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Old 05-22-2008, 11:27 AM
 
Location: America
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Okay so where is all this headed? Doom and gloom? Mass riots? Child sacrifices?

Not so much, but here is a great video interview with one of my Favorite guys right now Eric Janszen on where he sees the economy going. I should mention his site has been on point for predicting pretty much all the bubbles, recessions and so on well before most economist got on board.


link
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Old 05-22-2008, 02:23 PM
 
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So what do we do? Ride the alt energy bubble up? Keep on commodities and precious metals, hoping it's not a bubble and the dollar will continue to fall to oblivion?
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Old 05-22-2008, 02:36 PM
 
5,409 posts, read 10,331,858 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wild Style View Post
Okay so where is all this headed? Doom and gloom? Mass riots? Child sacrifices?

Not so much, but here is a great video interview with one of my Favorite guys right now Eric Janszen on where he sees the economy going. I should mention his site has been on point for predicting pretty much all the bubbles, recessions and so on well before most economist got on board.


link
If I follow his concept, he is saying there will be an overshoot in the make believe stock values for Renewable Energy companies? OK. Maybe so. Stock values on a lot of companies are mostly BS, anyway.

On the other hand I am not sure if he is (also?) predicting an overshoot in the supply of Renewable Energy, itself? Been keeping an eye out towards the side for that, as well. There is SO MUCH already coming on line from wind, and much slated to be coming on line from other Renewable -- like Solar Thermal, I was wondering if (and when) we were going to saturate the commercial electric market.

Possible coming surplus electric -- combined with high oil costs -- is why I am pushing on the side for designs into All Electric Farming (uses no oil based fuels).

I suppose the same (only) scenario that is predicted to break the run up in oil prices -- which is a major worldwide recession (some say Depression) -- because that would drop demand, could also drop demand for other energy sources such as electricity and RE.
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Old 05-22-2008, 03:33 PM
 
Location: America
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gentlemen,

I presented you with get rich quick information. What you guys do with it is your call lol best of luck to all.
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Old 05-22-2008, 07:34 PM
 
Location: Sitting on a bar stool. Guinness in hand.
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Default intersting

Quote:
Originally Posted by Philip T View Post
Possible coming surplus electric -- combined with high oil costs -- is why I am pushing on the side for designs into All Electric Farming (uses no oil based fuels).

Sounds interesting. Could you elaborate a little more.
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Old 05-23-2008, 12:54 AM
 
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Sure, but on --

. . . the Surplus Electricity part?

There is a lot of Renewable Energy coming on line. And a lot more projected. This Harper article pretty well covers what Wild Style has been talking about >>>

The Next Bubble: Priming the markets for tomorrow’s big crash: Priming the markets for tomorrow's big crash, By Eric Janszen (Harper's Magazine)

That projects Renewable Energy will hit the peak of a bubble in 2014.

========================

Or if you meant the Electric Farm?

This pretty well covers it, as a start >>>

The Renewable Electron Economy Part VIII.1: The Electric Farm « Green Thoughts

and then by part 2, I got into the stuff with him, and we are working out some applications

The Renewable Electron Economy Part VIII.2: The Electric Farm - 2 « Green Thoughts

So now we are collecting up some toys to play with.
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Old 05-23-2008, 06:37 AM
 
Location: America
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Philip

Eric Janszen, the guy in the video is the same one who wrote the Harpers article.

Also, guys should look into "Pebble Bed Nuclear Reactors". Those things seem like they will be the next big thing as well.
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Old 05-23-2008, 10:26 AM
 
Location: Boise, ID
1,356 posts, read 5,700,362 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Philip T View Post
There is a lot of Renewable Energy coming on line. And a lot more projected. This Harper article pretty well covers what Wild Style has been talking about >>>

The Next Bubble: Priming the markets for tomorrow’s big crash: Priming the markets for tomorrow's big crash, By Eric Janszen (Harper's Magazine)

That projects Renewable Energy will hit the peak of a bubble in 2014.
Thanks for the link. Very interesting. I'm not taking issue with the article, per se, but I do have a few questions that maybe someone can answer:

1) Something doesn't make sense in Janszen's discussion of the internet bubble but I can't put my finger on it. He broadly mentions deregulation but his lack of specificity leaves me confused (and a little suspicious). It seems to me that the internet bubble was more a result of the infusion of money in a get-rich-quick sort of way rather than as a long-term investment. Does anyone else more insight on that?

2) Is Janszen arguing we would have been better off if the internet had not be commercialized? That seems like a hard argument to make in light of the jobs and services that have been created, not to mention the access to information the public has now.

3) His prediction of an alternative energy bubble makes some sense. However, the need for alternative energy is very real. The capital produced in the "bubble" will drive the R&D necessary to develop the alternatives. What is Janszen's solution to prevent the bubble?

I support regulations that ensure competition.

