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Old 04-30-2008, 08:32 PM
 
Location: America
6,993 posts, read 16,055,227 times
Reputation: 2083

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Well, with the latest numbers released it seems like it isn't a recession. However this video shows you how to properly interpret the data (in a very simplified way) link
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Old 04-30-2008, 09:10 PM
 
Location: Great State of Texas
86,068 posts, read 76,913,074 times
Reputation: 27652
Here's another link with the "real" numbers as well.

Hard numbers: The economy is worse than you know - St. Petersburg Times
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Old 04-30-2008, 09:40 PM
 
5,273 posts, read 13,218,132 times
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One can probably find, literally, dozens of "official reports" to justify their position.

I wonder what the real numbers are?
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Old 04-30-2008, 10:53 PM
 
Location: Great State of Texas
86,068 posts, read 76,913,074 times
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Blazer..you can probably figure them out from the official gov't site. There are plenty of notes on what's excluded, what's included and what's substitued as well as how they adjusted for inflation. There are some people that do sit down and do the calculations.

The government isn't actually hiding anything..it's just so obfuscated.

I go to this site alot because I still like to follow M3 which the government doesn't post anymore.
Shadow Government Statistics » Alternate Data Series
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Old 05-01-2008, 12:26 AM
 
5,273 posts, read 13,218,132 times
Reputation: 5843
Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyTexan View Post
Blazer..you can probably figure them out from the official gov't site. There are plenty of notes on what's excluded, what's included and what's substitued as well as how they adjusted for inflation. There are some people that do sit down and do the calculations.

The government isn't actually hiding anything..it's just so obfuscated.

I go to this site alot because I still like to follow M3 which the government doesn't post anymore.
Shadow Government Statistics » Alternate Data Series

The problem is that there are numerous government reports and different politicians & media outlets use them for their own purposes. And I fully agree about "obfuscating".
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Old 05-01-2008, 01:09 AM
 
Location: Houston, Texas
10,420 posts, read 46,512,978 times
Reputation: 10467
Who needs twisted statistics. Twisted to show what ever the reporting agency wants it to look like.

The real truth can only be verified by living it. Look around you. The jobs in the Sunday newspaper have shrunk to a few pages. Pawn shops all over are reporting record numbers of people selling their jewels. Prices on every single item we must buy to survive has skyrocketed. Companies no longer give raises (except govt or union jobs) and those who do, the better ones toss a token quarter an hour per year. 45% of Americans are one pay check from disaster. 72% of Americans are one illness away from financial ruin. Over 80% of Americans have a medical debt on their credit rating.

We have a foreclosure rate that is worse then the 1928 crash when you take the total homes VS the population % of the time. People are walking away from their homes all over. These people have marked their credit in such a way that they will not be able to buy another home for 7-10 years. That takes hundreds of millions of home buyers out of the buyers market for a long time. Car insurance, health insurance, home owners insurance....all out of the average persons reach.

The rich keep getting richer and the poor and middle class continue to get poorer.

You mark my words. We are heading for a complete economic crash. A complete collapse. Todays news said gas will be $6-8 a gallon by 2012. That is about $200 to fill up for the average car. 19% of Americans live below the poverty level now and that is just about their total weekly earnings after being raped for taxes.

Here we are here reading this on our thousand dollar PCs hooked up to a provider for another $40/m and many dont even know those "other" people exist. Just because you dont see them driving into the driveways on your block does not mean they dont exist. Their numbers are increasing fast.

Recession? By the time this govt admits that word we will have by then be in a depression.
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Old 05-01-2008, 11:50 AM
 
10,915 posts, read 8,910,472 times
Reputation: 9749
The one dip recession is usually not that bad. It's the second dip like 2002, 1992, and 1982 when the economy doesn't recover long enough to bring back jobs. It takes about 6 to 12 months for business to start adding jobs.
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Old 05-01-2008, 12:54 PM
 
323 posts, read 1,965,070 times
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Couldn't have said it better myself!

Quote:
Originally Posted by BLAZER PROPHET View Post
The problem is that there are numerous government reports and different politicians & media outlets use them for their own purposes. And I fully agree about "obfuscating".
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Old 05-01-2008, 01:13 PM
 
27,509 posts, read 56,635,220 times
Reputation: 21927
Quote:
Originally Posted by desertsun41 View Post
Who needs twisted statistics. Twisted to show what ever the reporting agency wants it to look like.

The real truth can only be verified by living it. Look around you. The jobs in the Sunday newspaper have shrunk to a few pages. Pawn shops all over are reporting record numbers of people selling their jewels. Prices on every single item we must buy to survive has skyrocketed. Companies no longer give raises (except govt or union jobs) and those who do, the better ones toss a token quarter an hour per year. 45% of Americans are one pay check from disaster. 72% of Americans are one illness away from financial ruin. Over 80% of Americans have a medical debt on their credit rating.

We have a foreclosure rate that is worse then the 1928 crash when you take the total homes VS the population % of the time. People are walking away from their homes all over. These people have marked their credit in such a way that they will not be able to buy another home for 7-10 years. That takes hundreds of millions of home buyers out of the buyers market for a long time. Car insurance, health insurance, home owners insurance....all out of the average persons reach.

The rich keep getting richer and the poor and middle class continue to get poorer.
I don't necessarily disagree with what you wrote... I would like to add a few of my own limited observations from living in the SF Bay Area...

I personally know 11 people that have lost property through Foreclosure or will in the next 6 weeks... Everyone owned at least two homes with one being bought in the last 3 years... one co-worker bought 3 homes in the last 3 years and is loosing all of them... it makes sense that there are more foreclosures today than during the Great Depression because many of those loosing homes have more than one home to loose.

