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I have been thinking a lot about the direction the economy is heading in recently and I feel it is unfair on the population. As an economist I develop alternative options for governments and politicians to apply to prevent hard hitting policies, which can be damaging to the economy. I have written an article which pushes for a new economic growth strategy instead of a balancing economic strategy. You can read the article for free at the link below.
...and I feel it (the economy) is unfair on the population.
And I feel the population, the overlarge surplus to need portion, is unfair to the economy.
Sort out a way to lift that BURDEN on the rest and both ends will be better off.
I don't think anyone thinks the various public debts will be paid off. They will either be outgrown or inflated away.
The problem with outgrowing debts is that you need a growing population to grow the economy. And technological innovation cannot be treated as exogenous. It is endogenous and a downstream effect of population growth since new ideas almost always come from rising cohorts.
That leaves inflation. The problem with inflation is that it is correlated with lower rates of economic growth.
The two debt strategies are to an extent inimical to each other, so it would be hard to pursue an "all of the above" strategy.
I don't think anyone thinks the various public debts will be paid off.
I don't think anyone wants to pull up their big girl panties and actually face the problem.
Pretending it doesn't matter, that the grown-ups will come up with *something*, is much more fun.
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The problem with outgrowing debts is ...
It ignores the 20,000 other effects an ever rising population brings with it.
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...since new ideas almost always come from rising cohorts.
I don't think anyone wants to pull up their big girl panties and actually face the problem.
Pretending it doesn't matter, that the grown-ups will come up with *something*, is much more fun.
It ignores the 20,000 other effects an ever rising population brings with it.
Meh.
Do you honestly think the debt will be managed without inflation?
In order to pay it down without destroying demand through excessive thrift, you need to pay off a little bit every year for decades. Do you think a democracy is politically capable of maintaining that discipline?
Growing our way out of the debt won't happen either, in case that wasn't clear. Population growth is stalling and falling because of other factors that won't change for a long time.
The only option which is politically possible is inflating the debt away. I would characterize this as a cynical take not a lazy take. I don't see debt paydown as possible.
I have been thinking a lot about the direction the economy is heading in recently and I feel it is unfair on the population. As an economist I develop alternative options for governments and politicians to apply to prevent hard hitting policies, which can be damaging to the economy. I have written an article which pushes for a new economic growth strategy instead of a balancing economic strategy. You can read the article for free at the link below.
The article is an overly generalized solution to a very complex problem.
You have to keep the articles short to encourage people to read them, it only provides the basic principle.
In terms of controlling inflation when it occurs. In the United Kingdom they have been using my school of economic thought that uses pension saving to control inflation. You can see how effective it is at controlling inflation, sustaining economic growth, reducing unemployment and keeping the interest rate low below. Plus it massively reduced house repossession rates.
You want the second Scribd document down on the linked page below.
In terms of the situation being complicated. I have developed a whole new economic model, many mechanisms and a new school of economic thought to deal with the current problem. You can read two of my books for free at the link below. One book has been used successfully over the past decade in the United Kingdom and the other is on the list of resources for the Euro at the EUI. It is also evidence that I can influence macroeconomic policy to solve problems.
The books Modern Applied Macroeconomics and Euro Crisis are available for you to read for free at the link below.
I have not just produced macroeconomic work, it has been implemented and proven to work.
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