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Yes market reacts strongly to interest rate changes and gold usually has an inverse relationship to market performance. We all know this.
I am unclear what exactly you are trying to argue and what about my post was "uhhh no". Be more specific
You said interest rates were on an upward trend up until the virus. They were not. They started going down in early 2019. The debt bubble we were in and still in couldn’t handle the rate hikes. The rates would be basically the same today virus or no virus.
You said interest rates were on an upward trend up until the virus. They were not. They started going down in early 2019. The debt bubble we were in and still in couldn’t handle the rate hikes. The rates would be basically the same today virus or no virus.
Yes but I already responded to the other guy on this matter, you weren't responding to the latest. I acknowledged rates dropped (not in early 2019, you are incorrect sir) and explained I was looking at the trend over an extended period, not short term. The feds tweak the rates, it goes up and down. The economy was strong before the virus (yes I know, weather it was strong or weak is now a political issue subject to those picking and choosing statistics). Anyways what we saw this year was not a tweak obviously. But no need to repeat myself. I don't like reruns.
So I can't agree rates will be the same today (zero essentially), the big drastic rate drops where in March 2020 and directly related to the virus and the actions on quantitative easing, that is so obvious as not even warranting explanation. They will be low like this for a couple years probably.
Really I am confused on what is being argued here. If you think it's the end of the world go to the prepper forum and buy a cabin and some livestock in the woods. Myself I think the fundamental structure of our economy are sound (with some caveats, such as borrowing and entitlements), it will be like this for a couple years and then a recovery like the last recession.
Yes but I already responded to the other guy on this matter, I acknowledged rates dropped in mid (not early) 2019 and explained I was looking at the trend over an extended period, not short term. The feds tweak the rates, it goes up and down. The economy was strong before the virus (yes I know, weather it was strong or weak is now a political issue subject to those picking and choosing statistics). Anyways what we saw this year was not a tweak obviously. But no need to repeat myself. I don't like reruns.
So I can't agree rates will be the same today (zero essentially), the big drastic rate drops where in March 2020 and directly related to the virus and the actions on quantitative easing, that is so obvious as not even warranting explanation. They will be low like this for a couple years probably.
Really I am confused on what is being argued here. If you think it's the end of the world go to the prepper forum and buy a cabin and some livestock in the woods. Myself I think the fundamental structure of our economy are sound (with some caveats, such as borrowing and entitlements), it will be like this for a couple years and then a recovery like the last recession.
Do you not understand our debt was so huge and still is that if it wasn’t the virus it would have been something else to prick the bubble. While I agree with you that rates will remain at essentially zero for the next few years, try adding another 10 as well. There’s is so much debt it’s not even funny. The feds are printing trillions more to try and prevent the economy collapsing so they have chosen to collapse the dollar instead.
I actually hope in my life’s time to see the US finally lose the privilege of being the reserve currency for the world. We honestly deserve whatever the consequences of that happening will be.
Do you not understand our debt was so huge and still is that if it wasn’t the virus it would have been something else to prick the bubble. While I agree with you that rates will remain at essentially zero for the next few years, try adding another 10 as well. There’s is so much debt it’s not even funny. The feds are printing trillions more to try and prevent the economy collapsing so they have chosen to collapse the dollar instead.
I actually hope in my life’s time to see the US finally lose the privilege of being the reserve currency for the world. We honestly deserve whatever the consequences of that happening will be.
Your last sentence is telling. All countries are in financial straights, and you are hoping for financial disaster for one country in particular - the U.S. That explains everything I need to know about you and your comments.
But for others I leave these comments - debt is sustainable at levels previously thought not to be, debt was increased tremedously with covid. But...and this is going to be hard to swallow, it might blow your mind, because we've always been taught that debt was bad - it isn't the big boogie man that you have always been taught. Really, the problem is not the debt itself, but the cost of servicing debt, and to a lesser extent how it's structured. That's why low interest rates are good, not to savers, but to borrowers. There was a fixed debt-to GDP level that was always taught to be bad, 75% of so - that's old school thinking. Now in the US its like 135%. HORRORS! END OF WORLD! No, it isn't for an advanced economy. Japan has a level of debt about double to that percentage. Financial discipline is good, but debt isn't the end of the world as previously taught. Do we really think the U.S. is going to default? There are reasons other countries are buying up US bonds. We have to remain cautious yes, we need to curb spending, but it's no reason to panic. It's sustainable even at the present level.
Your last sentence is telling. All countries are in financial straights, and you are hoping for financial disaster for one country in particular - the U.S. That explains everything I need to know about you and your comments.