It seems to me that bubbles are particularly large nowadays because of an inflated dollar, the modern work ethic and desire to get something for nothing, and how easy it is for the average Joe to put money in and out of the stock market.
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Old 05-23-2008, 11:00 AM
 
Location: America
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Niners fan View Post
Thanks for the link. Very interesting. I'm not taking issue with the article, per se, but I do have a few questions that maybe someone can answer:

1) Something doesn't make sense in Janszen's discussion of the internet bubble but I can't put my finger on it. He broadly mentions deregulation but his lack of specificity leaves me confused (and a little suspicious). It seems to me that the internet bubble was more a result of the infusion of money in a get-rich-quick sort of way rather than as a long-term investment. Does anyone else more insight on that?

2) Is Janszen arguing we would have been better off if the internet had not be commercialized? That seems like a hard argument to make in light of the jobs and services that have been created, not to mention the access to information the public has now.

3) His prediction of an alternative energy bubble makes some sense. However, the need for alternative energy is very real. The capital produced in the "bubble" will drive the R&D necessary to develop the alternatives. What is Janszen's solution to prevent the bubble?

I support regulations that ensure competition.

It seems to me that bubbles are particularly large nowadays because of an inflated dollar, the modern work ethic and desire to get something for nothing, and how easy it is for the average Joe to put money in and out of the stock market.
To give you a push in the right direction. Look up the definition for a market bubble. I think this is part of the problem, you are equating market bubbles with 100% doom and gloom. While market bubbles are bad, at times they can have social and economic advantages that may not be realized for some time. For example, in the Tech bubble which included telecommunications sector; you had tons of broadband collocation work (which my unit was a major player in) going on and build out of fiber optic cabling. That is just one example. If you look at that video I posted in the OP, you will see Mr. Eric Janszen being interviewed he addresses a lot of what you are asking. But again a lot more will be made clear via more research on your part. As for deregulation, do research into deregulation in the telecommunications sector during that time. Again this is all related, because with out telecommunications (internet infrastructure ie laying of broadband cable, roll out of 3G networks etc.) the internet bubble wouldn't have had a road to drive on. I worked for Lucent back in that time so I had a front row seat to all of this. Either way, I hope that helps.

Also, with increasing energy prices which I assure you will not go down. I bet you (and as Janszen has pointed out) telecommuting to work will become HUGE. I agree with is theory because, again, back when I was at Lucent, this was the BIG push. My boss wanted me to move out to Texas during this time. I told him I am not leaving NYC once I graduate and asked him to work with me. He said no problem, Lucent had a big push to give everyone a laptop, pay for broadband and give everyone a cellphone. He said it was because it is MUCH cheaper to do that than it is to pay for the cost to run/operate a HUGE building (need a place to house workers). This whole push was delayed because of the huge bubble bursting. However the groundwork was laid back then for all this to take place and I think in the next decade we will be in a much different America from the one we see now.
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Old 05-23-2008, 11:01 AM
 
5,409 posts, read 10,331,858 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Niners fan View Post
Thanks for the link. Very interesting. I'm not taking issue with the article, per se, but I do have a few questions that maybe someone can answer:

1) Something doesn't make sense in Janszen's discussion of the internet bubble but I can't put my finger on it. He broadly mentions deregulation but his lack of specificity leaves me confused (and a little suspicious). It seems to me that the internet bubble was more a result of the infusion of money in a get-rich-quick sort of way rather than as a long-term investment. Does anyone else more insight on that?

One word that built out the commercial internet:

Porn.

Not saying that is good. Just the way things are.

Quote:

2) Is Janszen arguing we would have been better off if the internet had not be commercialized? That seems like a hard argument to make in light of the jobs and services that have been created, not to mention the access to information the public has now.
No, I think it is the lack of Steady State bothers some folks. But when surf is up -- Go Surfing! Ride the Wave. It is not like any of us are getting out of here alive, anyway.

Quote:
3) His prediction of an alternative energy bubble makes some sense. However, the need for alternative energy is very real. The capital produced in the "bubble" will drive the R&D necessary to develop the alternatives. What is Janszen's solution to prevent the bubble?

I support regulations that ensure competition.

It seems to me that bubbles are particularly large nowadays because of an inflated dollar, the modern work ethic and desire to get something for nothing, and how easy it is for the average Joe to put money in and out of the stock market.
Same discussion is going around the RE (renewable energy) industry discussions now -- here was my two centavos on our local industry site >>>

not that I am that quote worthy -- but what is not to love?

Quote:

dunno that this is even a bad thing in this regard. By the Harper's article, there will be a run-up in RE building until saturation hits in or about 2014. So that is a five year run ahead of everyone from T Boone to Joe Six Pack building out Windmills, Solar Thermal plants, and all the rest.

And then after five years of gang-buster activity, saturation hits. Ok. Happens in a lot of industries. Highways, Bridges, Military (wars -- other than endless ones like, now). In the construction realm most of the folks in it now it is over when the project is built -- and usually by the end are looking for it to be done.

So saddle up and get ready to ride. Is this not what the whole RE community has been sitting and moaning about for the last 20 years? The time for Dinosaur Dust and Oil is past and we have a country and world to re-energize. Come five years, dunno about you, but I am going to be tired and ready to take a break, anyway.

In the meanwhile -- it is time RE Bubble Up (and Rainbow Stew)

Seize the day!
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