What happens to property values in areas like SF and NYC with work going virtual? (company, tax)

[ohio_peasant]

Originally Posted by silverkris

And why is behavior under the pandemic so politicized in this country? In France, Germany, Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Canada, it isn't.

It's politicized because large and voluble groups of people have self-segregated into competing camps. The one camp has grown to loathe the other, regarding them not as fellow citizens with competing views, but as sworn enemies.

In economic terms, the one camp views the other as parasites and exploiters, and vice versa. So, it becomes important to harm and to disturb the opposing camp, even at the cost of some incremental harm to one's own camp.

Originally Posted by redguard57

I'm skeptical of the "forever" pronouncements people make about Covid19. Even the Black Plague ended, and generally the rich were still rich and the poor still poor.

There may be a temporary slump in values of hard-hit places, but what made them valuable before will still be true 2-3 years from now.

Certain places are inimitably special. NYC is one example. NYC is/was irreplaceable. Even if a hydrogen bomb were to annihilate Manhattan, a faithful facsimile would be soon rebuilt. But if we believe James Altucher's article, the rationale for having a special place like NYC is now vitiated. It's not that the city couldn't be brought back after 2-3 years; of course it could! It's that the willpower to do it, or the economic value in doing it, has been diminished.

In a similar way, a decaying midsized Rust Belt city continues to struggle and to suffer decline in property-values, not because it is impossible to beautify or to rejuvenate it, but simply because the economic case isn't compelling. Climate is harsh, taxes are maybe too high, and it's just not a very attractive place to live. So, businesses eschew it, even if costs are comparatively low. Well-heeled homeowners flee, while poorer ones are stuck.

It's possible of course that wealthy New Yorkers have only temporarily decamped, just like the noblemen in Boccaccio's Decameron, during the 1348 plague in Florence. Those refined gentlemen and ladies always intended to return, once their fair city conquered the plague. Could NYC be similar? Maybe. But here's the difference. The Florentines would never seriously consider moving to Milan, or even Pisa or San Gimignano. They were for generations Florentine born-and-bred. To remake their lives elsewhere, would not merely be political treason. They would be culturally and socially alien. Florence remains their mother, however embattled she may temporarily be. Would New Yorkers feel similarly? I doubt it.

Originally Posted by M3Guy

Besides playing with a dog in your backyard, or spending the weekends cleaning the extra rooms in the expansive house or having a slightly cheaper rent, what would be different vs living in the city (which most cities have houses as well)?

One example is Plummer Park in West Hollywood - a "suburb" of Los Angeles. 25 years ago, I'd go there regularly, to play chess. Chess is a big part of my life, and I'm willing to pay the city-tax (costs, inconvenience, pollution, traffic, ...) just be able to regularly play chess. That is no longer possible. So, for me, the draw of the big-city has been very much attenuated.

[ContraPagan]

Originally Posted by mizzourah2006

What does "under control mean"? We've had masked mandated in my area for ~2 months now and in our state for a month now and while cases have been flat, they definitely haven't gone down.

In reality most of the spread isn't happening when you go to the grocery store or the hardware store un-masked. It's happening when you go hang out with your friends at their house, go to a BBQ, go out to eat or get drinks with friends/colleagues, have family in from out of town, do a kids play-date, etc. All of those are instances where basically no one is wearing a mask and is unlikely ever to. Even the most liberal of liberal friends I have that do nothing but preach about masks on social media have pictures of themselves hanging out un-masked with friends and family and at the end of the day that's where most of the spread is coming from. Masks in public might alleviate the exponential threat slightly, but they won't stop the spread.

You have to WAIT for the curve to flatten. It isn't going to flatten over night.

Look at NY (the STATE, not just NYC). Our curve has flattened more than any other, because our mandates have been stricter, and have been in place longer. The masks in businesses mandates has been in place for over 4 months, as has masks in public if you can't socially distance. Sure, we have our share of whiners about it, the idiots who can't seem to understand that this is for their own protection, but the fact remains that we set the standard for how to deal with this situation.