But for others I leave these comments - debt is sustainable at levels previously thought not to be, debt was increased tremedously with covid. But...and this is going to be hard to swallow, it might blow your mind, because we've always been taught that debt was bad - it isn't the big boogie man that you have always been taught. Really, the problem is not the debt itself, but the cost of servicing debt, and to a lesser extent how it's structured. That's why low interest rates are good, not to savers, but to borrowers. There was a fixed debt-to GDP level that was always taught to be bad, 75% of so - that's old school thinking. Now in the US its like 135%. HORRORS! END OF WORLD! No, it isn't for an advanced economy. Japan has a level of debt about double to that percentage. Financial discipline is good, but debt isn't the end of the world as previously taught. Do we really think the U.S. is going to default? There are reasons other countries are buying up US bonds. We have to remain cautious yes, we need to curb spending, but it's no reason to panic. It's sustainable even at the present level.
really? so that we will be spending enormous amounts of our budget servicing debt rather than upgrading or infrastructure, or funding other social services is not a detriment to society?
or a personal level, spending $500/mo to pay student loans rather than purchasing other goods and services that will spur the economy is a good thing?
yes, at some point, people will start to wake up and stop buying US debt. institutions are already rushing into PMs and btc.
really? so that we will be spending enormous amounts of our budget servicing debt rather than upgrading or infrastructure, or funding other social services is not a detriment to society?
or a personal level, spending $500/mo to pay student loans rather than purchasing other goods and services that will spur the economy is a good thing?
yes, at some point, people will start to wake up and stop buying US debt. institutions are already rushing into PMs and btc.
How much do we pay to service debt when interest rates are near zero? And are you arguing on for more entitlements? I think we are getting closer to your real agenda here, the other guy let his slip out...but let's discuss debt, which seems to be the focus for your argument that the US is heading for a zombie Apocalypse like disaster:
Look, you are still thinking old school. The Dave Ramsey school of ignorance that teaches that debt is bad. Well, it could be bad for those that can't manage it. But on the macro scale this argument (debt it unsustainable) has been in place for years and keeps on getting rolled back and revised on what level it is not sustainable. There is no agreement. There is also good debt and bad debt. Good debt is an investment that pays off in dividends. Good debt for your example - student loans - is OK theoretically if the cost of this debt is repayed in dividends. Get a college education and get a high paying job. If you have a degree and work in a walmart obviously it was not a good choice.
The US taking on debt, obviously, it does pay for goods and services, it doesn't disapear...for the most part. Because it's the government, there is waste involved...and I still don't get why we are paying people more money not to work then they do working, so obviously it needs to be managed...hey I'm actually a fiscal conservative, I don't like these bail outs. But how much is too much debt is out of your scope of knowledge. Economists, experts in the field, are still arguing that point. Any my point is it doesn't represent the collapse of civilization.
How much do we pay to service debt when interest rates are near zero? And are you arguing on for more entitlements? I think we are getting closer to your real agenda here, the other guy let his slip out...but let's discuss debt, which seems to be the focus for your argument that the US is heading for a zombie Apocalypse like disaster:
Look, you are still thinking old school. The Dave Ramsey school of ignorance that teaches that debt is bad. Well, it could be bad for those that can't manage it. But on the macro scale this argument (debt it unsustainable) has been in place for years and keeps on getting rolled back and revised on what level it is not sustainable. There is no agreement. There is also good debt and bad debt. Good debt is an investment that pays off in dividends. Good debt for your example - student loans - is OK theoretically if the cost of this debt is repayed in dividends. Get a college education and get a high paying job. If you have a degree and work in a walmart obviously it was not a good choice.
The US taking on debt, obviously, it does pay for goods and services, it doesn't disapear...for the most part. Because it's the government, there is waste involved...and I still don't get why we are paying people more money not to work then they do working, so obviously it needs to be managed...hey I'm actually a fiscal conservative, I don't like these bail outs. But how much is too much debt is out of your scope of knowledge. Economists, experts in the field, are still arguing that point. Any my point is it doesn't represent the collapse of civilization.
I didn’t let my agenda slip out because I don’t have one. You’re the one arguing for entitlements, that the US can just print money and continue living a high standard of living by letting other countries do our dirty work aka manufacturing. All we give them is an IOU in return because we are the reserve currency. That’s entitlement.
I didn’t let my agenda slip out because I don’t have one.
and previously...
Quote:
Originally Posted by JPrzybylski07
I actually hope in my life’s time to see the US finally lose the privilege of being the reserve currency for the world. We honestly deserve whatever the consequences of that happening will be.
That's called an agenda...besides being pretty disgusting.
This topic is called "Will the Covid....turns into depression", not "I WISH the Covid...turns into depression".
Further discussion with you has ended.
That's called an agenda...besides being pretty disgusting.
This topic is called "Will the Covid....turns into depression", not "I WISH the Covid...turns into depression".
Further discussion with you has ended.
Oh please stop taking everything so literal. I was trying to drive a point home. Of course I don’t wish that would happen. However it doesn’t it mean it won’t.
The big difference between the great recession of 2008 and now, is that in 2008 it affected just about everyone. With the pandemic many of us are not only not affected, able to work from home, but saving money by not commuting or going out as much, plus getting stimulus money. It's basically the lower income jobs such as retail and hospitality that are unemployed or laid off temporarily. Now some public agencies (state, county and city) are cutting personnel costs due to less tax revenue, but a small percentage of layoffs compared to 2008. At 11.1% unemployment rate today, 88.9% are working. At worst in 2009 it was less, at 10%, but that included people in all salary ranges.
Don't forget gyms. Pure8 in front of Zeeks went under.
I think the winter will tell all how bad it will be. If we stay at this level of closure all those restaurants that have benefited from good weather will feel the pain again. Coffee shops too.
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