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You are quite welcome, and thank you as well. I much prefer a civil discourse to lobbing cliche attacks and snide comments about political stupidity at one another.
You are right, it is too early to determine winners and losers. More accurately perhaps, big losers and not so big losers. Things can and will change, but I am basing my opinions on current trend lines.
I view the US as a relative loser at the moment because it has one of the higher death rates per million (agreed, not the highest), but the infection rate is increasing dramatically. The European countries have the infection rates under control at the moment. Adding to this, we have a federal government that is leaving the battle to the states, and no uniformity of response among the states. That is a recipe for uncontrolled spread.
So, we have one of the highest death rates, and uncontrolled spread. Other countries generally have lower rates, and controlled spread. It seems logical that our death rates are only going to climb, while other countries are less likely to do so
I don’t blame China for this. It only takes one person to spread the virus, and they responded quickly by locking down cities in a way we have never contemplated. Small infections resulted in widespread lockdowns. One asymptomatic person leaving China can spread it, and if we had locked down as thoroughly as them, we could have stopped it too. That worked for South Korea, Taiwan, New Zealand and others.
Consider the fact that we know we have widespread community transmission, and we are still not restricting people from leaving the country. If we aren’t doing it know with over 3 million people across the country testing positive, can we seriously blame China when they had only 80,000 people in one city?
Reports were that over 450,000 people flew from China to the U.S. in the ~January 2020 timeframe, and more than that from Europe. Yes, China was definitely the Bad Guy here by under-reporting incidents to the WHO, and discounting transmissibility data, all the while locking down its own cities. It is still not settled science as to whether it came from a "wet market", or the Wuhan Lab where they were studying viruses transmitted from bats - it would have been more of a coincidence if it DIDN"T escape from that lab.
I didn't attach a link, but it's a very easy thing to Google, it was widely reported by reputable sources, let me know if you have trouble finding it.
There is an article today stating that because immunity appears to be unlikely long term from previously having c19, then a vaccine is also unlikely to be successful. I wonder if the chatter that a vaccine might happen by early 2021 is just to pacify the masses.
With coronavirus antibodies fading fast, vaccine hopes fade, too
Disturbing new revelations that permanent immunity to the coronavirus may not be possible have jeopardized vaccine development and reinforced a decision by scientists at UCSF and affiliated laboratories to focus exclusively on treatments.
Last edited by Oklazona Bound; 07-17-2020 at 07:55 PM..
Doctors and scientists are now saying they believe Coronavirus will always be with us. People are starting to understand this virus is NOT like H1N1 and cold viruses. In serious cases it wrecks nearly all systems in the body and often leaves lasting damage.
Trying to operate an economy in the face of such a lethal virus, I think is going to necessitate these changes: brick and mortar buying is going to disappear except for the most necessary products like groceries and drugs. Online buying will explode. 95% of our purchases will have to be done online. Big growth areas will include delivery services like UPS and InstaCart for delivering all these goods. Restaurants, nail salons, coffee houses, gyms, movie theaters and other such "pleasure" establishments will have to shut down. Owners need to train for new occupations. Office workers will have to tele-commute. Buildings will be boarded up. Gasoline use will plummet as people spend their leisure time at home. The governments will have to institute a VAT for revenue like Europe already does.
These are just a few of a MANY changes I think are coming to our way of life. Anybody else have any other prognostications?
This is true though to what degree we'll see. I could see companies who think ahead and have money will shut some places down and use the money saved operating all of those to rebuild the few places they have left into something "protective." Meaning something where there is less contact , distance and "Safer." Which would mean expansion of buildings and compartments added on, etc.
We'd be getting all kinds of things from vending machines probably.
There is an article today stating that because immunity appears to be unlikely long term from previously having c19, then a vaccine is also unlikely to be successful. I wonder if the chatter that a vaccine might happen by early 2021 is just to pacify the masses.
With coronavirus antibodies fading fast, vaccine hopes fade, too
Disturbing new revelations that permanent immunity to the coronavirus may not be possible have jeopardized vaccine development and reinforced a decision by scientists at UCSF and affiliated laboratories to focus exclusively on treatments.
Where the vaccine might fail the monoclonal antibodies might fill in. In fact they should be out sooner.
Larry take a nap. Come back after. The above reeks of paranoia and delusion mixed with a massive helping of historical misread.
Here are a few of the key differences between Weimar Germany and The USA.
1. The Weimar constitution was ratified in 1919. Our's 1788.
2. Weimar era Germany squirmed under reparations, debt, and a wrecked banking system.
3. We have problems with disaffected small l liberals. In Weimar Germany ~15% of the population were communists. Communists who set off bombs, actively engaged the army and took over Bavarian government offices for a time.
4. Their version of congress was a total circus with so many parties represented virtually nothing was accomplished for years.
5. The Great Depression crushed the economy.
6. And the big one Weimar Germany had to deal with the rise of The NASDP/NAZI party.
7. All of that under The Treaty of Versailles/Dawes Plan.
________________
The GRU disappeared people, used rape and torture as a methods of terror and coercion, carried out political executions by the hour. Heck the Soviets had spies in and around the Weimar government. To the point William Edward Dodd's daughter Martha (Dodd was US Ambassador to Germany in the mid-30s) was a Soviet spy. A lifelong nutty left winger himself Dodd was either the dumbest man of all time or he was a Soviet asset himself. Recall that this time there were at least four Soviet spies in The US State Department.
Rohm's Brownshirts were a NASDP/NAZI sanctioned terror and skirmish force and of course indoctrination device for young men.
Aren’t monoclonal antibody treatments extremely expensive and in most cases patient-specific?
No doubt expensive at the start, but as I understand it scalable. Any company doing this will get rich.
They are pathogen specific. The antibody protein approximates what a vaccine will do in forcing you to make your own natural antibodies that work to kill the pathogen.
I'm sorry but this post is nonsense! Yes, this is a nasty virus much worse than the influenza virus (BTW, please don't call it "the coronavirus"; it is one of seven known human coronaviruses). But brick and mortar retail is NOT dying out and neither are restaurants or coffee houses. This is a temporary blip, that from the health perspective will be dealt with through medications and vaccines. On the psychological/economic side of things, humanity will adapt even before there is a vaccine. We already see the adaptation process at work. It might take a couple of years before we emerge to the other side but we are NOT going to become homebound beings interacting only virtually. It is not hardwired into us.
My son works for a very large tech firm. They just added another campus before this pandemic. The employees have all been working from home and they just received a letter that they will continue to work from home through 2020. At that time the company will reevaluate. They are one of the largest employers where my son lives. It's fortunate that most of the employees are able to work from home.
This is really going to screw up our economy. Thank you China....
My son works for a very large tech firm. They just added another campus before this pandemic. The employees have all been working from home and they just received a letter that they will continue to work from home through 2020. At that time the company will reevaluate. They are one of the largest employers where my son lives. It's fortunate that most of the employees are able to work from home.
This is really going to screw up our economy. Thank you China....
This virus has accelerated changes that were already underway. We are transported ten years into the future for the likes of FB, Google, etc. The plum “tech” jobs, where corporations essentially hired to fill their buildings and stymie competitors, these positions are being evaluated and the realization now is that many are redundant. Head counts will decline and this will slow overall economic growth as the country emerges from the depths of the recession.
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