U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Happy Independence Day!
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Economics
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 06-09-2020, 08:27 PM
 
Location: We_tside PNW (Columbia Gorge) / CO / SA TX / Thailand
25,217 posts, read 43,010,343 times
Reputation: 28000

Advertisements

This is America, you will never see full employment. We have plenty of lucrative safeguards. I considered that in the grocery line last night. Monstrously huge people buying stuff I have never been able to afford, and always knew was harmful to consume.... All on their federal EBT cards. You don't get EBT if you are employed! These people would starve. .

Full employment means higher wages. That can't happen if the fed is targeting <3% inflation.

There are millions unemployed or under employed (by choice).

Spend 6 months volunteering at homeless shelter, battered women's shelter, prison... You will get a much more aligned perspective on the potential of full employment.

Likely 30% of Corporate America is fluff, 80% of career politicians are fluff, but <5% of small business employment is fluff.

When corporate America gets Q3&4 numbers and when municipalities get their heads blown out of the sand (FY 2021 budget planning based on drastic reductions of FY 2020 income....). Unemployment numbers will not be pretty, and the market will have priced all that in a few months before reality hits.

So... Good thing USA doesn't ever plan to get to full employment. Be prepared to shop with your new EBT card!
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 06-09-2020, 10:33 PM
 
2,168 posts, read 866,287 times
Reputation: 2163
Quote:
Originally Posted by StealthRabbit View Post
This is America, you will never see full employment. We have plenty of lucrative safeguards. I considered that in the grocery line last night. Monstrously huge people buying stuff I have never been able to afford, and always knew was harmful to consume.... All on their federal EBT cards. You don't get EBT if you are employed! These people would starve. .

Full employment means higher wages. That can't happen if the fed is targeting <3% inflation.

There are millions unemployed or under employed (by choice).

Spend 6 months volunteering at homeless shelter, battered women's shelter, prison... You will get a much more aligned perspective on the potential of full employment.

Likely 30% of Corporate America is fluff, 80% of career politicians are fluff, but <5% of small business employment is fluff.

When corporate America gets Q3&4 numbers and when municipalities get their heads blown out of the sand (FY 2021 budget planning based on drastic reductions of FY 2020 income....). Unemployment numbers will not be pretty, and the market will have priced all that in a few months before reality hits.

So... Good thing USA doesn't ever plan to get to full employment. Be prepared to shop with your new EBT card!
There are millions of people who are employed and on food stamps. I read a few tears ago that around sixty percent if those on food stamps were employed. Many Walmart workers, for instance, qualify for and receive food stamps
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-10-2020, 07:01 AM
 
Location: We_tside PNW (Columbia Gorge) / CO / SA TX / Thailand
25,217 posts, read 43,010,343 times
Reputation: 28000
That's scary sad...(3 tests to Qualify)

Income
Assets
Size of household

https://eligibility.com/food-stamps
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-10-2020, 08:07 AM
 
1,962 posts, read 1,071,441 times
Reputation: 2810
You can be "monstrously huge", as you put it, and be dirt poor. Pasta is cheaper than steak.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-10-2020, 09:26 AM
 
Location: Vallejo
15,381 posts, read 17,362,489 times
Reputation: 13824
Quote:
Originally Posted by redguard57 View Post
Stock markets are near or at all-time highs despite labor force participation rate at an 50 year low and unemployment at a 70 year high.

So my question is, is it necessary at all to re-employ the 35 million unemployed? It does not seem like their jobs matter and we can do fine without them.
How long do you think we can keep operating a $4T deficit? Eventually it just becomes Weimar Marks and you go all Venezuela. Do we need to employ all 35 million? No. We could even go Venezuela, but eventually people lose faith in the fiat currency. Might take a few years of just printing on toilet paper but eventually it happens.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-10-2020, 09:29 AM
 
Location: Colorado
3,580 posts, read 2,984,170 times
Reputation: 2817
Quote:
Originally Posted by Therblig View Post
So, which is it?
There's diminishing returns. If you have 15-20% unemployment, it's absolutely critical to get that down because there's lots of good workers who are spinning their wheels AND needing support from the system. From 4 to 3%, you begin to scrape the bottom of available and good workers.

The question mark is what exactly is full employment? Historically, the benchmark was around 5%, but it's been under that for several years now, without the inflation that was predicted. It's also a moving target because it depends on who decides they are part of the labor force, if a person decides they are out of the labor force, they aren't counted. Hence why the rate of jobs kept going up and up and unemployment remained constant in the last several years because more people kept jumping in and deciding they were going to be part of the labor force.

