Will the Covid-19 Recession Turn Into a Covid-19 Depression? (bankrupt, percentage, credit card)

[JobHunter2018]

Originally Posted by Electrician4you

What a bs article. There was nothing natural progression into a recession or this upcoming “depression”. . There as no market downturn because people decided to stop shopping, investing or spending. Or some financial calamity to cause a downturn. The only reason this economy came to a slam halt stop was because governments decided to do a mass quarantine and shut down the economy. Otherwise people wouldn’t care.

Yes they would care, and yes they already do care. People are dying for lack of quarantining. People are avoiding restaurants because of the threat of infection. Try and open these businesses again and see how fast they shut right back down because everyone's scared of catching this virus.

Nearly half (47.2%) of US internet users polled by Coresight Research last month said they are currently avoiding shopping centers and malls. If the outbreak worsens, roughly three-quarters (74.6%) said they will steer away from shopping centers altogether.

and

As the coronavirus crisis worsens around the country and restaurants are either being forced to close due to local city and state ordinances, or are dealing with empty dining rooms, consumer confidence is waning. According to Datassential’s latest restaurant industry survey of consumer behaviors and emotions on March 14, 41% of Americans are nervous or worried to go out to eat, 27% are avoiding going out to restaurants altogether and under one-third of survey respondents reported “no concerns whatsoever” about dining out.

and

Phone data show consumers avoiding stores, restaurants as COVID surges

Now I call your bluff, show me studies that counter this.

You're one of those kinds of dudes that want to get people infected and killed to cull the population so that the survivors can enjoy their economy.

Originally Posted by tickyul

If Trump wins, he HAS to shake-off the stupidity of shutting-down the country for a
snifflysnuffly virus that has a very low death-rate.

Coronavirus has a death rate more than FIFTY TIMES that of the flu.

The US Death Rate From The Coronavirus Is 52 Times Higher Than The Flu

Coronavirus deaths in the US is at 156,000 in 2020 versus 62,000 deaths due to the flu in 2019.

I call you out, too. Show us citations outside of your Breitbart and Alex Jones sources that refute this. Don't give me that "the CDC is lying" bull****. Show me the scientific sources that prove your point and disprove mine.

[Dd714]

Ah yes another doom and gloom thread.

Well for one thing there is no official description or consensus of what exactly is a "depression". A recession does have one, so essentially the terms are identical ("depression" is a term not used because of the bad association with The Great Depression). Recession=depression - no difference.

In terms of the article, it's clear he is identifying "depression" as a long recession, just not a cyclical thing. I don't think that's happening for this reason - it's all due to one cause: COVID. Before that our financial system at least in the US was not only sound, but well performing. There were no structural weaknesses, no policy weaknesses, nothing really holding us back that seriously. All the issues we have now are due to one cause - COVID. It has an impact - unemployment, productivity, etc. But that will dissapear once COVID is past us, and it will be eventually. The other impact is the massive stimulus packages - indeed that will have a lingering effect to the economy to take on more and more debt. But I believe it is sustainable and manageable (although it need to be carefully controlled, obviously this stimulus cannot continue). It's long term, the pain is spread out, interest rates are low. The impact will be political, not economic - government entitlements have to be pulled back. The other fear is the global impact - the U.S. was and is economically sound, not so for other countries, some of which indeed entered this thing with an economic slow down already in place.

In summary however, I see the US quickly recovering from this once we are past COVID.

[redguard57]

Originally Posted by Serious Conversation

So far, we've been propped up by government spending. That's mostly ending and we'll see where the cards fall.

Originally Posted by Dd714

Ah yes another doom and gloom thread.

Well for one thing there is no official description or consensus of what exactly is a "depression". A recession does have one, so essentially the terms are identical ("depression" is a term not used because of the bad association with The Great Depression). Recession=depression - no difference.

In terms of the article, it's clear he is identifying "depression" as a long recession, just not a cyclical thing. I don't think that's happening for this reason - it's all due to one cause: COVID. Before that our financial system at least in the US was not only sound, but well performing. There were no structural weaknesses, no policy weaknesses, nothing really holding us back that seriously. All the issues we have now are due to one cause - COVID. It has an impact - unemployment, productivity, etc. But that will dissapear once COVID is past us, and it will be eventually. The other impact is the massive stimulus packages - indeed that will have a lingering effect to the economy to take on more and more debt. But I believe it is sustainable and manageable (although it need to be carefully controlled, obviously this stimulus cannot continue). It's long term, the pain is spread out, interest rates are low. The impact will be political, not economic - government entitlements have to be pulled back. The other fear is the global impact - the U.S. was and is economically sound, not so for other countries, some of which indeed entered this thing with an economic slow down already in place.

