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08-15-2020, 06:51 AM
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8 posts, read 7,705 times
Reputation: 18
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I don’t stay on top of news that much but I did stumble upon this WSJ article
https://apple.news/A-kb9ZdgtSuKG27LLOCyUFg
Once there’s a deluge of people realizing they don’t need to live in congested cities to work — what will happen to property values?
Could there come a day when history says that property values soared in some crowded cities for decade after decade but instead of a typical market downturn temporarily hurting values — it was COVID-19 that drove a stake through the heart of high dollar big city property?
A lot of our smartest people living in the big cities could get left holding the bag if their $1.5M condo gradually falls in value to say $500k.
This could mean that property values in some cities become much more affordable...allowing for more “common” folk to take up residence.
As people leave I guess values in other areas go up...perhaps in places many miles or even states away.
I think this COVID thing will have lasting changes. One of which will be a withdrawal of people from heavily urban areas to places less urban.
I don’t think the high dollar cities will go away completely though....prices will just drop and you’ll have a more economically eclectic population. Like people making $50k easily living in SF or NYC.
Kayaks are selling like hot cakes around here. People are going 100 miles to pick one up. Even the rich yuppies.
The future is having space and living part of your life online (like many already do socially and whatnot).
This spells doom for big city property values.
If you already own in these places — you’ve been warned I guess. |
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08-16-2020, 06:30 PM
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1,687 posts, read 1,065,914 times
Reputation: 1656
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People are putting the cart before the horse. Pulling the trigger too soon before they know for a fact WFH will be permanent and job secure. Hellooooo outsourcing!
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08-16-2020, 06:35 PM
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Location: Wisconsin
19,481 posts, read 23,197,267 times
Reputation: 50985
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M3Guy
People are putting the cart before the horse. Pulling the trigger too soon before they know for a fact WFH will be permanent and job secure. Hellooooo outsourcing!
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That is what I was thinking, too. |
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08-17-2020, 05:22 AM
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Location: Sydney Australia
1,382 posts, read 836,495 times
Reputation: 2521
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Not the same market but the same issues.
The top of the market in Sydney is booming. I think SF and NY have the same profile in a lot of ways in that much more is on offer than just a workplace. eg the inner east in Sydney offers quick access to the city, to the harbour, to the iconic surfing beaches, to many of the top private schools, to the most famous racecourse in Sydney, the Sydney cricket ground, top golf courses. People in all circumstances want to live there, WFH or not.
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08-17-2020, 06:41 AM
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1,081 posts, read 1,333,983 times
Reputation: 1623
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Makes sense. I used to work for state government and I still have a lot of close friends who do. The wages were very competitive, even in CA where the cost of living statewide is above average.
For 10 years the union and employers have been trying to work out the kinks of work from home and covid obviously drove that into the stratosphere. And it's worked. Not everything is perfect but productivity isn't dropping during work from home. This could be the new normal. Said friends will consider moving up to 100 miles away from their jobs for much cheaper housing knowing that the new normal even after covid will probably be 1 day a week in the office. My IT friend is considering moving to another state completely.
I can see how less neccesity to actually live in the city you work in will lower prices. Maybe not significantly, but who knows.
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08-17-2020, 08:14 AM
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1,197 posts, read 1,671,305 times
Reputation: 1728
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You don’t live in the city just for work.
You do it for culture, for amenities, for lifestyle.
Doctors all over the county live in nice cities and spend a long weekend in rural America to make bank working as hospitalists or urgent care doctors because people with options rarely want to live in the middle of nowhere.
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08-18-2020, 10:34 AM
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Location: moved
12,612 posts, read 8,231,375 times
Reputation: 21392
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MDrenter223
You don’t live in the city just for work.
You do it for culture, for amenities, for lifestyle.
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That's only true, if amenities and institutions are open! If museums are closed, what's the point of living in a city that's blessed by world-class museums? If socializing with sophisticated and accomplished people is important, what's the point when said people are cowering in isolation at home?
The whole premise of a city, is a functioning society, where there's ample interaction face-to-face... where there are large gatherings and small... where there is, in other words, a functioning society. If society refuses to function - in definitely - then we might as well live in Siberia or Somalia (depending on climate-preferences). |
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08-18-2020, 11:03 AM
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1,687 posts, read 1,065,914 times
Reputation: 1656
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MDrenter223
You don’t live in the city just for work.
You do it for culture, for amenities, for lifestyle.
Doctors all over the county live in nice cities and spend a long weekend in rural America to make bank working as hospitalists or urgent care doctors because people with options rarely want to live in the middle of nowhere.
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Agreed. Many people just like living in the city.
Also, where I live, morning traffic going southbound towards the city is heavy, and the afternoon traffic going back northbound is heavy. Most of the people that work in the city in my area don't live in the city. |
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08-18-2020, 11:52 AM
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Location: Brawndo-Thirst-Mutilator-Nation
21,265 posts, read 22,169,000 times
Reputation: 18658
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Don't be fooled by the exodus-hype, there are some areas that are just very desirable
to live in.....the property-values may wane some, but they will not crash, SF and NYC included.
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08-18-2020, 11:53 AM
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1,197 posts, read 1,671,305 times
Reputation: 1728
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ohio_peasant
That's only true, if amenities and institutions are open! If museums are closed, what's the point of living in a city that's blessed by world-class museums? If socializing with sophisticated and accomplished people is important, what's the point when said people are cowering in isolation at home?
The whole premise of a city, is a functioning society, where there's ample interaction face-to-face... where there are large gatherings and small... where there is, in other words, a functioning society. If society refuses to function - in definitely - then we might as well live in Siberia or Somalia (depending on climate-preferences).
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They are shutdown for a moment.
It’s not cowering, it’s understanding that things are pretty messed up right now, but these things will pass and our scientists are learning more daily. I much rather live in an area that took the science seriously than an area that denies the effectiveness of masks.
When this is over the cities will still be great, and fly over country will still be fly over country. |
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