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"Running out" is not the issue - the economic cost to extract petroleum will rise and rise, to a point at which consumers will choose alternatives.
Right. One category of large consumers, electric utilities, are increasingly choosing solar and wind power, not because it's cleaner or more environmentally cleaner, but because they are cheaper.
"Solar PV and onshore wind are now the cheapest sources of new-build generation for at least two-thirds of the global population. Those two-thirds live in locations that comprise 71% of gross domestic product and 85% of energy generation. Battery storage is now the cheapest new-build technology for peaking purposes (up to two-hours of discharge duration) in gas-importing regions, like Europe, China or Japan." -- Bloomberg
Even in the oil- and gas-rich UAE, they chose to build the world's largest solar power plant because even for them solar was cheaper. Solar and wind are very attractive to a utility because once installed, the cost of fuel is zero. Coal, natural gas and nuclear all cost money to operate because you have to pay for the fuel and to have it delivered.
By 2050 there's going to be a huge amount of oil and gas that will be stranded and left underground, untapped, because solar and wind with storage will be so cheap that it won't make economic sense to pump the fossil fuel to the surface. Consumers will choose electric cars because they will be cheaper and more reliable than gasoline-powered vehicles. Oil will still be needed for jet fuel, diesel for construction and farming equipment, etc. but with those uses demand for oil will be 80%-90% lower than what it is today.
Last edited by Elliott_CA; 10-01-2020 at 09:52 AM..
OP, the problem with so many of the predictions of Peak Oil or the other infamous "population bomb" from the 1970's is that they use extrapolation without accounting for any reactions, changes or even just basic physics.
It would be like plotting marathon times and extending them out exponentially and then claiming that by 2250 people will be running 8 second marathons.
Peak Oil has been used for decades alongside a host of other calamaties to scare people into buying survival meals, books, gold and other products.
I'm not even against prepping as there are some very real threats out there like solar flares and so forth beyond your mundane ever-present weather risks.
However, there are A LOT of hucksters out there selling BS and this is a classic case.
FACTORS:
Population increases, fuel use increases
Fossil fuel stocks deplete, cost for fuel increases
Pollution and related side effects escalate, triggering resistance to fracking, etc
Rationing of resources, break down in international trade and travel
. . .
SUGGESTED SOLUTIONS:
To maintain the same or greater quality of life, transition to more efficient / frugal technologies.
__ Transportation : electric traction rail (save 90% or more in fuel)
__ Housing : superinsulate to reduce fuel use; reduce air infiltration with air-lock foyers (or revolving doors)
__ Consolidate population : reduce distance traveled for goods and services, recover arable land
__ Local food production : eliminate long distance transport costs
FACTORS:
Population increases, fuel use increases
Fossil fuel stocks deplete, cost for fuel increases
Pollution and related side effects escalate, triggering resistance to fracking, etc
Rationing of resources, break down in international trade and travel
. . .
SUGGESTED SOLUTIONS:
To maintain the same or greater quality of life, transition to more efficient / frugal technologies.
__ Transportation : electric traction rail (save 90% or more in fuel)
__ Housing : superinsulate to reduce fuel use; reduce air infiltration with air-lock foyers (or revolving doors)
__ Consolidate population : reduce distance traveled for goods and services, recover arable land
__ Local food production : eliminate long distance transport costs
I appreciate posts like yours. Instead of arguing, let's find solutions. My main concern is the continued burning of fossil fuels adding to global warming. We need to find alternatives like yesterday. We can't continue business as usual. Thanks again for your post and I hope we have leadership soon that understands the need to get going on these types of ideas.
The cheapest energy of all is energy that you don't use. Upgrading energy efficiency in homes and businesses allows them to use far less energy is far cheaper and generally a one time cost versus paying for energy wasted every month eternally. Requiring new buildings to be net zero energy and retrofitting older properties is one of the cheapest ways to reduce greenhouse gases from fossil fuel. Hybrid cars that can run electrically a high percentage of the time, but still will have multiple hundreds of miles range when needed are available. 2 car families could use an all electric car for most of their needs and have a gas car for long distance travel. Thousands of jobs can be created by upgrading out infrastructure to support energy efficiency and electric/hybrid cars.
Oak Ridge Natl Lab had a project that they were working on to explore continuously charging roadways where conductors embedded in the roadway charge cars inductively as they drive over the conductors. There are technologies on the horizon you've never even imagined.
Right. One category of large consumers, electric utilities, are increasingly choosing solar and wind power, not because it's cleaner or more environmentally cleaner, but because they are cheaper.