In summary however, I see the US quickly recovering from this once we are past COVID.

Technically, the economy was fine in 2007 too. Remember "the fundamentals are sound?" All we needed to do was get the bad subprime loans and related toxic assets in our rear-view and everything was fine.

The stimulus money is the only thing keeping us from 20%+ unemployment and evictions epidemic.

Covid revealed inequality that we knew was there before, but now is clear. There will be long term changes from this.

[Dd714]

Originally Posted by redguard57

Technically, the economy was fine in 2007 too. Remember "the fundamentals are sound?" All we needed to do was get the bad subprime loans and related toxic assets in our rear-view and everything was fine.

The stimulus money is the only thing keeping us from 20%+ unemployment and evictions epidemic.

Covid revealed inequality that we knew was there before, but now is clear. There will be long term changes from this.

Are you trying to prove my point? And 2007 was fine...eventually. Yeah doom and gloomers were predicting the end of the world then as well. The point of the article is to say this isn't like 2007, which we recovered from in a few years (albeit with a slow recovery until we changed presidents). If it's like 2007, then no problem, we just ride it out. Thanks for the support of my point.

[redguard57]

Originally Posted by Dd714

Are you trying to prove my point? And 2007 was fine...eventually. Yeah doom and gloomers were predicting the end of the world then as well. The point of the article is to say this isn't like 2007, which we recovered from in a few years (albeit with a slow recovery until we changed presidents). If it's like 2007, then no problem, we just ride it out. Thanks for the support of my point.

So I guess the economy is never bad?

The president has little to do with economic success or lack thereof. I wish more people would read the Constitution AND take a comparative politics class. The U.S. president is one of the weaker heads of state worldwide in terms of economic powers.

If Bush could have waved a wand to end the financial crisis, he would have. Same with Trump and the pandemic.

The economy began a wideapread recovery in about 2013. The markets had recovered by 2011. Not coincidentally, 2013 was when tbe last big round of foreclosures ended. Everyone who had made bad home purchases had worked their way through the system by that point, ad banks started having more success unloading their excess housing inventory to qualified buyers. By 2015, the first people who got foreclosed on due to the crisis starting having that hit fall off their credit (7 year cycle) By 2019 pretty much everyone who had their credit hit during the crisis from a bad home purchase saw that fall off their record. And voila, the economy was great.

People who do well under any given president tend to ascribe to him some kind of economic magic powers, when in reality it doesn't much matter to the economy who the presodent is, at least not at a macro level. It may matter to particular industries.

[Electrician4you]

Originally Posted by redguard57

Any reduction in consumer spending due to people staying home out of fear of a disease would by definition cause a slowdown in the economy. If it was enough people, a recession, a lot of people, a depression

And IF that was happening it would be a natural trigger...but we will never know will we.

Originally Posted by Frenchfries22

The lockdowns didn’t work because people and businesses and govt didn’t take them seriously enough. If a virus has no human to infect it will die surely.
Procedures for its control weren’t followed as much as needed

The government can simply close down their offices and advise people, to stay home and how to protect themselves. They can step in to make sure the food, utilities and hospitals are ready. They can put announcements stating what happens. I made a choice as soon as I heard about it. I had protective equipment ready and started using it. You can dig up some posts I made early January saying this thing can grow legs fast when another member was yammering about how great life was and not to take it too seriously.

Originally Posted by JobHunter2018

Yes they would care, and yes they already do care. People are
dying for lack of quarantining. People are avoiding restaurants because of the threat of infection. Try and open these businesses again and see how fast they shut right back down because everyone's scared of catching this virus.

