What happens to property values in areas like SF and NYC with work going virtual? (bankrupt, real estate)

[flying_pan]

Originally Posted by ohio_peasant

That's only true, if amenities and institutions are open! If museums are closed, what's the point of living in a city that's blessed by world-class museums? If socializing with sophisticated and accomplished people is important, what's the point when said people are cowering in isolation at home?

The whole premise of a city, is a functioning society, where there's ample interaction face-to-face... where there are large gatherings and small... where there is, in other words, a functioning society. If society refuses to function - in definitely - then we might as well live in Siberia or Somalia (depending on climate-preferences).

People still socialize with friends. Some things are open, plus many activities are just temporarily remote, so you still participate in them.

Cities have their advantages, and in no way it is going away. Living in the middle of nowhere is the worst nightmare for many, especially born and raised in the cities. I know that the US has this ideal image of rugged explorers, but in reality not a lot of people are interested in it.

[ddm2k]

Originally Posted by M3Guy

People are putting the cart before the horse. Pulling the trigger too soon before they know for a fact WFH will be permanent and job secure. Hellooooo outsourcing!

I keep hearing this over and over, but I assure you, several generations will filter through most of these jobs and retire while waiting on that to come true. We as individuals stand to lose more making knee-jerk decisions and giving up our seats prematurely because we're just "delaying the inevitable" than actually calling the bluff of naysayers and staying put.

Google, Facebook (and any social media company) were founded recently enough that their entire operations could have been outsourced from Day 1. Didn't happen. They could technically still do it right now. Not happening. And they can do it at any time they wish - I wouldn't bank on that happening.

The countries who were popular outsource destinations now have their own strong local economies with jobs that serve companies actually based there. Labor rates are rising and they are no longer as competitive in terms of labor cost as they once were. The financial projections on what was thought to continuously provide this cost savings to companies is drying up.

If anything, companies are reversing offshore migrations to appear both more socially responsible and appeal to more patriotic types. What we are seeing though is an imposed "sink or swim" test on mom & pop businesses that already were operating on thin margins. There's no more such thing as a business that has been "barely getting by" for the past 20 years. You either have a lucrative model or you'll fold or move on.

I call it the Starbucks effect. Though there are few franchises that are as large or as profitable, commercial real estate developers want to charge rents as if every tenant was a Starbucks (or a Panera, or a Chipotle). One-off businesses gather up enough money to qualify for the first year's lease, proceed to lose money month over month, and fold not long after that. Franchises with thinner margins are suffering the same fate. Look how quickly Logan's filed for bankruptcy (and announced a closure of ALL locations) after the announcement of COVID restrictions.

[roadwarrior101]

I live in the suburbs outside of SF. I have heard that the city is emptying and home sale prices and rental prices are dropping (not sure yet if this will be temporary or permanent). I will say in my community, the housing market is very hot. Homes are going well above asking with multiple offers and not staying on the market very long.

People seem to want to leave the city for a better lifestyle in terms of raising kids, good schools and easier to socially distance. They also aren't yet convinced that the remote work trend will become permanent and want to hedge their bets in being within commute distance to major employers in SF/Silicon Valley.

[silverkris]

Originally Posted by roadwarrior101

I live in the suburbs outside of SF. I have heard that the city is emptying and home sale prices and rental prices are dropping (not sure yet if this will be temporary or permanent). I will say in my community, the housing market is very hot. Homes are going well above asking with multiple offers and not staying on the market very long.

People seem to want to leave the city for a better lifestyle in terms of raising kids, good schools and easier to socially distance. They also aren't yet convinced that the remote work trend will become permanent and want to hedge their bets in being within commute distance to major employers in SF/Silicon Valley.

I also live in the SF Bay Area - specifically in the middle of Tech Land (like Google, Facebook). So far, prices around here AREN'T dropping, because even though there may be less transactions for real estate, the supply of homes are relatively few. I can't say what the City of SF is like, however.

[AloePurell]

Originally Posted by MDrenter223

You don’t live in the city just for work.

You do it for culture, for amenities, for lifestyle.

Doctors all over the county live in nice cities and spend a long weekend in rural America to make bank working as hospitalists or urgent care doctors because people with options rarely want to live in the middle of nowhere.

Exactly. Plenty of us love the city also because we hate driving everywhere and boredom is not an option when there's freetime.

[jego914]

Originally Posted by roadwarrior101

I live in the suburbs outside of SF. I have heard that the city is emptying and home sale prices and rental prices are dropping (not sure yet if this will be temporary or permanent). I will say in my community, the housing market is very hot. Homes are going well above asking with multiple offers and not staying on the market very long.

People seem to want to leave the city for a better lifestyle in terms of raising kids, good schools and easier to socially distance. They also aren't yet convinced that the remote work trend will become permanent and want to hedge their bets in being within commute distance to major employers in SF/Silicon Valley.

Same thing in NYC. People are flooding the suburbs, not enough supply for the demand...but they are staying within a commuting distance. I would not say many are just picking up and moving out into the country. I would say this has to do with Covid/remote work, but also with the recent upsurge in violence in NYC.

[Hoonose]

Originally Posted by MDrenter223

I much rather live in an area that took the science seriously than an area that denies the effectiveness of masks.

An interesting comment, meant to be medical or political?

[Themanwithnoname]

Originally Posted by MDrenter223

You don’t live in the city just for work.

You do it for culture, for amenities, for lifestyle.

Doctors all over the county live in nice cities and spend a long weekend in rural America to make bank working as hospitalists or urgent care doctors because people with options rarely want to live in the middle of nowhere.

That's true for some.

Others flee the urban areas as soon as they (financially) can, usually in retirement.

[Hoonose]

Originally Posted by Themanwithnoname

That's true for some.

Others flee the urban areas as soon as they (financially) can, usually in retirement.

As a doc I fled Chicago 40 years ago, choosing rural AZ vs the urban lifestyle for all sorts of reasons. Now just retired we are spending a summer in Portland. A whole different world!

[MDrenter223]

Originally Posted by Hoonose

An interesting comment, meant to be medical or political?

Medical I guess.