US Jobless claims dip to 837,000. Previous report was 870,000. (insurance, percentage, contractor)
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The weekly unemployment claims continues to improve. First time filers made 837k claims last week. That's drop of 36k from the prior report.
Continuing claims dropped by almost 1 million to 11.8 million. People are coming off the unemployment rolls faster than new filers are appearing. It's improving slowly.
First-time claims for unemployment insurance totaled 837,000 last week, the Labor Department said Thursday as the jobs market continues its plodding recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting 850,000. The weekly total represented a decline of 36,000 from the previous week’s upwardly revised 870,000, according to seasonally adjusted numbers.
This was the fifth consecutive week that claims were under 1 million after staying there for five months following the Covid-19-related economic shutdown in mid-March. However, the total is still well above anything the U.S. has seen since before the crisis.
Continuing claims provided some better news, with those collecting benefits for at least two weeks falling by 980,000 to 11.77 million. The continuing claims number runs a week behind.
However, the overall trend remains stubbornly high, with the four-week moving average of first-time claims edging lower by just 11,750 to 867,250. Prior to the pandemic, weekly claims had been around 200,000.
Those collecting benefits under the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program edged higher to 650,120. The program provides payments to those not normally eligible for benefits, such as freelancers and independent contractors.
The total for all those collecting benefits under the various government programs rose by nearly half a million to 25.53 million for the week ended Sept. 12.
The claims number comes a day before the closely watched nonfarm payrolls report. The Labor Department is expected to report a jobs gain of 800,000 for September, which would represent a slowdown from August’s 1.37%, according to Dow Jones.
The unemployment rate is forecast to tick down two-tenths of a percentage point to 8.2%.
unbeknownst to most is what is called the warn act .
that is a law that forces large employers to give up to 60 days notice when they are going to have large terminations which exceed a ratio of kept workers to terminated workers .
by law workers can only be on furlough status for up to 6 months .. then they must be terminated .
if all furloughed were terminated together a company would first have to give 60 days notice .
so what we have the last few months is a lot of furloughed workers being brought back so the ratio gets them to a point where they no longer have to give 60 days notice ..
.we have seen better unemployment numbers the last few months because of this ..
then those brought back will be terminated also skirting the law .
we also have many furlough workers getting paid benefits and still spending , thinking they have jobs to go back to . but once the 6 month mark hits they are terminated with no jobs .
so i think we are going to see things get a lot worse in the next few months .
I would expect a lot of people working in retail, census, and elections to get laid off at the end of the year. That might get seasonally adjusted out of the headline numbers for December and January.
It is all over the news about the six-month furlough period and the impending wave of layoff announcements.
It is premature to speak of economic recovery when covid is still not under control and we are going into the flu season especially with a large proportion of the population that has no respect for simple public health precautions such as social distancing or wearing a mask when out in public.
While the economy is opening up, consumers are still holding back. Airports, restaurants, hotels are still operating at very reduced capacities. The sky is not falling but we are still not out of the woods yet.
Quote:
Originally Posted by move4ward
The weekly unemployment claims continues to improve. First time filers made 837k claims last week. That's drop of 36k from the prior report.
Continuing claims dropped by almost 1 million to 11.8 million. People are coming off the unemployment rolls faster than new filers are appearing. It's improving slowly.
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I've been wondering for a few weeks now... what's with the new methodology?
Previously, while anyone could argue that "real" unemployment is higher or lower, at least the report used a consistent methodology.
I haven't looked into the new one, but I can't help but feel suspicious. And when they report it on Bloomberg (I know, I know), there's more stuttering than there used to be, so that doesn't help.
It is premature to speak of economic recovery when covid is still not under control and we are going into the flu season especially with a large proportion of the population that has no respect for simple public health precautions such as social distancing or wearing a mask when out in public.
While the economy is opening up, consumers are still holding back. Airports, restaurants, hotels are still operating at very reduced capacities. The sky is not falling but we are still not out of the woods yet.
COVID is a controlled disease in the sense that people have known that they control their own destiny with it.
unbeknownst to most is what is called the warn act .
that is a law that forces large employers to give up to 60 days notice when they are going to have large terminations which exceed a ratio of kept workers to terminated workers .
by law workers can only be on furlough status for up to 6 months .. then they must be terminated .
if all furloughed were terminated together a company would first have to give 60 days notice .
so what we have the last few months is a lot of furloughed workers being brought back so the ratio gets them to a point where they no longer have to give 60 days notice ..
.we have seen better unemployment numbers the last few months because of this ..
then those brought back will be terminated also skirting the law .
we also have many furlough workers getting paid benefits and still spending , thinking they have jobs to go back to . but once the 6 month mark hits they are terminated with no jobs .
so i think we are going to see things get a lot worse in the next few months .
Wow, this realism is overwhelming. But I am glad someone has been around to post something like this. The working world is cruel. That's why I earned multiple graduate degrees to stay employed with a "mixed martial arts" bag of skills in different industries. It's like having multiple parachutes when a plane malfunctions in mid air - an analogy of a layoff in a recession.
Wow, this realism is overwhelming. But I am glad someone has been around to post something like this. The working world is cruel. That's why I earned multiple graduate degrees to stay employed with a "mixed martial arts" bag of skills in different industries. It's like having multiple parachutes when a plane malfunctions in mid air - an analogy of a layoff in a recession.
actually my son taught me about what is going on . he is a prominent labor law attorney for some of the largest corporations .
WMT,TGT,AMZN are all hiring for the coming Prime day and Xmas,so do the carriers,but these are all low paying jobs and what happens NEXT YEAR.
They may stay on the job for returns,Amzn returns last till April.
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