Nearly half (47.2%) of US internet users polled by Coresight Research last month said they are currently avoiding shopping centers and malls. If the outbreak worsens, roughly three-quarters (74.6%) said they will steer away from shopping centers altogether.

and

As the coronavirus crisis worsens around the country and restaurants are either being forced to close due to local city and state ordinances, or are dealing with empty dining rooms, consumer confidence is waning. According to Datassential’s latest restaurant industry survey of consumer behaviors and emotions on March 14, 41% of Americans are nervous or worried to go out to eat, 27% are avoiding going out to restaurants altogether and under one-third of survey respondents reported “no concerns whatsoever” about dining out.

and

Phone data show consumers avoiding stores, restaurants as COVID surges

Now I call your bluff, show me studies that counter this.

You're one of those kinds of dudes that want to get people infected and killed to cull the population so that the survivors can enjoy their economy.


Coronavirus has a death rate more than FIFTY TIMES that of the flu.

The US Death Rate From The Coronavirus Is 52 Times Higher Than The Flu

Coronavirus deaths in the US is at 156,000 in 2020 versus 62,000 deaths due to the flu in 2019.

I call you out, too. Show us citations outside of your Breitbart and Alex Jones sources that refute this. Don't give me that "the CDC is lying" bull****. Show me the scientific sources that prove your point and disprove mine.

Stop with the calling out.......it’s childish....Jesus Christ get a life.

I’m not saying not to take care of yourself and be careful. But we don’t need the government going crazy and locking down. I’m a thinking human being and have deductive reasoning.. I’m not a 2 year old child. We had plenty of pandemics in the recent years and we did not shut down the country. But then they weren’t sensationalized like CV19


No I’m not one of “those dudes”. I’m simply saying is people can make up their own minds as to going in a business or staying home. It’s their personal risk factor. I made up my own mind on not going to restaurants that dont have the proper safety in place and staying away from people. I don’t need the government to tell me what to do. If a person wants to keep their business open thats on them. If the customers dont come in because they feel unsafe because you don’t have the proper equipment or facilities to keep them safe or whatever the reason ...that’s also on them. Then they make their own choice to close or stay open.

Or are you telling me that our population is so stupid a cow is actually smarter than they are as people can’t make their own decisions and need government intervention to tell them exactly what to do?

And explain to me how does it make sense that most businesses are closed and forced to stay closed but you are allowed to go f’ing crazy protesting next to one another with hundreds of strangers every night for weeks on end, you're allowed to go to supermarkets again with people all around you in a enclosed space and “essential” businesses but restaurants have to shut down. The interaction between me and a waiter is MINIMAL. Hell they can take my order from 6 feet away and wear masks when they deliver the food. Bring a pitcher of drinks so you’re not back. Only come when I flag you down.

And

If a shop says wear a mask before you come in and you decide to walk in not wearing a mask that owner has ever right to kick you the f out. It’s his store and your belief of not HCI gto be forced t9 wear a mask stops at his door threshold.

Originally Posted by redguard57

Technically, the economy was fine in 2007 too. Remember "the fundamentals are sound?" All we needed to do was get the bad subprime loans and related toxic assets in our rear-view and everything was fine.

The stimulus money is the only thing keeping us from 20%+ unemployment and evictions epidemic.

Covid revealed inequality that we knew was there before, but now is clear. There will be long term changes from this.

No it wasn’t. There were many bs NINJA loans and inflated prices. The loans were known to be bad and they were still made. The loans made today are or at least were somewhat regulated more. I bought another house 4 years ago. The loan process was a lot different. They actually need to check everything. Job I OC e taxes reserves. I had a check fo 12k on a dividend and I had to show where it came from.

And more importantly back then we didn’t have the shortages we have now. We also didn’t shut down every public place of business. You could go to movies, restaurants, shopping,

[redguard57]

Originally Posted by Electrician4you

And IF that was happening it would be a natural trigger...but we will never know will we.

You know what's bad for the economy? Mass death. Doesn't matter if it's mostly older people. The more families that experience a death, the more they'd cut their economic activity.

We are actually quite lucky this does not kill prime age young people and adults as much, like the Spanish Flu. If it did, the economy would be MUCH worse because people wouldn't go to work in "essential" businesses. It's still not good for adults, because if they develop the covid disease (not just catch the virus), they are down for anywhere from 2-6 weeks with the disease and then 2 weeks of quarantine. It's also not just about death. No one wants permanent lung damage, which is happenning to some of the previously healthy adults who got moderate-to-severe cases.

