It's August 2020, the unemployment rate has gone down since April what do you predict for 2021 ? (job, define)

[mathjak107]

Originally Posted by Mircea

Leave it to Forbes (which hasn't been relevant for 70 years) to muck everything up.



The causal factors are different. Too bad the idiot Sherman isn't smart enough to figure that out.

There's a huge difference between government shutting down jobs and jobs being lost for other reasons.



And, pray tell, what is the job growth rate?

When the US Census Bureau conducts the monthly CPS (Current Population Survey) it does not distinguish between people returning to work and new jobs that never before existed.

How stupid is Sherman not to know that?

For the record, the CPS does ask if you have been recalled from lay-off, but BLS does not maintain data on recalls. You're simply labeled as "employed."



Well, gosh, what businesses were heavily impacted by the government-mandated closures?

That would be restaurant, bars, retail and hospitality where women and Blacks are heavily employed.

Again, how stupid is Sherman not to know that?

Does Sherman think that the government should have closed manufacturing facilities?

Here's Sherman running government:

We're shutting down your factory in order to make the number of unemployed men equal to the number of unemployed women and everyone can feel good about themselves.



Sherman lied.

The percentage of persons unemployed for 27 weeks or more was 18.7% in January 2020 and 19.1% in February 2020.

It was 11.9% in August up from 9.3% in July.

The point being that 11.9% is clearly better than 19.1%.



According to the CPS, there were 158,017,000 employed in February. There are now 147,224,000 unemployed.

That's actually 10.7 Million.



Those are not "additional" jobs. Those are employees being recalled.





The number of persons discouraged over job prospects decreased from 701,000 in July to 551,000 in August (See LNU05026645).

The number of persons working part-time due to slack work decreased from 7,280,000 in July to 6,106,000 in August (See LNU02032196).

Shocking how someone can get it so wrong.



That information cannot be determined from the data.



The number who usually work part-time was 23,294,000 in July and 23,605,000 in August which is not 800,000+.



I would not disagree, which is why we examine the CES (Current Employer Survey) which consistently gets 98%+ response.



False.

There is no category for "temporary lay-off."

The determination as to whether one is "unemployed" is based on the definition of "unemployed" for which all of the following must be true:

1) You must be available to work; and
2) You must want to work; and
3) You must have sought work in the 4 weeks prior to the survey.

A retiree who is available to work but does not want to work is Not in Labor Force.

A woman who wants to work but is not available to work because she is attending school, or caring for family is Not in Labor Force.

A man who is available to work and wants to work but has not looked for work in the 4 weeks prior to the survey is Not in Labor Force.

It's not Nuclear Physics in spite of what Sherman thinks.



Not relevant. States set the rules for eligibility for unemployment benefits for their State, and not other States or the entire US and the rules vary.



Again, not relevant.

States require persons to be unemployed for 2-4 weeks before they may apply for benefits.

When an employee is laid off, some States require the lay-off be 4-6 weeks before you can apply for benefits.

Also, with respect to lay-offs, some States require the lay-off period to be anticipated to exceed 30-90 days.

Nearly all States are overwhelmed with unemployment claims and there are extreme delays in awarding benefits, so UI data is not even worth looking at, because the data is inaccurate.

The wait period was eliminated for unemployment.....there is no longer penalty weeks..unemployment is paid right from week one ...wait weeks were eliminated in the programs they passed.

Corporations skirting the warn act notifications have totally manipulated the numbers ...

To avoid the 60 day notice when going from furloughed to terminated they rehired just enough furloughed workers to stay under the law ..

Those brought back to skew the numbers so no advance warning is needed will soon be terminated.

So we will see unemployment drop for about two months and then resume going higher again.

According to what my son is seeing ,as he is a partner in one of the country’s largest labor law firms ,about 30-40% of jobs will likely be gone at many large corporations when things settle down and all are terminated

[EDS_]

Originally Posted by txfriend

US jobless claims drop sharply because the government changes counting method.

Care to explain that?

[mathjak107]

They dropped for the reasons I explained above, it was expected by those who understand the warn act ...so many furloughed workers had to be rehired back so those going from furloughed to terminated could be done so with out hitting the warn act requirements .

After 6 months you must be terminated . To skirt the 60 day warning corporations are manipulating their numbers by bringing people back so they are not terminating as many vs number of employees still employed .

Those brought back will be terminated themselves once those furloughed are done being terminated .

All beautifully executed by the corporations and totally legal As they skirt the up to 60 days warning notice

[lchoro]

You can tell the unemployment rate is undercounted since the PUA captures those who don't qualify for normal UI. There is a table that consolidates all the claims for assistance.

UI

[tickyul]

If Trump wins, Democrat states will keep the covid-based nonsense at full-bore.....possibly leading
the USA into a depression.

If Mumbles wins, who knows?

[mkpunk]

I think the real question that isn't going to be asked is what Republicans asked while Obama was in office, how many discouraged workers are there? I wondered this with both Obama and Trump. Unemployed at U-3 means you are actively looking for work. No furloughed workers, no workers that are not looking at the moment, but rather people who are actively looking for work.

I think August was up largely due to people looking with unemployment talks at a standstill for the month and a lot of questions with the Trump admin's $300 federal unemployment extension. I fear September's numbers will dip back up with some furloughs becoming permanent. The question is how many will be actively looking and how many will be not.

[lchoro]

17.1 percent

! For March through July, BLS published an estimate of what the unemployment rate would have |
| been had misclassified workers been included. Repeating this same approach, the overall |
| August unemployment rate would have been 0.7 percentage point higher than reported. However, |
| this represents the upper bound of our estimate of misclassification and probably overstates |
| the size of the misclassification error. |
|

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

[Coldjensens]

Second quarter 2021 economy will hit a brick wall.

[redguard57]

I think we'll move back to 10% and hover around there for a while before it starts going back down.

[lieqiang]

Originally Posted by redguard57

I think we'll move back to 10% and hover around there for a while before it starts going back down.

I second.