Will real Estate have V shape initial crash like stock market? (jobs, housing)

[M3Guy]

This is all speculation. The more important question is, what jobs are next on the chopping board? People buying up suburban houses may not have their jobs in a year. There is a domino effect.

[OregontoGeorgia]

Originally Posted by M3Guy

This is all speculation. The more important question is, what jobs are next on the chopping board? People buying up suburban houses may not have their jobs in a year. There is a domino effect.

As a liberal myself, let me tell you what we are seeing — a wealth redistribution. Those moving from high tax democrat controlled places (like me) often like their money and know how to protect it. They can get out of the big cities and make it somewhat comfortably in the burbs for a while.

#1 priority is maintaining wealth
#2 priority is politics

That’s cut throat but I’m gangsta.

[StealthRabbit]

Originally Posted by OregontoGeorgia

As a liberal myself, let me tell you what we are seeing — a wealth redistribution. Those moving from high tax democrat controlled places (like me) often like their money and know how to protect it. They can get out of the big cities and make it somewhat comfortably in the burbs for a while.

#1 priority is maintaining wealth
#2 priority is politics

That’s cut throat but I’m gangsta.

But.... It's all gonna burn.

I gave my wealth to my family foundation at age 39.

The rest has worked itself out.
Eating fine
Healthy (good thing if living in USA during a pandemic with no affordable healthcare... For last 12 yrs)

[TheShadow]

Real estate in my area is on a climb with no sign of a downturn in sight. New homes are being built and homes on the lower end of the price scale for the area sell with multiple offers in days. C-virus has had ZERO impact here. Lots of retirees in my area, and lots of new people moving to the state.

[1ondoner]

No crash/dip in the horizon

DoubleLine's Shinoda explains what housing has now that it didn't during the last crisis

[Rakin]

Are you talking NY City where people are leaving or Dallas TX where people are going?

[weezerfan84]

Originally Posted by MidModUSA

From what I am reading, the downturn is going to be location specific. There appears to be a mass exodus from cities into the burbs and outlying areas fueled by need for safety, reduced cost of living and the ability to work remote. I am seeing it here in our mid-sized city in the Midwest. Our area is typically a stable market and weathers downturns well but we aren't 'hot' and have never seen dramatic price increases. But things are starting to heat up here. I have been shocked at what homes in my neighborhood are selling for now. Our job market is not too robust but when you factor in remote work... well, that is a game changer. So, think about the homes those people are leaving... where are they? Are buyers swooping in to buy in them? There was a reason someone left that area and if inventory starts to increase in those areas but inventory becomes tighter in areas like mine, then that will be very localized and the 'dip' is not on a national scale as the 2008 crisis was.

This is what happened in Northwest Arkansas when Wal-Mart doubled down on e-commerce to combat Amazon surging in popularity. Wal-Mart wanted its vendors in their backyard and home prices have skyrocketed ever since. I have coworker that lives in Fayetteville and to build his house 5 years ago was $91/sq ft. Similar sized house is now going for $135/sq ft. That's nearly 50% increase in costs in roughly 5 years.

Inventory can't get to market quick enough before it's under contract. Seeing a lot of houses hit the market in the $300-500k range. The average sale price for homes in Northwest Arkansas right now is $256k. In 2015, it was right around $200k.

[skeddy]

Talked to a RE broker I've known told me hasn't seen the housing market like this in 25 years. Houses in bidding wars. Sales are great.

[Northern Maine Land Man]

I was born before WWII. I have seen three real estate booms and three busts. Many areas are in the early stages of a boom. Building supply companies are out of stock in many items. Sawmills are working three shifts. Many home buyers are hoping to get the shell of their home up and weather tight before winter and it's still summer. I see the highest unsatisfied demand in rural and very rural areas.Many families have been into soft preparedness.Rather than go to a deli or pizza shop every day, they actually cook. Now these soft preppers want to go long on prepping and grow their own food and hunt in safe places. The FBI says that Maine is the safest state.

Hurricanes are always followed by shortages in building supplies.Keep an eye on the Gulf Coast this week.

[Rakin]

Originally Posted by Northern Maine Land Man

Hurricanes are always followed by shortages in building supplies.Keep an eye on the Gulf Coast this week.

A fairly large Regional Builder told me a few days ago the cost of lumber to frame a house has gone up $12,000 since May.