The closures are a reaction to the pandemic, not the cause of economic stress. The pandemic is the cause. Human societies have reacted to epidemics with quarantines since we had organized government. Every country on Earth has done some form of lockdown and closures.

This is not some conspiracy to harm the economy.

[Dd714]

Originally Posted by redguard57

So I guess the economy is never bad?

The president has little to do with economic success or lack thereof. I wish more people would read the Constitution AND take a comparative politics class. The U.S. president is one of the weaker heads of state worldwide in terms of economic powers.

If Bush could have waved a wand to end the financial crisis, he would have. Same with Trump and the pandemic.

The economy began a wideapread recovery in about 2013. The markets had recovered by 2011. Not coincidentally, 2013 was when tbe last big round of foreclosures ended. Everyone who had made bad home purchases had worked their way through the system by that point, ad banks started having more success unloading their excess housing inventory to qualified buyers. By 2015, the first people who got foreclosed on due to the crisis starting having that hit fall off their credit (7 year cycle) By 2019 pretty much everyone who had their credit hit during the crisis from a bad home purchase saw that fall off their record. And voila, the economy was great.

People who do well under any given president tend to ascribe to him some kind of economic magic powers, when in reality it doesn't much matter to the economy who the presodent is, at least not at a macro level. It may matter to particular industries.

WTF? Are you in the right thread?
I thought we were talking about COVID impact to economy. What's all the politics. Your comments have little to do with my last post.

[JobHunter2018]

Originally Posted by Electrician4you

Stop with the calling out.......it’s childish....Jesus Christ get a life.

Aw, poor baby, you don't like being hauled out on the carpet when you're factually wrong. Tough cookies. I'm not going to stop until you stop deceiving people.

I’m not saying not to take care of yourself and be careful. But we don’t need the government going crazy and locking down.

In other words you want people to die to save the economy, like Texas's Lt. Gov said. Because when you don't lock down, you get people killed. Even Japan has learned this the hard way.

I’m a thinking human being and have deductive reasoning.. I’m not a 2 year old child.

You're not good at proving this to be true.

We had plenty of pandemics in the recent years and we did not shut down the country. But then they weren’t sensationalized like CV19

Because none of them were as insidious or contagious as this.

No I’m not one of “those dudes”. I’m simply saying is people can make up their own minds as to going in a business or staying home. It’s their personal risk factor.

And due to public irrationality their "making up their minds" is why America has the worst infection and death rate in the world.

Freedumb < life.

And as far as I'm concerned they need to lock down grocery stores, and have them do outdoor delivery-to-car. Or at least force a lot stricter social distancing. Indoors is the best way to transmit COVID-19.

Strict Government enforcement of lockdowns, wearing masks and social distancing saves lives. Period. To hell with your beliefs. Following your way gets people killed and it's time we jettison "free speech" and start throwing people in jail for advocating otherwise. **** it. I'm done with this. Send in the army.

[blahblahyoutoo]

Originally Posted by Dd714

Ah yes another doom and gloom thread.

Well for one thing there is no official description or consensus of what exactly is a "depression". A recession does have one, so essentially the terms are identical ("depression" is a term not used because of the bad association with The Great Depression). Recession=depression - no difference.

In terms of the article, it's clear he is identifying "depression" as a long recession, just not a cyclical thing. I don't think that's happening for this reason - it's all due to one cause: COVID. Before that our financial system at least in the US was not only sound, but well performing. There were no structural weaknesses, no policy weaknesses, nothing really holding us back that seriously. All the issues we have now are due to one cause - COVID. It has an impact - unemployment, productivity, etc. But that will dissapear once COVID is past us, and it will be eventually. The other impact is the massive stimulus packages - indeed that will have a lingering effect to the economy to take on more and more debt. But I believe it is sustainable and manageable (although it need to be carefully controlled, obviously this stimulus cannot continue). It's long term, the pain is spread out, interest rates are low. The impact will be political, not economic - government entitlements have to be pulled back. The other fear is the global impact - the U.S. was and is economically sound, not so for other countries, some of which indeed entered this thing with an economic slow down already in place.

In summary however, I see the US quickly recovering from this once we are past COVID.

a well performing economy does not need low interest rates.
a well performing does not QE.
a well performing does not to step into the repo markets to provide liquidity.
a well performing does not deficit spend.
a well performing would not see the yield curve invert.