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Okay but the population doesn’t grow 25% in a year lol
No, but, prior to the pandemic there had already been 2-3 years of a feeding frenzy/short supply. So you don't need a 25% increase in homebuyer households when you already have a tight supply. There should be plenty of supply as the Boomers die of in 10-20 years.
No, but, prior to the pandemic there had already been 2-3 years of a feeding frenzy/short supply. So you don't need a 25% increase in homebuyer households when you already have a tight supply. There should be plenty of supply as the Boomers die of in 10-20 years.
Unless their kids move in thus keeping supply down. It'll be interesting to see how that plays out.
Don’t play dumb or stupid. Let’s raise mortgage interest rates to 5% and you will see what bubble. Just imagine what 7% mortgage rates would do to this housing bubble. How about 12%?
Again - what bubble? And give us an accepted definition of a bubble.
Last edited by RationalExpectations; 05-23-2021 at 08:12 AM..
No, but, prior to the pandemic there had already been 2-3 years of a feeding frenzy/short supply. So you don't need a 25% increase in homebuyer households when you already have a tight supply. There should be plenty of supply as the Boomers die of in 10-20 years.
The Boomers phasing out will free up some units, but more importantly, local politics will change without their influence. When Millennials are in charge, there will be less resistance to things like zoning changes to allow more 3 and 4-plexes where SFH units currently are.
Again - what bubble? And give us an accepted definition of a bubble.
I believe he meant the bubble created by artificially low interest rate. More importantly the bubble in 2008 or so was never resolved, but was rather propped up by, again, artificially low interest rates.
Lumber prices and changes due to covid are temporary and a drop in the bucket only. Interest rates are what's driving all this. The demand you speak of is artificially created to some extent. People simply refuse to admit it is better to pay 12% interest on a $250K house than 2% on an $800K one. The first one reflects its value much better (whatever that may mean).
As long as real estate is perceived as 'investing' and not a place to live, it will never be normal. There should be restrictions with severe taxation on anything except primary residence. Only then would we know the real picture.
It is nowhere more apparent than in coastal CA. Average Joes taking a mini-loan to put as a down payment for the main jumbo loan. We are talking a million and more. In a couple of years their house goes up in 'value' (read: government handout via low interest rate), and they easily take out a couple hundred K to buy a house in the mid west cash, sight unseen. Multiply that by a lot and you see the effect.
And that's just average Joes. You can imagine people with some real money. I don't know if you can call all that a bubble, but it is something abnormal.
There should be plenty of supply as the Boomers die of in 10-20 years.
Won't there be just as many new buyers though as the Boomer grandkids and great grandkids come in to age to buy homes? Seems like it would be a wash at best.
This chart below shows plenty of demand coming up the ranks in the years to come that will easily match the boomers decline. Also, keep in mind that the comparison of total population of Boomers vs Gen X or Millenials is always a bit misleading because the Boomer generation typically spands 18 years while that of Gen X and Millenials is typically 15 years. For that reason it is never an apples to apples comparison and it always looks like there are many more Boomers than the other generations. Well duh, they have 3 more years included in their generation span compared to the other two generations so their total numbers are juiced and higher.
Last edited by Bill the Butcher; 05-23-2021 at 09:10 AM..
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