Employment wise... I work in the Medical Field and have very good friends in Law Enforcement... both are areas desperate to hire and at very good wages... new hire RN's at SF General start at 100k and Oakland starts new recruit rookie officers at more than 70k and both offer tremendous benefit packages...
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Old 06-28-2008, 04:24 PM
 
6 posts, read 32,881 times
Reputation: 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by desertsun41 View Post
Who needs twisted statistics. Twisted to show what ever the reporting agency wants it to look like.

The real truth can only be verified by living it. Look around you. The jobs in the Sunday newspaper have shrunk to a few pages. Pawn shops all over are reporting record numbers of people selling their jewels. Prices on every single item we must buy to survive has skyrocketed. Companies no longer give raises (except govt or union jobs) and those who do, the better ones toss a token quarter an hour per year. 45% of Americans are one pay check from disaster. 72% of Americans are one illness away from financial ruin. Over 80% of Americans have a medical debt on their credit rating.

We have a foreclosure rate that is worse then the 1928 crash when you take the total homes VS the population % of the time. People are walking away from their homes all over. These people have marked their credit in such a way that they will not be able to buy another home for 7-10 years. That takes hundreds of millions of home buyers out of the buyers market for a long time. Car insurance, health insurance, home owners insurance....all out of the average persons reach.

The rich keep getting richer and the poor and middle class continue to get poorer.

You mark my words. We are heading for a complete economic crash. A complete collapse. Todays news said gas will be $6-8 a gallon by 2012. That is about $200 to fill up for the average car. 19% of Americans live below the poverty level now and that is just about their total weekly earnings after being raped for taxes.

Here we are here reading this on our thousand dollar PCs hooked up to a provider for another $40/m and many dont even know those "other" people exist. Just because you dont see them driving into the driveways on your block does not mean they dont exist. Their numbers are increasing fast.

Recession? By the time this govt admits that word we will have by then be in a depression.

I can't agree more. My husband and I just shake our heads in disgust when we hear the local news and read the local papers with their boosterism and rah-rah cheerleading about how "good" this area (Central ORegon) is doing. ha ha
The local (and biggest employer here) wood products manufacturing plant laid off over 200 people in the last year. The boat manufacturing plant in the county laid off almost that many people in the last year. There are no other big industries here to take up the slack. Lots of meth, crime, burglaries, people out of work. The newest commercial venture here is a fried chicken place (woo-hoo, more minimum wage, service jobs!!) and a new hotel with a clock tower that looks like Tom Terrific's funnel hat. Ditto on the wages. I don't know how people are going to make it anymore except with getting on the government (read, taxpayer) funded dole. With more people out of work, where will the money come from?
I predict that we will have mass unemployment, worse than we have seen in our lifetime, except for the Great Depression. It is the domino effect. Here in Central Oregon, the housing market was so overpriced and overvalued that builders and contractors are losing their shorts, have lost their shorts, or are going into foreclosures. Too many spec builders and people wanting to get on the greed gravy train. Attendant jobs have gone by the wayside.
I predict we will start seeing more abandoned vehicles. When people run out of money, out of gas, out of work, & can't get to work, they will either lose their rented homes/go into foreclosure, or start living out of their vehicles. People who can only afford (!) driving older, cheap gas hogs will not be able to afford the gas and low mpg, or the insurance (if they are even insured).
We may even have a return to the Hoovervilles of the Depression. It would be like starting a Third World country within this great nation. People building squats to live in out of whatever they can salvage, just like in Mexico outside of big cities.
I predict we will see more abandoned animals. Pets of all kinds will be turned loose to fend for themselves. Shelters will be overflowing. I think that is pathetic. Dogs dumped in rural areas will form packs and run livestock and chase humans, before getting shot by local ranchers.
I predict a stock market crash. Our dollar is weakening rapidly. Again, the domino effect. The world has depended on our country's economic and financial health for so long. This could be a very serious, world wide depression.
My only advice is to become as frugal as you can be, and then some. Believe me, my grubbing powers are well honed. I have done this for years. Use it up, wear it out, make it do, go without. I know by memory how much everything costs and what I won't buy unless it is on sale. The Dollar store is your friend. We don't buy paper towels, we use old clothes for rags, wash them, or throw them away if gunky. Thrift shop clothes and shoes are fine. We have no cable TV, no cell phones, no gadgets, no Internet, no eating out, no trips to other towns, no frivolous purchases. (I am writing this on my lunch break at work). Make all your stops in one trip when running errands. Pay your bills first, then put something in savings, then buy groceries and gas. Look down the road. Stop your bad habits (cigarettes, booze).
My husband has been out of work almost a year. He is at that age where people don't want to hire older workers (59 1/2). (Industrial Engineer, BSIE, Purdue University). He is a Veteran. He can't get employers to consider him, although he has had a few interviews. We have a stack of reject letters/applied-to jobs over 6 inches high. He has been to numerous job fairs and done the unemployment $$. They didn't help him at all. Self-serving State jobs.
We have slipped from subsistence living to a negative cash flow. There are no government programs to assist people who make a tad more than the poverty level. I take my lunch to work, eat ramen, scour the mark down sections at the grocery store, buy outdated foods. We don't go anywhere, don't do anything, except on our property. We have a garden. We innovate.
I am getting a 28 cent raise per hour this year. It will just pay enough to cover the increase in the cost of my "insurance" (that I can't afford to use) that is connected to my health savings account. I have worked here to 13 years and make $10.75 an hour. There is nothing else here unless you "know" someone. I won't go into that because it is too depressing. I have fibromyalgia and have prescriptions. I can't afford to pay for them without the health savings account. It would eat up 1/4 of my income every month.
The recession is here and I think it has been a long time coming, just various factors contributing for several years. It will get worse, no doubt about it. Stop spending on things you don't need or can't afford. You won't regret it a year from now.
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