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Old 06-05-2020, 06:11 PM
 
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Covid 19 rises, peaks and seems to be on a slow decline (at least in terms of death rates) but now the riots ravaging those cities that have been shut down for months. The recession doesn't look as strong as expected for the circumstances given the unemployment rate decreasing rather than increasing in May. But I imagine things won't return to normal until either we a) get a vaccine or b) herd immunity) and can do away with all those social distancing requirements and masks in public. When do you think that will be? Will we go into a boom similar to the one that dominated most of the 2010s or will it be very stagnant?
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Old 06-05-2020, 06:38 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ThinkingOutsideTheBox View Post
Covid 19 rises, peaks and seems to be on a slow decline (at least in terms of death rates) but now the riots ravaging those cities that have been shut down for months. The recession doesn't look as strong as expected for the circumstances given the unemployment rate decreasing rather than increasing in May. But I imagine things won't return to normal until either we a) get a vaccine or b) herd immunity) and can do away with all those social distancing requirements and masks in public. When do you think that will be? Will we go into a boom similar to the one that dominated most of the 2010s or will it be very stagnant?

I don't think that Covid-19 to going to totally go away anytime soon. So, a "return to normal" will depend mostly on whose perspective we are considering. If a person is old and with one or more serious physical conditions which make them more susceptible to the CV virus, then it may be a long time before they feel safe in going out in public.


OTOH, many younger/healthier people are ready to do so right now... and many of them are, in fact, doing so in states which allow it. I wouldn't bet any money on an effective vaccine anytime soon. We've been trying to find vaccines for the common cold with no success and vaccines for the "common flu" for decades with only limited success. So, the chances of a "Silver Bullet" vaccine for the Covid-19 flu are pretty slim, IMO. It's just something we'll have to adapt to.
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Old 06-05-2020, 06:58 PM
 
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Back to normal? Any day now, the real economy is on fire!
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Old 06-05-2020, 07:23 PM
 
Location: Willamette Valley, Oregon
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I think we will practice some form of social distancing for years to come. I am totally used to standing 6 ft away from everybody.
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Old 06-05-2020, 07:27 PM
 
Location: Heart of flyover America
844 posts, read 332,806 times
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The pre-Covid economy was the largest, most grotesque credit hyper-bubble in economic history. Covid has ripped a huge gaping hole in that bubble, so we will not be returning to the "good ol' days" of 2019 at any point in the future.
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Old 06-05-2020, 08:15 PM
 
203 posts, read 115,668 times
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People don't care about covid anymore. That news cycle passed. Now it's all about protests and blm. Those protestors are not social distancing. Restaurants are opening back up and people are not wearing masks. Stock market is near all time high. Even if cases and deaths go up, people don't care as long as they are not the ones dying. Most of society are merely sheeps that follow whatever is trending or viral. Covid is so last week.
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Old 06-05-2020, 08:50 PM
 
740 posts, read 260,398 times
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Originally Posted by ninjamyst View Post
People don't care about covid anymore. That news cycle passed. Now it's all about protests and blm. Those protestors are not social distancing. Restaurants are opening back up and people are not wearing masks. Stock market is near all time high. Even if cases and deaths go up, people don't care as long as they are not the ones dying. Most of society are merely sheeps that follow whatever is trending or viral. Covid is so last week.
most people don't give 2 ****s about blm or protesting.
It's good news bc race baiting is always makes for good news, way better than day 90 or whatever of corona coverage.

things are opening up- in some places a lot more than others. most people are concerned with going back to work, opening their businesses and concerned with the protests with regards to looting and rioting.
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Old 06-05-2020, 08:50 PM
 
1,140 posts, read 675,536 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ninjamyst View Post
People don't care about covid anymore. That news cycle passed. Now it's all about protests and blm. Those protestors are not social distancing. Restaurants are opening back up and people are not wearing masks. Stock market is near all time high. Even if cases and deaths go up, people don't care as long as they are not the ones dying. Most of society are merely sheeps that follow whatever is trending or viral. Covid is so last week.
I agree. It's hard to buy into the "stay home until we get a vaccine" when thousands of maskless rioters and looters are standing shoulder to shoulder and governors look the other way.
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Old 06-05-2020, 08:56 PM
 
Location: On a Long Island in NY
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My guess would be around early 2021 ... assuming there isn't a large second wave and that there's better treatment plans or even a vaccine.
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Old 06-05-2020, 09:07 PM
 
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My guess around 2021. The news on the vaccine front looks pretty promising, even from Fauci this week, but I'm not entirely expecting it to work completely as far as being the end of this that knocks it out. I think what will most likely happen is the virus will weaken. There seems to be some doctor's claims of this in places like Italy, but still very debatable and I'm a little skeptical of those claims, although the hospitalization rate going down may be indicative of it in general. If it does in fact weaken in most places, and doesn't come back worse, I think social distancing will be decreased and likely end at some point without a vaccine. Possibly later in 2021, though if a vaccine works and is distributed maybe sooner than that even.

Some treatments like the antibody plasma transfusions seem to be working very well, so there are better treatments than there were a few months ago, even if there hasn't been a 100% workable treatment yet.

Practically nobody wants to live like this forever, so I think most people will be glad to see it go and get back to normal again. Which means the economy will come back stronger, since consumer interest hasn't gone away like some predicted.

If there are not a high rate of increase in hospitalizations and deaths after these protests, it may even be sooner, because that would be an indication that it's relatively safe even now to let things down a bit. But I'd be wary of another wave in the fall, just like 1918 flu.
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