Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Not in our lifetimes or our children or our grandchildren. By which time we'll other reliable, cost-effective sources of energy.
Even your population worries are very much in question, given how many countries have already fallen well below replacement levels in terms of population growth. Even countries such as Brazil has seen fertility rates fall below the necessary 2.1 to ensure population stability.
What guys like you don't realize is that you are part of a long, long continuum of Chicken Littles who have been predicting that doom is just around the corner for centuries. I mean, Robert Malthus was scribbling out the same nonsense in the late 18th Century. The Club of Rome in the 1960s.
What these boneheads never seem to grasp is that human innovation not only manages to keep up, but actually exceeds perceived need. I mean, if you are to believe Robert Malthus, we would have all been starving a long time ago. Instead, the biggest problems developed countries face today is from overeating, not starvation. Even undeveloped countries are fully capable of feeding themselves. Food shortages in those countries is not a function of insufficient production but rather of incompetent or represssive regimes that choose to weaponize famine.
I'm not exactly a Pangloss, far from it. At the same time, I don't immerse myself in the dystopian prediction du jour the way you seem to. Read some actual history for a change.
Do you think we have endless supplies of cheap oil, or bottomless pits to throw our trash In, or infinite tracts of fertile farmland? Do you think there has ever been a scenario in natural history where a population boom didn't have a corresponding population crash?
Robert Malthus and the rest of the "chicken littles" were/are fundamentally correct in their reasoning- that is all that matters. The coming economic collapse due to resource and energy depletion will make the Great Depression look like a small technical correction. No, we are not going to push the dire consequences of our behavior off to future generations- WE are the generations that will be facing the consequences.
And...
There is no substitute for oil. No other energy source we have available to us is so dense, transportable, convenient, and versatile.
We don't need infinite tracks of farmland, since food production/cultivation has continued to increase at a rate of efficiency that has far outpaced population growth.
World population is expected to peak at about 11 billion in 2100, that is less than 50% more than today. You really can't imagine food production increasing by 50% over the next 80 years through combination of further increases in efficiency and/or more land use? You are so stuck in your "we're doomed" refrain you really believe mankind will somehow cease being innovative starting this morning so must just sit and watch resources deplete.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Taggerung
Do you think there has ever been a scenario in natural history where a population boom didn't have a corresponding population crash?
Absolutely. There are many species that have been around in significant populations for millions of years.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Taggerung
There is no substitute for oil. No other energy source we have available to us is so dense, transportable, convenient, and versatile.
I can imagine you in the 18th century looking around and declaring there is no substitute for wood, and given the world's population trends there would be no more forests soon resulting in a population collapse event. If your mind was any narrower it would only be visible from side angles.
The standard fixed rate plan is $0.28/kw and only if in first tier https://www.sdge.com/residential/pri...dard-rate-plan - I believe every other plan is currently a TOU plan. Your rate is probably 27.539 cents per Kw which is the standard residential service rate. What you listed at $0.13441 is the UDC rate for summer, ($0.20070 for winter) that is not the billed rate - here is the rate sheet https://www.sdge.com/sites/default/f...%20Table_0.pdf
UDC stands for Utility Distribution Company - it is the amount SDGE gets - the other 2 parts are the EECC (Electric Energy Commodity Cost) and BC (Bond Costs) - SDGE has among the highest rates in the country.
My rates in SD with TOU-EV5 vary from $0.09 overnight to charge EV to as much as $0.50 for peak during summer. In NV, my rate is $0.044 per Kw.
FACTORS:
Population increases, fuel use increases
Fossil fuel stocks deplete, cost for fuel increases
Pollution and related side effects escalate, triggering resistance to fracking, etc
Rationing of resources, break down in international trade and travel
. . .
SUGGESTED SOLUTIONS:
To maintain the same or greater quality of life, transition to more efficient / frugal technologies.
__ Transportation : electric traction rail (save 90% or more in fuel)
__ Housing : superinsulate to reduce fuel use; reduce air infiltration with air-lock foyers (or revolving doors)
__ Consolidate population : reduce distance traveled for goods and services, recover arable land
__ Local food production : eliminate long distance transport costs
Exactly. There are numerous opportunities to reduce energy usage and at the same time create opportunities for economic growth and good-paying jobs. Will it be a transition without some disruptions? No. BP knows the way they need to go and is implementing a transition business plan. Critics point out that they are giving up their competitive advantage since competitors will be able to take advantage of current lax laws that do not capture the true cost of oil and deliver energy at a cheaper cost. Time will tell, but BP sees their current way of doing business, and the industry in general, as unsustainable and without a shift to alternate sources the likely end to their business.
Last edited by Lincolnian; 10-25-2020 at 04:21 AM..
No, increasing energy use is not a rational expectation. Larger utilities will continue to report flat to declining electricity growth and will continue to retire lots of obsolete generating capacity in the next 5-10 years, That is a good trend.
No, increasing energy use is not a rational expectation. Larger utilities will continue to report flat to declining electricity growth and will continue to retire lots of obsolete generating capacity in the next 5-10 years, That is a good trend.
I'm not sure what you are saying?
EIA says electrical generation by utilities will grow a shade less than 1% per year until 2050. With natural gas still, and by far, producing the most utility generated power at 2050.
That 1% would be higher save small scale PV power and a few other items.
This type of foolish complacency is exactly why we will be so horiffically blindsided by the 'collapse' when it finally does happen.
This type of foolish horrifical grandstanding and "the sky is falling" mentality is exactly why everyone dismisses your rants. Peak oil is more likely to be determined by politics than by actual economic forces in the US. "Collapse" is also unlikely since there are many alternative energy sources and efficiencies that are capable of allowing continued growth.
The standard fixed rate plan is $0.28/kw and only if in first tier https://www.sdge.com/residential/pri...dard-rate-plan - I believe every other plan is currently a TOU plan. Your rate is probably 27.539 cents per Kw which is the standard residential service rate. What you listed at $0.13441 is the UDC rate for summer, ($0.20070 for winter) that is not the billed rate - here is the rate sheet https://www.sdge.com/sites/default/f...%20Table_0.pdf
UDC stands for Utility Distribution Company - it is the amount SDGE gets - the other 2 parts are the EECC (Electric Energy Commodity Cost) and BC (Bond Costs) - SDGE has among the highest rates in the country.
My rates in SD with TOU-EV5 vary from $0.09 overnight to charge EV to as much as $0.50 for peak during summer. In NV, my rate is $0.044 per Kw.
How does that work? Does the EV communicate with the meter to enable the discounted rate or is there a registration process that enables the discount? If the latter, does all your electric use in the overnight period receive the same discount or is limited to that which the EV can utilize?
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
