What happens to property values in areas like SF and NYC with work going virtual? (pension, buy)

[beachmouse]

Originally Posted by Hoonose

I'm in Portland for the summer, and maybe we'll become snowbirds. Most everyone properly masks here, and even the gyms are open with precautions in place.

Where would you go?

I kind of fell in love with Portland last summer when we were there. More affordable housing than Denver (currently the top Life 3.0 pick) and the right mix of big city amenities and outdoor recreation close by. The people there seemed to really give a damn about each other, unlike where we are now, and the current troubles are localized and easy to avoid.

The plan has long been to retire to a bigger city, and up until Hurricane Michael, we had Tampa and Jacksonville on the shortlist. But that storm was bad enough and close enough that we both realized we wanted a lower natural disaster locale for the next part of life. Yeah the Yellowstone volcano is overdue but it's probably 25K more years before that blows.

[ohio_peasant]

Originally Posted by CorporateCowboy

... cities, particularly SF, have far more to offer (by comparison) beyond simply being a city to work - for singles, couples and a fairly significant retired population in the Bay Area as well. I would think it could ultimately affect other areas far more so in the long-term (which don't have much going on other than being a location for employment).

Quite true, but it all depends on the duration of the mitigating measures, such as social-distancing.

How many would-be couples - and eventually parents - never met, because the prospective partners were, ahem, socially distancing? Consequently, how many babies would not be born? What will be the reverberations for decades into the future?

Technical experts who already convened in-person prior to the 'rona, can largely continue their work, while working from home, perhaps from distant and disparate locations. But what about junior-people, looking for their first STEM job? Would about young scientists/engineers, who need hands-on mentorship and unmitigated group interaction? At a minimum, these people will be less productive. They'll be making a smaller economic contribution, even if they keep their jobs and their benefits and so forth. The stunted productivity growth-rate, will reverberate for decades into the future.

If we're all hunkered in our apartments, does it matter if those apartments are in SF or in Peoria? If we're watching a symphony-concert remotely, instead of going to Davies Hall, does it matter if we're doing this in our apartments in SF, or in a small-town in Alabama? A large part of going to Davies Hall in the first place, is to see and to be seen, to mingle during intermission, to spot people in the gallery, to chat them up after the performance. Lacking that, why pay the "SF tax"? Why bother?

[CorporateCowboy]

Originally Posted by ohio_peasant

How many would-be couples - and eventually parents - never met, because the prospective partners were, ahem, socially distancing? Consequently, how many babies would not be born? What will be the reverberations for decades into the future?

This has nothing to do with the OP's question re: property values in areas such as SF and NYC and the long-term effects of WFH (when we don't really know, realistically, what it will look like long-term for many (particularly those who will still need to be near an office, lab, whatever).

Regardless, we still need to live somewhere, though there may certainly be a shift based in re: desire/choice than simply a location as a result of employment (so areas with nothing much to offer have far more potential to suffer long-term, as they currently do). Desirability won't change that much, even if need does.

Originally Posted by ohio_peasant

If we're all hunkered in our apartments, does it matter if those apartments are in SF or in Peoria? If we're watching a symphony-concert remotely, instead of going to Davies Hall, does it matter if we're doing this in our apartments in SF, or in a small-town in Alabama?

It may not matter to you; but it certainly matters (to me) where my home is, lol. We won't be 'hunkered' in our homes forever; and while we are, why not be in an area we can enjoy the outdoors i.e. sailing, extensive trail system, the coast, the mountains and so on vs. being stuck in Peoria? In fact, where one lives becomes even more relevant to one's happiness (as more time is being spent at home or near it); it's a no-brainer, particularly for those who already live here. It's not as if we are all going to sell our homes and move to Peoria or Alabama. :-)

[ddm2k]

Heard from a local realtor that second-home sales are up over 100% from this month last year. Sure this figure is temporary but I think everyone's got a little bit of prepper in them in situations bad enough.

[ddeemo]

Originally Posted by Hoonose

The riots are another thing. And very localized. As far as the virus, the riots are surprisingly not stirring it up. We have a lower general incidence here, and the riots of course are outside. Protestors mostly tend to mask, actual rioters seems mixed.

Doesn't matter how localized - still much bigger issue. Protesters mostly masked - that means it is Ok? Looks like gas masks to me, wonder why, maybe because police have had to resort to tear gas to control things.



Not stirring it up? It was just reported that in Portland, there has been over 80 days (85th day yesterday) of police dealing with riots instead of doing their normal job. The city is shutting down. not minor issue. https://nypost.com/2020/08/19/portla...tly-blm-riots/

Large companies are fleeing offices in downtown Portland — because nightly Black Lives Matter riots are making the heart of the Oregon city a no-go area, according to a report.

“Businesses are leaving,” Andrew Hoan, president and CEO of the Portland Business Alliance (PBA), told KATU. “The financial consequences to the downtown corridor are a running calculation that is almost impossible to wrap your mind around,” he said — with one company already saying the riots have cost $20 million in damage and lost business.

