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Old Today, 12:35 AM
 
1,677 posts, read 389,036 times
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Which of these economists had an inkling the Great Recession in 2008 was going to happen? I'll listen to what he or she has to say about the economic future. Otherwise, pass.
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Old Today, 01:35 AM
 
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Originally Posted by mathlete View Post
Which of these economists had an inkling the Great Recession in 2008 was going to happen? I'll listen to what he or she has to say about the economic future. Otherwise, pass.
not even then , peter schiff has been horrible at predicting since 2008 ....
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Old Today, 08:02 AM
 
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Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
not even then , peter schiff has been horrible at predicting since 2008 ....
Schiff isn't an economist - no econ. degrees of any kind. There is zero chance he'd have a voice at the table with Chicago's group.

And I'd agree he's a charlatan, on multiple levels.
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Old Today, 02:42 PM
 
Location: Saint Paul
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I have noticed lots and lots of help-wanted signs in the last few days. Companies that wanted to hire six months ago are still looking for more qualified people.
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Old Today, 03:48 PM
 
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Originally Posted by J Baustian View Post
I have noticed lots and lots of help-wanted signs in the last few days. Companies that wanted to hire six months ago are still looking for more qualified people.
Locally, our anecdote is all of the construction trades are slammed with work. It's hand-to-hand combat just to get one to show up & look & bid, and even then they are booked well into the future. A local custom furniture manufacturing company with ~ 60 employees says they are all working 12 hour days.

At the same time, Las Vegas' unemployment rate peaked at 34% in April but declined to 29% in May. We have a long way to go.
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Old Today, 05:04 PM
 
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The Atlanta FRB runs a model that attempts to measure real-time economic activity using over 200 inputs from various activities around the country. Their model says economic transactions were down ~ 35% in mid May and then declined an additional 10% to where we are today at -45% of the longer term average. This is roughly two months of serious damage to the world’s largest consumer economy and their data show no rapid rebound.
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Old Today, 07:48 PM
 
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Here in the manufacturing trenches in Asia I'm seeing economic activity dropping off a cliff in a way that makes the Great Recession in 2008 look like a blip. Companies have been running off of fumes for the past few months which "masked" the economic effects of the pandemic but life is about to get very interesting.
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Old Today, 08:24 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Therblig View Post
True, but even more so, we have simply never had a crisis like this in modern times. It's not a war, or a recession/depression, or an inflationary cycle, or a market collapse, or... pretty much anything any living economist has any experience with and can use to make meaningful comparisons.

It's like trying to predict the next moves in a chess game after some mean widdle kid just kicked the whole board thirty feet in the air.

And I'll further maintain that much of what has happened (the almost inexplicable market recovery/gains, for example) are due more to something like systemic shell-shock and inertia than any considered, rational acts. Because on top of it all... we are just now in the fourth month of this event. The sheer speed and compressed scale, coupled with the instant global impact, are, to put it mildly, confusing things.
A pandemic and a virus of this nature has no political agenda, no racist agenda, no human weakness—
Only its biological genetic destiny to replicate
So the idea that humans with their manifold weaknesses and lack of ability to work in cooperation with disparate groups to achieve one united goal of suppressing this virus is really laughable
Look at the world at this moment
The country that should have done the best has failed miserably in many states and their futures are growing more desperate because of political inhibitions—not science or physical capability (although that is soon going to be more than their medical resources can cope with)...
Even states where cases are low are simply because of population dynamics—let that change like Montana getting more of their Eastern visitors in the summer and dynamics can change overnight

The Black Death eradicated entire towns, forced social classes to retrench and adapt, created some new steps for science, but basically couldn’t be controlled by anything man tried
And CoVid while I hate and fear it has become a veritable master at self-promulgation...
We may never conquer it if we can’t invent a vaccine that allows a long immunity period...
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