Quote:
Originally Posted by Wartrace
It would be very difficult to administer a program like that. If a lessor paying job is all that's available so be it; if the taxpayers start subsidizing wages with a "bonus" what incentive do business owners have paying market wages?
Back in 2009 all the federal government (aka taxpayers) did was extend state unemployment benefits for two years. I expect the same this time. There were no provisions for supplementary income for the unemployed. Why should it be different now?
It is going to be a long journey back to where we we were in 2019.
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There may be additional stimulus targeted toward businesses, but I think we're done on any additional stimulus geared toward individuals unless Congressional Republicans deem more relief in their best electoral interests. If the Democrats take the Presidency and both houses of Congress, we'll likely see more action, but that will be late winter before we see anything.
There's going to be a huge wave of evictions in late summer/early fall, and foreclosures in the coming months beyond that. The only thing keeping a lot of people in their homes and fed right now is the $600/week supplemental. Once this goes, you're going to have real American carnage.
I work for a very large enterprise. We were in a fairly aggressive hiring pattern before COVID in my division. All of that was put on hold due to COVID, and a fair number of people were furloughed. Some were brought back, but I anticipate that a lot of these furloughs are going to end up as permanent layoffs.
There have always been few professional employers hiring in my field. That's basically dried up to zero now. Sure, you could probably get a job at Target or a restaurant, but that's a far cry from a $50k+ IT job.
Out of my family who are in the labor force, it goes like this.
1) Uncle 1 - business owner. Business is about half of what it was. Most of his guys are half time or less. His income is likely to be halved this year, but he is 64 and a multimillionaire, so he'll be fine.
2) Dad - mechanic at a pharmaceutical plant. No income disruption.
4) Aunt 1 - career job moved from small town TN to Charlotte, took dramatic income decline before COVID. Still working.
5) Uncle 2 - works for uncle 1, dramatic income decline.
6) Aunt 2 - business owner. Unlikely to reopen - her customers are closed indefinitely or out of business. On unemployment.
7) Aunt 3 - works for aunt 2, unemployed.
8) Cousin 1 - mental health tech at hospital, furloughed. Has a lot of health issues and will likely end up unemployed.
9) Cousin 2 - working at a factory, no income disruption as far as I know.
10) Cousin 3 - daughter of aunt 2, works for her. Unemployed.
11) Cousin 4 - still working HR job at a small company.
12) Cousin 5 - works for aunt 2, nephew. Unemployed and leaving town. Has some small alternate income streams.
13) Cousins 6/7 - worked at two different retail stores in the small mall. Unemployed.
Out of these fifteen people, including myself, only five of us (me, one aunt, two of my cousins, dad) are in the same shape we were at the first of the year. There is a bit of weirdness with the two of the family members employing some of the others, but I don't think these numbers are all that unusual among large families. People are lining up across the country with similar numbers.
Out of the people 25 or younger, only one is working. All were working at the start of the year.
I graduated in 2010 and should have graduated in 2008. It wasn't anywhere nearly this severe. Even so, the safety net back then (99 weeks of UI comes to mind) was far better than what we have now.
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