"Solar PV and onshore wind are now the cheapest sources of new-build generation for at least two-thirds of the global population. Those two-thirds live in locations that comprise 71% of gross domestic product and 85% of energy generation. Battery storage is now the cheapest new-build technology for peaking purposes (up to two-hours of discharge duration) in gas-importing regions, like Europe, China or Japan." -- Bloomberg
Even in the oil- and gas-rich UAE, they chose to build the world's largest solar power plant because even for them solar was cheaper. Solar and wind are very attractive to a utility because once installed, the cost of fuel is zero. Coal, natural gas and nuclear all cost money to operate because you have to pay for the fuel and to have it delivered.
By 2050 there's going to be a huge amount of oil and gas that will be stranded and left underground, untapped, because solar and wind with storage will be so cheap that it won't make economic sense to pump the fossil fuel to the surface. Consumers will choose electric cars because they will be cheaper and more reliable than gasoline-powered vehicles. Oil will still be needed for jet fuel, diesel for construction and farming equipment, etc. but with those uses demand for oil will be 80%-90% lower than what it is today.
Do you understand that EVs and wind/solar technologies are all oil derivatives? That you can't have these things without an underlying cheap and abundant oil economy?
And do you understand that wind and solar are far too diffuse and intermittent to ever work as primary energy source for a modern economy?
I appreciate posts like yours. Instead of arguing, let's find solutions. My main concern is the continued burning of fossil fuels adding to global warming. We need to find alternatives like yesterday. We can't continue business as usual. Thanks again for your post and I hope we have leadership soon that understands the need to get going on these types of ideas.
Anthropogenic climate change / global warming is a hoax, as far as I can determine.
The "true believers" tell us of dire consequences (since the 1970s) none of which came true.
The data is pooched. The conclusions are bogus. And the fact remains that the atmosphere COOLS the planet.
Sunlight above the atmosphere : 1300 W/m2
Sunlight at ground level at the equator : 1000 W/m2
Peak temperature at the ISS is 250 F.
Peak recorded temp on the surface is 134 F.
116 F degree difference between "no" atmosphere and "heat trapping" atmosphere.
... "A tiny amount of CO2 and other greenhouse gases, like methane and water vapour, keep the Earth's surface 30°Celsius (54°F) warmer than it would be without them.”
WAIT - the Earth with ‘heat trapping’ atmosphere is 116° F cooler than the ISS without an atmosphere (250-134F). And they are claiming that trace gases are keeping Earth’s surface 30°Celsius (54°F) warmer despite the atmosphere keeping us 116°F cooler than the Space Station right outside of Earth’s atmosphere (250-134F).
DOES.NOT.COMPUTE.
BOGUS.
HOAX.
I'm still waiting for them to fess up about just how abundant natural gas is - and in truth, it's everywhere. Very clean burning, too.
It has an interesting history. In the early 1930's, someone realized that even test wells, dry for oil, produced a lot of gas. Up til then, unless it was a well specifically drilled for gas, gas was burned off - in millions of cubic feet usually. Subsequently, they began to cap it, found it in many areas outside the oil-rich areas, and extensive natural gas pipelines were placed across the country. By the mid 1950's gas-powered homes in most urban areas were actually the norm. No shortages - in fact, by necessity they greatly expanded the storage facilities. Once that happened, things went quiet. Rural areas were ignored. And remained that way right up to today - as if additional pipelines were just too big a cost (lol). In the mid 1950's there were raging arguments between gas suppliers and the petroleum industry and the petroleum industry's political hacks.
In the mid 1970's, just prior to the oil embargo crisis, a guy (I forget his name) began hollering about the lack of natural gas use and expansion of the gas lines. He emphasized the low costs and (maybe) the clean burn of natural gas. He was on TV briefly. There was nary a peep when he was found shot to death, execution style, somewhere in Iowa. That murder story was squelched. Meantime, oil embargo, and increased oil cost, numerous wars over oil - rich territories, etc., etc., etc.
Turns out the Earth's crust has far more natural gas (on a per BTU basis) than it does petroleum. By a lot, it turns out. But kept very quiet! Think about that next time you take that plastic container off the shelf - and look around at all the plastic things today. The Sun buses in my city run on natural gas. Why not the cars?
Last edited by TwinbrookNine; 10-01-2020 at 03:28 PM..
Do you understand that EVs and wind/solar technologies are all oil derivatives? That you can't have these things without an underlying cheap and abundant oil economy?
The economy is slowly transitioning now into a green economy where energy produced by wind/solar will be plentiful and cheap, cheaper than oil or gas. Here in California 63% of electrical power comes from non-fossil fuel sources now, and that percentage is increasing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Taggerung
And do you understand that wind and solar are far too diffuse and intermittent to ever work as primary energy source for a modern economy?
Not with a smart grid that redistributes power where needed, coupled with storage. Cheap long-term storage will happen; there's far too much brainpower and venture capital being poured into it for it not to happen. Once cheap storage happens, oil and gas will be a dead man walking, except for secondary use cases.
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