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Old 06-09-2020, 05:38 PM
 
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BLS admitted large errors in the unemployment rate, saying the real numbers are much higher -- but won't revise the numbers.

A private analyst quoted in the article linked below said, “[BLS] looks incompetent or political." Was this classification error an innocent mistake by bumbling bureaucrats or did word come down from the White House to cook the books?


There’s A Glaring, Misleading Error In The May Jobs Report: U.S. May Be At 20% Unemployment (Forbes)

https://twitter.com/HedgeyeFIG/statu...93370501468160

Last edited by Elliott_CA; 06-09-2020 at 05:47 PM..
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Old 06-09-2020, 05:44 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Elliott_CA View Post
BLS admitted large errors in the unemployment rate, saying the real numbers are much higher -- but won't revise the numbers.
It's hard to fault a by-the-numbers agency for not counting every rock in an avalanche in realtime.

But then, some of us think the numbers have been disconnected from real employment levels for a while.
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Old 06-09-2020, 05:48 PM
 
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It took most of us here in nyc two months just to get our claims processed..the numbers are well behind
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Old 06-09-2020, 06:02 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Therblig View Post
It's hard to fault a by-the-numbers agency for not counting every rock in an avalanche in realtime.

But then, some of us think the numbers have been disconnected from real employment levels for a while.

Intuitively I thought the 13.3% number for May seemed low. Even the revised 20% for April seems low because during the lockdown all you saw were closed and boarded up businesses, except for supermarkets and big box hardware chains. Did 4 out of 5 working people really keep working by telecommuting? I don't know.
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Old 06-09-2020, 06:15 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Elliott_CA View Post
Intuitively I thought the 13.3% number for May seemed low. Even the revised 20% for April seems low because during the lockdown all you saw were closed and boarded up businesses, except for supermarkets and big box hardware chains. Did 4 out of 5 working people really keep working by telecommuting? I don't know.
It may be a long time before we know, and maybe never without a large sampling error. Like many things, the categories and situations are fluid and confusing; as you say, did someone who kept tabs on what they could of business from home "work"? Full time? While they mowed neighbors' lawns for grocery money?

If nothing else, this might get BLS and others to overhaul the categories, the measurement methods and the stats to meaningfully reflect "employment" in an age when it's no longer 8 to 5 at the Ford plant.
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Old 06-09-2020, 06:54 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles
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Yeah, a Brooking's economist had a brief piece on this yesterday. Lots of noise in the numbers.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgo...y-drop-in-may/

Though Beacon Economics (a private forecasting firm) is already saying we are in recovery mode. Talk about whiplash.
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Old 06-09-2020, 06:58 PM
 
Location: SoCal
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Don’t get too excited, it’s in the report, not news here. Come on go outside and play.
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Old 06-09-2020, 07:04 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Astral_Weeks View Post
Though Beacon Economics (a private forecasting firm) is already saying we are in recovery mode. Talk about whiplash.
I think it's entirely possible we could be leveled out or even on a slight recovery slope... but that's a long, long ways from "recovery."

What seemed to throw even the most seasoned pundits was:
  • The suddenness of the crisis onset. Being nuked by Russia couldn't have hit more from the blue.
  • The scope of the crisis: not localized in any one state, region, industry, sector or even country, but everywhere, more or less in the blink of an eye.
  • That the massive, unprecedented job loss was not due to any factor formerly encountered (in modern times, at least).
  • And that the job situation can/could/probably will be reversed almost as fast, since the employers and jobs didn't go anywhere, just got suspended.

— and most confusingly for the poor dears, this did not happen because of any economic factor at all. It wasn't caused by recession or depression or market failure or currency collapse or competition or investments or interest rates, so even the most broad-minded econ thinkertypes were flummoxed as to how to interpret it.

I've said it before: some percentage of predictors will prove absolutely correct... but we have no idea which ones they are, and really, neither do they. So worshiping the ones who guessed right will be pretty silly... but will still be done, anyway.

The planet rolled the dice on us in a game we weren't even aware we were playing. Trying to sort out the rules while the dice are still rolling is pretty useless. But it's looking like lucky seven from this early perspective.
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Old 06-09-2020, 08:51 PM
 
Location: Baltimore, MD
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BLS admitted the misclassification when it initially released both the April and May unemployment reports. The media, for whatever reason, failed to report it. I read both the March and April reports the mornings they were released and at the bottom of each Summary was a large box that described the misclassification error. Furthermore, BLS provided a link to a question and answer page that detailed the error. BLS stated it intended to provide further training to the Census employees that were responsible for interviewing and correctly coding the responses.

This would have been common knowledge had the news media and the "financial experts" mentioned it in their reports. I do not know whether this failure to fully report was intentional or not.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

www.bls.gov/cps/employment-situation-covid19-faq-may-2020.pdf


Edited to Add: It IS perplexing that the "warning" type notice was not placed above the summary, rather than below. That could be viewed by some as suspicious.


Last edited by lenora; 06-09-2020 at 09:03 PM..
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Old 06-10-2020, 08:54 AM
 
Location: New York Area
19,763 posts, read 7,756,055 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Elliott_CA View Post
BLS admitted large errors in the unemployment rate, saying the real numbers are much higher -- but won't revise the numbers.

A private analyst quoted in the article linked below said, “[BLS] looks incompetent or political." Was this classification error an innocent mistake by bumbling bureaucrats or did word come down from the White House to cook the books?


There’s A Glaring, Misleading Error In The May Jobs Report: U.S. May Be At 20% Unemployment (Forbes)
The trend is still a good one.
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