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Old 06-08-2020, 09:39 AM
 
Location: SoCal
18,124 posts, read 8,590,281 times
Reputation: 14904

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Quote:
Originally Posted by augiedogie View Post
No evidence of Blue state lockdowns? NYC did start opening till today. Ca still has severe restrictions in places like LA.
They are opening soon. They have too.
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Old 06-08-2020, 11:31 AM
 
Location: Pennsylvania
16,280 posts, read 5,612,964 times
Reputation: 13075
Quote:
Originally Posted by Coloradomom22 View Post
I agree. It's hard to buy into the "stay home until we get a vaccine" when thousands of maskless rioters and looters are standing shoulder to shoulder and governors look the other way.
And then you get an incompetent moron like Bill DeBlasio trying to tell you that 400 years of racism means protesting is ok, even if you can't return to normal every day activities.
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Old 06-08-2020, 01:08 PM
 
Location: Chicago area
15,900 posts, read 8,774,294 times
Reputation: 57460
The C.B.O. is predicting that it will take almost a decade to recover from the pandemic shut downs and continuing weakness in global manufacturing. The last shipment of Remdezivir just went out today and there is going to be a disruption in manufacturing a new batch. There is only enough to treat 78.000 of the 300,000 who qualify for the drug. Supply will be limited through the end of the year.

Covid-19 is going to be part of our lives for quite awhile. It's going to have a negative impact on the economy for as long as it is around. Given the stubborn stupid idiot factor in this country, we can expect to see spikes on and off in all states. People who refuse to follow the guidelines are going to keep spreading it. It's inevitable. We are our own worst enemies. We deserve what we get.
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Old 06-08-2020, 07:10 PM
 
13,276 posts, read 12,345,975 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ThinkingOutsideTheBox View Post
Covid 19 rises, peaks and seems to be on a slow decline (at least in terms of death rates) but now the riots ravaging those cities that have been shut down for months. The recession doesn't look as strong as expected for the circumstances given the unemployment rate decreasing rather than increasing in May. But I imagine things won't return to normal until either we a) get a vaccine or b) herd immunity) and can do away with all those social distancing requirements and masks in public. When do you think that will be? Will we go into a boom similar to the one that dominated most of the 2010s or will it be very stagnant?

Pulitzer Prize winning author, Laurie Garrett author of "The Coming Plague" which almost prophesied the Coronavirus and "Betrayal of Trust: The Collapse of Global Public Health" says 3 years from now to return to normal in a best case scenario and 10 years in a worst case.



https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/08/us/li...ett/index.html
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Old 06-10-2020, 09:37 AM
 
Location: Colorado
3,580 posts, read 2,983,325 times
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I'd say sometime 2021 for the stock market to get back to 2019 levels. The stock market is also a leading indicator.

The issue is that some things, say oil demand may have a much bigger lag than the overall housing market or internet usage... Things are not going to be in the same ratios as they were before, so it's going to be hard to say 'it's recovered today!' But I think it's clear by this point there is not another 2009 we have to deal with, it's less severe than that. Case in point, look at the personal savings number. That is a huge cushion to the average american and that money will be spent here at some point, though it may not be spent on the same products.
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Old 06-13-2020, 07:47 PM
 
Location: Myrtle Creek, Oregon
14,331 posts, read 13,895,434 times
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We won't even have an idea of how bad it's going to get for at least another 6 months. I think we have to accept that there will be no national Covid-19 response until sometime next year at the earliest. Cities and states will be in dire straits as their tax revenues evaporate. The World Bank is projecting a 5% drop in world productivity, and the CBO is projecting a 5.6% drop in US GDP by the end of the year. GDP dropped a little over 1% in 2008 and Americans thought the world was ending. This time it really will.

If the record of veterinary coronavirus vaccines are any indication, any vaccine will offer only partial immunity, and will have to be boostered every 3 to 6 months. Think 25% effective.

Senior citizens will have to withdraw from public life. Younger people will have to step up to run society, or let it fall apart.

The human race has a new major disease. Think catching a cold, with the chance that catching a cold will kill you or leave you crippled for months, if not life. The death rate is only a small fraction of the casualty rate. The percentage of disabled Americans will explode.

The past is gone, and will never return. Better we spend our time figuring out how to deal with the future.
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Old 06-14-2020, 09:40 PM
 
Location: Tennessee
27,594 posts, read 20,591,792 times
Reputation: 33426
On a personal basis, I'm mostly back to normal. I'm dining out. I'm going to the gym. I go to bars. I've traveled seven hours away to a tourist destination on Memorial Day weekend.

