4,000 piece of furniture TV.

We had one with fake wooden drawers on it, and when it finally broke we took the smaller 13" one from the kitchen and placed it on top of it. We rolled that way for at least another few years.



You're stating something as fact here that you just made up because it sounds right, but it isn't. That's a bad habit.
You also can’t easily repair a surface mount printed circuit board. It’s not like the old days where some lightly trained TV repairman could easily spot a burned out vacuum tube and replace it. I’ve worked with techs who could rework PCBs but they make pushing 6 figures. It’s cheaper to toss it in the trash than have someone at that skill and comp level making house calls to fix panels.

Circling back on topic, every penny you spend extra doing domestic production is a penny of profit you don’t make. If you want to move manufacturing back to the United States, you have to do a Brazil and have domestic content laws. I spent the last decade+ in the cable modem business. The margins are really lousy. You’re making a few dollars per unit when you sell to the Comcast and Charter giants. You couldn’t possibly manufacture in the United States unless everyone had to manufacture in the United States or face a giant tariff. I imagine all consumer electronics have the same math. It’s only prestige branded products like iPhones where you have better margins.

I’d also comment that I spent the last decade+ working with Asian engineers. They’ve caught up. They’re generally stronger than most US development groups because college students don’t have investment banker as a career option so more bright people land in engineering. 30 years ago, they didn’t have the institutional knowledge and process to develop reliable products. That has changed dramatically and they’re now as good as anyone.
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Old 05-29-2020, 02:15 PM
 
Location: Washington Park, Denver
8,082 posts, read 7,505,926 times
Reputation: 9105
Quote:
Originally Posted by GeoffD View Post
You also can’t easily repair a surface mount printed circuit board. It’s not like the old days where some lightly trained TV repairman could easily spot a burned out vacuum tube and replace it. I’ve worked with techs who could rework PCBs but they make pushing 6 figures. It’s cheaper to toss it in the trash than have someone at that skill and comp level making house calls to fix panels.

Circling back on topic, every penny you spend extra doing domestic production is a penny of profit you don’t make. If you want to move manufacturing back to the United States, you have to do a Brazil and have domestic content laws. I spent the last decade+ in the cable modem business. The margins are really lousy. You’re making a few dollars per unit when you sell to the Comcast and Charter giants. You couldn’t possibly manufacture in the United States unless everyone had to manufacture in the United States or face a giant tariff. I imagine all consumer electronics have the same math. It’s only prestige branded products like iPhones where you have better margins.

I’d also comment that I spent the last decade+ working with Asian engineers. They’ve caught up. They’re generally stronger than most US development groups because college students don’t have investment banker as a career option so more bright people land in engineering. 30 years ago, they didn’t have the institutional knowledge and process to develop reliable products. That has changed dramatically and they’re now as good as anyone.
Agreed. Most of the engineers I know in Silicon Valley started in India. They’re incredibly sharp.
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