“You have blocks and blocks of plywood. You have graffiti. You have an accumulation of damages that are unrepaired, an ongoing perception that coming downtown is not a safe place,” Hoan said “We need to start to turn the corner now, so that this sort of irreparable damage does not last.”

Portland has seen regular violence and destruction during 83 consecutive nights of protests, with Tuesday once again being declared a riot as a mob smashed its way into a government building and set fires.

BLM and Antifa bullies also setting fires and terrorizing people. https://twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status...847368704?s=20
This was a guy that tried to drive away and they pulled him from his vehicle and kicked him in the head and put in the hospital because trying to leave was "racist" - as he is lying on the street, the bullies are heard yelling Black Lives Matter. The driver said he was trying to help someone. I suppose he deserved it?

Portland is a ****hole - a few complaining about wearing masks while still following the rules in AZ is worse? Your utter Bias is on full display.

[Hoonose]

Originally Posted by ddeemo

Doesn't matter how localized - still much bigger issue. Protesters mostly masked - that means it is Ok? Looks like gas masks to me, wonder why, maybe because police have had to resort to tear gas to control things.



Not stirring it up? It was just reported that in Portland, there has been over 80 days (85th day yesterday) of police dealing with riots instead of doing their normal job. The city is shutting down. not minor issue. https://nypost.com/2020/08/19/portla...tly-blm-riots/



BLM and Antifa bullies also setting fires and terrorizing people. https://twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status...847368704?s=20
This was a guy that tried to drive away and they pulled him from his vehicle and kicked him in the head and put in the hospital because trying to leave was "racist" - as he is lying on the street, the bullies are heard yelling Black Lives Matter. The driver said he was trying to help someone. I suppose he deserved it?

Portland is a ****hole - a few complaining about wearing masks while still following the rules in AZ is worse? Your utter Bias is on full display.

I'm not condoning the riots one bit. What I'm saying is that so far the riots have not stirred up the virus. Probably because they are outdoors.

But being from Chicago, these are hardly even riots compared to the '60's and '70's!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9_GlqRRs0s

[ddm2k]

Originally Posted by ddeemo

Portland is a ****hole - a few complaining about wearing masks while still following the rules in AZ is worse? Your utter Bias is on full display.

I agree.

Also, this user better not receive an infraction for an automatically censored word.

[silverkris]

Originally Posted by ohio_peasant

You do have a point there. But as a left-leaning person - at least by historical standards of this Forum - the pandemic is launching me right into the arms of the hardest of the hard-right.

And why is behavior under the pandemic so politicized in this country? In France, Germany, Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Canada, it isn't.

[ddeemo]

Originally Posted by beachmouse

I kind of fell in love with Portland last summer when we were there. More affordable housing than Denver (currently the top Life 3.0 pick) and the right mix of big city amenities and outdoor recreation close by. The people there seemed to really give a damn about each other, unlike where we are now, and the current troubles are localized and easy to avoid.

The plan has long been to retire to a bigger city, and up until Hurricane Michael, we had Tampa and Jacksonville on the shortlist. But that storm was bad enough and close enough that we both realized we wanted a lower natural disaster locale for the next part of life. Yeah the Yellowstone volcano is overdue but it's probably 25K more years before that blows.

Oregon has very high income taxes and they get high quickly at a very low income level - tax is 9% on couple earning $17K. I have relatives that lived in Portland, they all left years ago. I prefer WA to OR but really would never go back to either (my family is from WA originally).

Earthquakes are more likely than an eruption to impact Portland. FYI - Yellowstone is about 800 miles away - about same distance as MN to Yellowstone. Denver is much closer than Portland. Portland has much nearer and more likely eruptions than Yellowstone. Mt Hood is about 60 miles and has a much higher chance of eruption - estimated 3% chance in next few years. Mt St Helens last erupted in 2008 and that is about 80 miles away. I was in WA when the big eruption of St Helens in 1980 and was on that mountain less than a month prior.

[Hoonose]

Originally Posted by ddeemo

Oregon has very high income taxes and they get high quickly at a very low income level - tax is 9% on couple earning $17K. I have relatives that lived in Portland, they all left years ago. I prefer WA to OR but really would never go back to either (my family is from WA originally).

Earthquakes are more likely than an eruption to impact Portland. FYI - Yellowstone is about 800 miles away - about same distance as MN to Yellowstone. Denver is much closer than Portland. Portland has much nearer and more likely eruptions than Yellowstone. Mt Hood is about 60 miles and has a much higher chance of eruption - estimated 3% chance in next few years. Mt St Helens last erupted in 2008 and that is about 80 miles away. I was in WA when the big eruption of St Helens in 1980 and was on that mountain less than a month prior.

The RE taxes here in Portland are astronomical compared to home in AZ. 1/2 the house and twice the tax! And parking! lol But no sales tax.