All that says that there isn't really a metric of we need to hit THIS number of employment. But if the rate is high, it indicates problems that do need to be solved. From the recent corona thing, it's pretty clear the numbers just aren't reliable and there isn't a long term trend yet.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-10-2020, 09:52 AM
 
1,989 posts, read 510,658 times
Reputation: 3201
Quote:
Originally Posted by Phil P View Post
There's diminishing returns. If you have 15-20% unemployment, it's absolutely critical to get that down because there's lots of good workers who are spinning their wheels AND needing support from the system. From 4 to 3%, you begin to scrape the bottom of available and good workers.
I wouldn't disagree; that's pretty basic theory if you don't subscribe to the notion of 100% employment. (Which in itself is still fractional employment by not counting those not in the job market at all.)

During one of the 3% eras a few years back, when I had dealt with the fourth or fifth walking brain case of the day in some counter or service position, I climbed up on a soapbox (unusual, I know) and declaimed that what this country needed was a six percent unemployment rate and a code duello.

By traditional metrics, a nominal unemployment rate of about 5-6% seems to be ideal. Almost everyone who wants to work is; those who need to be dragged or aren't worth employing stay home. When they start scraping the bottom of the barrel, you get that time of complete morons trying to take a simple order, ring out three items or put two bags of mulch in your car. And failing.

All of which will be quaint historical metrics quite soon, though. Whatever the official numbers (which very carefully and meticulously look at what are increasingly the wrong things), I think real unemployment has crossed a line it is unlikely to ever recross.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-10-2020, 10:00 AM
 
Location: We_tside PNW (Columbia Gorge) / CO / SA TX / Thailand
25,217 posts, read 43,010,343 times
Reputation: 28000
Quote:
Originally Posted by Phil P View Post
There's diminishing returns. If you have 15-20% unemployment, it's absolutely critical to get that down because there's lots of good workers who are spinning their wheels AND needing support from the system. From 4 to 3%, you begin to scrape the bottom of available and good workers.

....
All that says that there isn't really a metric of we need to hit THIS number of employment. But if the rate is high, it indicates problems that do need to be solved. From the recent corona thing, it's pretty clear the numbers just aren't reliable and there isn't a long term trend yet.
Yes...
1) we are currently in a 'blip' (there will not be dependable numbers or accurate speculation.) too much in flux
2) 5-7% is about correct, as studies have shown 7% is that 'sweet spot' where the 'dregs of the bottom' are the only ones still seeking employment.

On the other side... RIF / Voluntary severance / downsizing shows the most likely to exit are your BEST workers (usually top 7-10%)

One would be very naive to think there was 50% truth to the number reported last week.

That too is scary (un-informed electorate) YIKES! More to soon be 'unemployed' .

Quote:
I think "real" unemployment has crossed a line it is unlikely to ever recross.
true,
1) We do not KNOW what is 'real' (and lots of people in high places don't want us to know...for last 4+ administrations)
2) Improbable the 'glory days' (which were fake) are going to return in the same way, tho may be 'masked' by yet another facade.
3) It is incredible the positive economic times we (USA) has enjoyed in the last 40 yrs.
4) Hope we can keep it up during my lifetime (short), but I don't expect my kids to enjoy such prolonged wealth building opportunities. (within the legal level).
5) America is truly at a crossroads, we may (likely) miss the correct turn to make positive WW economic advancements in the future.
6) I'm not sure we (USA) know the direction to turn. (I feel it is obvious, but my thoughts are not shared, especially in my state where 3 counties control the vote of 39 aggregate counties). Very few of my votes / issues have passed in the last 37 yrs.

Last edited by StealthRabbit; 06-10-2020 at 10:22 AM..
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-10-2020, 10:02 AM
 
1,989 posts, read 510,658 times
Reputation: 3201
Quote:
Originally Posted by StealthRabbit View Post
YOne would be very naive to think there was 50% truth to the number reported last week.
And pointlessly agitating to think it was due to anything but the slow, staid system being overwhelmed. For decades they've carefully counted stray sheep; in April they got run over by a stampede.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-10-2020, 11:06 AM
 
1,989 posts, read 510,658 times
Reputation: 3201
Quote:
Originally Posted by StealthRabbit View Post
1) We do not KNOW what is 'real' (and lots of people in high places don't want us to know...for last 4+ administrations)
I don't think Big Bruddah/concealing reality is at the heart of it. Maybe in that the current system and methods are kept in place, but I think BLM and others strive to create useful data and analysis. The problem is the "dinosaur counter" from Jurassic Park; they keep carefully using old tools, metrics and methods to generate results consistent and comparable to historical ones. Even though things like partial employment and double employment and gig/pickup work are supposed to be included, the whole model still revolves around a very traditional job format with everything else pasted in.

Again, I'd attribute this to inertia, an aint-broke attitude and conservative (nonpolitical) thinking more than whatever part might be the administration looking the other way.

The virus crisis is likely to drive complete overhaul of the notion of unemployment and how it's measured and reported.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply

Quick Reply
Message:


Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Economics
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2020, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Contact Us - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 - Top