[LordSquidworth]

If everybody can work from home then I guess those Bay Area firms no longer need expensive labor. They’ll start telling you you can take a pay cut or you’ll be replaced by someone in Ohio.

[Thatsright19]

Originally Posted by LordSquidworth

If everybody can work from home then I guess those Bay Area firms no longer need expensive labor. They’ll start telling you you can take a pay cut or you’ll be replaced by someone in Ohio.

Assuming of course that the talent level in Ohio can replace them. Or that those highly paid workers can’t replace their employer just as easily.

And they’re not expensive because they work in a high cost office. They’re expensive because they’re rare and they can command certain things...like living in desirable areas.

[Thatsright19]

Originally Posted by ContraPagan

You have to WAIT for the curve to flatten. It isn't going to flatten over night.

Look at NY (the STATE, not just NYC). Our curve has flattened more than any other, because our mandates have been stricter, and have been in place longer. The masks in businesses mandates has been in place for over 4 months, as has masks in public if you can't socially distance. Sure, we have our share of whiners about it, the idiots who can't seem to understand that this is for their own protection, but the fact remains that we set the standard for how to deal with this situation.

I saw somebody wearing a medical mask that covered their entire face...except they cut out specifically the part on the nose and mouth.

It’s people like that...

[ohio_peasant]

Originally Posted by Thatsright19

Assuming of course that the talent level in Ohio can replace them. Or that those highly paid workers can’t replace their employer just as easily.

And they’re not expensive because they work in a high cost office. They’re expensive because they’re rare and they can command certain things...like living in desirable areas.

At the risk of defaming my beleaguered countrymen, whose talent indeed bears plenty of room for improvement, I say that rare is the truly irreplaceable person, who can name his price and purpose, and thrive under any duress. Most people, however well-educated or experienced, are of a middling sort. If one is so good and costly, he can be replaced by two, each at half of the price.

More on topic.... the top-level luminaries, given the 'rona and the other barbs of modernity, might actually consider decamping to some place like Ohio.... not because they wish to trade the symphony-orchestra for dueling banjos, but because the value proposition of a truly great city - the energy, the richness, the amenities and feel - is rather moot, when we're masked and distanced.

[skeddy]

13,000 vacant apartments just in Manhattan. Ever look at a street view of what NYC looks like these days? Practically a ghost town.....

[Thatsright19]

Originally Posted by ohio_peasant

At the risk of defaming my beleaguered countrymen, whose talent indeed bears plenty of room for improvement, I say that rare is the truly irreplaceable person, who can name his price and purpose, and thrive under any duress. Most people, however well-educated or experienced, are of a middling sort. If one is so good and costly, he can be replaced by two, each at half of the price.

More on topic.... the top-level luminaries, given the 'rona and the other barbs of modernity, might actually consider decamping to some place like Ohio.... not because they wish to trade the symphony-orchestra for dueling banjos, but because the value proposition of a truly great city - the energy, the richness, the amenities and feel - is rather moot, when we're masked and distanced.

Sorry, sorry. I Can rarely pass up getting a shot in at Ohio....but big time tech jobs going to Ohio? I had to pile on those downtrodden people.

They don’t give a damn about our whole state and won’t refer to that team up north by name

https://youtu.be/ezUNyTsG4RI

[Phil P]

There is lots of speculation, but I think one thing that can be agreed on by most all is that new development of office and high density residential is stalled or cancelled for the next 5 years. What happens with the existing development is more up for debate. While residential may have been overbuilt, it sounds like office space was not to the same extent, though office space is suffering more in the current environment.

[GoldKona]

Originally Posted by MDrenter223

They are shutdown for a moment.


When this is over the cities will still be great, and fly over country will still be fly over country.

Just as God intended.