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Old 06-16-2020, 05:33 PM
 
Location: Heart of flyover America
643 posts, read 255,042 times
Reputation: 1222

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Quote:
Originally Posted by EDS_ View Post
I. Literally no one with a functioning brain stem believes aggregated prices are the same now as 5, 10 or 20 years ago. 1 year ago might be in question. We'll know a lot more on June 20.

II. If you are so confident that the .gov (day to day functionaries, The BLS, The Fed., NBER, Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid and lots more) + every econ. professor and grad student in the country, bankers, private economists and more are all in on this decades long con you should prove it and become a millionaire and celebrity overnight.

But you can't. A. because you don't have any of the requisite skills B. there is no long con.
Just look at the 'Big Mac' index.

In 1973, a Big Macs cost 65 cents.


Now a big mac costs an average of $5.67 in the US:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...for-a-big-mac/

That's a much higher rate than the fraudulent "2%" they tell us. And this is despite the swapping of more expensive ingredients with cheaper ones and more efficient production methods.

Ask anyone who pays rent if there's "no inflation." In the majority of areas, rent is increasing by more than 2% every year. And some by more than 30%.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bus...a-2019-7%3famp

Even in dilapidated rust belt cities, where rent should be decreasing, rent is still going up.

Healthcare costs are increasing considerably more than 2% per year: https://www.kff.org/report-section/e...lth-insurance/

Check out the price of copper: a 300% increase in the last 50 years.
https://www.macrotrends.net/1476/cop...cal-chart-data

Again, this is despite much more efficient production methods.


Some anecdotal evidence: my ISP increased their prices by 20% over the past 2 years.

So clearly, the government isn't exactly being completely honest with their inflation stats. Which is understandable- they have every motivation to understate the true rate of price increases as much as possible.

Last edited by Taggerung; 06-16-2020 at 06:21 PM..
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Old 06-16-2020, 09:37 PM
 
Location: Washington Park, Denver
8,082 posts, read 7,505,926 times
Reputation: 9105
Quote:
Originally Posted by heart84 View Post
I was simply stating an observation of what I was experiencing on a day-to day basis. Many items that I regularly purchase were increasing in price last year. I am not sure why this is so controversial or unbelievable. I am not just making it up out of thin air lol. It is really strange because the people who are in such disbelief over this do not even do their own grocery shopping.
I completely believe you. I just don’t think a single observation is the basis for any mean full analysis.
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Old 06-17-2020, 07:23 AM
 
8,697 posts, read 2,418,954 times
Reputation: 5553
Quote:
Originally Posted by EDS_ View Post
It amazes me when people, not just you, think they see things The Fed. does not see or understand.

Before the 2008 crash many like myself saw the real estate bubble, liar loans etc and worried it could cause an economic crash or at the very least a real estate crash. And then we all watched the economic events unfold. Bernanke kept saying everything was fine until it was way too obvious that it was not.
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Old 06-17-2020, 07:33 AM
 
Location: Washington Park, Denver
8,082 posts, read 7,505,926 times
Reputation: 9105
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oklazona Bound View Post
Before the 2008 crash many like myself saw the real estate bubble, liar loans etc and worried it could cause an economic crash or at the very least a real estate crash. And then we all watched the economic events unfold. Bernanke kept saying everything was fine until it was way too obvious that it was not.
And what should The Fed have done differently in 2007?
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Old 06-17-2020, 07:56 AM
 
2,600 posts, read 990,345 times
Reputation: 6538
Quote:
Originally Posted by SkyDog77 View Post
And what should The Fed have done differently in 2007?
The Fed (along with other CBs around the world) was seduced into the belief that assets have essential, intrinsic value and they can be securitized, rated, bundled, and sold just like real-world commodities. They allowed the banks to create a complex web of insurers and shadow-banks to game this new found “wealth”. Accountants were told to shut up and play along with the game — or else.

What is the value of a vacant moldy house in Florida or a CNC machine tool in a dark shuttered factory? In many cases less than zero, but the Fed allowed these “assets” to be counted and sold as though they had full value.
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Old 06-17-2020, 08:41 AM
 
9,610 posts, read 10,231,140 times
Reputation: 8396
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oklazona Bound View Post
Before the 2008 crash many like myself saw the real estate bubble, liar loans etc and worried it could cause an economic crash or at the very least a real estate crash. And then we all watched the economic events unfold. Bernanke kept saying everything was fine until it was way too obvious that it was not.
I made note of that above. Ben's problem was several inflation hawks on the FOMC leading up to the bust refused to do the things necessary to increase the money supply. Ben's only option at that point was to play cheerleader. I don't want to sound like Paul Krugman but the inflation hawks have been roughly 100% wrong since about 1985.


Lots of people saw a housing bust coming. Very few anticipated how bad it would be.
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Old 06-17-2020, 08:43 AM
 
9,610 posts, read 10,231,140 times
Reputation: 8396
Quote:
Originally Posted by TimAZ View Post
The Fed (along with other CBs around the world) was seduced into the belief that assets have essential, intrinsic value and they can be securitized, rated, bundled, and sold just like real-world commodities. They allowed the banks to create a complex web of insurers and shadow-banks to game this new found “wealth”. Accountants were told to shut up and play along with the game — or else.

What is the value of a vacant moldy house in Florida or a CNC machine tool in a dark shuttered factory? In many cases less than zero, but the Fed allowed these “assets” to be counted and sold as though they had full value.
The Fed. had zero power to stop any of that.
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Old 06-17-2020, 08:43 AM
 
8,697 posts, read 2,418,954 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SkyDog77 View Post
And what should The Fed have done differently in 2007?

Perhaps tell the truth. That would be a start.
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Old 06-17-2020, 08:55 AM
 
8,697 posts, read 2,418,954 times
Reputation: 5553
Quote:
Originally Posted by EDS_ View Post
I made note of that above. Ben's problem was several inflation hawks on the FOMC leading up to the bust refused to do the things necessary to increase the money supply. Ben's only option at that point was to play cheerleader. I don't want to sound like Paul Krugman but the inflation hawks have been roughly 100% wrong since about 1985.

Good point. But that does not mean that inflation is gone forever. We have never pumped this much money into the economy so quickly. We are in uncharted territory. The fed and the treasury department are looking at these actions as 100% necessary and I am sure they will figure how to deal with inflation or whatever else might happen when and if it happens. Whether they are successful when and if it comes up is another thing.

Quote:
Originally Posted by EDS_ View Post
Lots of people saw a housing bust coming. Very few anticipated how bad it would be.
Bernanke had access to data that the average person did not or was not aware of. So the fed should have had more clarity on what was going on then lots of people. I was flipping houses up to mid 2007 when things were changing in the housing market. But true I had no idea that it would get as bad as it did.
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Old 06-17-2020, 10:06 AM
 
2,600 posts, read 990,345 times
Reputation: 6538
Quote:
Originally Posted by EDS_ View Post
I made note of that above. Ben's problem was several inflation hawks on the FOMC leading up to the bust refused to do the things necessary to increase the money supply. Ben's only option at that point was to play cheerleader. I don't want to sound like Paul Krugman but the inflation hawks have been roughly 100% wrong since about 1985.


Lots of people saw a housing bust coming. Very few anticipated how bad it would be.
The Fed under Bernanke (with help from Treasury Sec Skeletor) bailed out the TBTF banks and their “insurance” agents — the very people that created the asset fiasco. Many on the FOMC and in Congress thought this was wrong, but we know who prevailed. They “saved” the world and all we taxpayers got was a lousy tee shirt with a $10T promissory note printed on the back.
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