I'm 34 with no health issues. I haven't been around in large indoor crowds and am not planning on it, but would not turn down a good indoor concert with socially distanced seating for a good act. One of the regional biker bars is starting outdoor concerts back up again around the Fourth of July. I plan on going to my local waterpark when it reopens after June 25.

I like big concerts, sporting events, etc. I'm basically calling the rest of the year a wash on that front.
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Old 06-14-2020, 10:04 PM
 
Location: Tennessee
27,594 posts, read 20,591,792 times
Reputation: 33426
Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Caldwell View Post
We won't even have an idea of how bad it's going to get for at least another 6 months. I think we have to accept that there will be no national Covid-19 response until sometime next year at the earliest. Cities and states will be in dire straits as their tax revenues evaporate. The World Bank is projecting a 5% drop in world productivity, and the CBO is projecting a 5.6% drop in US GDP by the end of the year. GDP dropped a little over 1% in 2008 and Americans thought the world was ending. This time it really will.

If the record of veterinary coronavirus vaccines are any indication, any vaccine will offer only partial immunity, and will have to be boostered every 3 to 6 months. Think 25% effective.

Senior citizens will have to withdraw from public life. Younger people will have to step up to run society, or let it fall apart.

The human race has a new major disease. Think catching a cold, with the chance that catching a cold will kill you or leave you crippled for months, if not life. The death rate is only a small fraction of the casualty rate. The percentage of disabled Americans will explode.

The past is gone, and will never return. Better we spend our time figuring out how to deal with the future.
I don't see this happening at all.

Humanity has come through worse pandemics. 1918 Spanish Flu. Black Death in Europe. There have been far, far more disruptive events in human history than COVID-19.

Things will change for a bit, but the worst predictions, like bars being eliminated forever, won't happen. Social alcohol drinking is a basic behavior. It'll survive in some form or fashion. Spectator sports might not be possible this year or even next on a mass scale, but I doubt this is going to doom the SEC or NFL. There's still a tremendous appetite for sports.

I doubt many people, even seniors, are going to withdraw indefinitely. My grandmother is in her mid-80s. She went back to church today for the first time. That is important to her. She has had it with the "stay at home" stuff. She's taking sensible precautions, but she is of the mindset that she wants to live whatever time she has left as well as she possibly can. That's not done by cowering in the house.
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Old 06-15-2020, 12:12 AM
 
585 posts, read 198,711 times
Reputation: 1014
Quote:
Originally Posted by Serious Conversation View Post
I don't see this happening at all.

Humanity has come through worse pandemics. 1918 Spanish Flu. Black Death in Europe. There have been far, far more disruptive events in human history than COVID-19.

Things will change for a bit, but the worst predictions, like bars being eliminated forever, won't happen. Social alcohol drinking is a basic behavior. It'll survive in some form or fashion. Spectator sports might not be possible this year or even next on a mass scale, but I doubt this is going to doom the SEC or NFL. There's still a tremendous appetite for sports.

I doubt many people, even seniors, are going to withdraw indefinitely. My grandmother is in her mid-80s. She went back to church today for the first time. That is important to her. She has had it with the "stay at home" stuff. She's taking sensible precautions, but she is of the mindset that she wants to live whatever time she has left as well as she possibly can. That's not done by cowering in the house.
Agree completely. I could even see this lasting another year or two but it won't last forever.

My grandparents are your grandmothers age.
My grandma is in the hospital for a fall.
My grandfather has been extremely careful and not gone outside much.
His mom lived to be 98. He's hoping to live another 10 years or so and is willing to stay inside for the most part for 6 months or a year if he has to to avoid corona. FWIW he's in NYC.
If your grandmother is of sound mind and wants to make the choice to go to church if that's what makes her happy she should wear a mask, be extremely careful and do so. I respect that just like I respect my grandfather's choice.
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Old 06-15-2020, 04:26 AM
 
Location: Central CT, sometimes NH.
3,612 posts, read 5,386,476 times
Reputation: 3823
One of the key obstacles to the return to normal is going to be the news cycle. Even when things significantly improve, there will still be repeated coverage of single Covid events which distorts people's perception of overall safety. For example, the morning news will repeat a single event every 15 minutes during a two to three hour cycle. The same event is often covered in the evening news and repeated again the following morning until something new replaces it. Most people have difficulty separating out the repeats over time and will end up perceiving the isolated incidents as pervasive events. It will take a long time of an absence of Covid incidents in the news before many people will feel comfortable enough to resume normal behaviors.

I also feel that a federal hold harmless legislation will be necessary to protect businesses, organizations and employers from frivolous lawsuits attempting to assign liability due to alleged improper safety protocols protecting workers from contracting the virus.
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