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Old 05-13-2022, 11:28 AM
 
956 posts, read 512,604 times
Reputation: 1015

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Quote:
Originally Posted by ocnjgirl View Post
No president really has that much influence over oil prices. They are set on a global market. Exxon is going to sell a barrel of oil for $200 if that’s the price for the global market sets, and it doesn’t make any difference whether it comes from North Dakota or Venezuela. The oil company shut down a lot of wells during Covid when prices plummeted. They promised their investors they would never allow that overproduction to happen again. They have still not reopened a lot of those wells. Our production is still down by one and a half billion barrels a day from where it was a few years ago. Furthermore, oil company stock piled drilling permits before Biden took office and they currently are sitting on them.

There are reasons why we should want to be more energy independent, but price is not one of them. I don’t know why people have this idea that if oil comes from the ground in the United States that we’re going to get it for some kind of discount, it is not going to happen. And if supply became so great that prices started going down too much again, they would simply shut down more of those operations. If we had a socialist or communist government, then government could compel oil companies to increase production, but we know. In a capitalist system, they are going to do what they have to to make the most profits and if that means curtailing supply then so be it. Oil companies could increase production today if they wanted to.

Add the Russian embargo, and vastly increased demand from China and Europe over the last year or so and we have what we have now. People seem to think that if we have more oil in this country, that is somehow going to result in us getting a discount or something for it it’s just ridiculous.

That big pipeline that was shut down wasn’t going to be for domestic use anyway. The crude in that area of the country is much too thick for our facilities to process. It was all going to go to Venezuela and other countries that have the means to process it.

But in any case, a barrel of oil costs us the same whether it comes from another country or from here.
That's true though they need to ramp up production again. The covid shutdown was a very rare thing. If that does not happen, oil never crashes to such insanely low prices that cause losses for oil company investors. Instead it hovers from $50 to $70 a barrel and everyone is happy. Now was have $100+ oil which is painful for many though hefty profit for oil companies, but lower volume as higher volume will drive down prices, but more is sold to compensate without a crash to such low prices that they lose money like covid shutdown. Now they are so scared to open production gain because of another shutdown. That was a once in generations event.
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Old 05-13-2022, 11:42 AM
 
51,011 posts, read 36,695,193 times
Reputation: 76779
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wolverine607 View Post
That's true though they need to ramp up production again. The covid shutdown was a very rare thing. If that does not happen, oil never crashes to such insanely low prices that cause losses for oil company investors. Instead it hovers from $50 to $70 a barrel and everyone is happy. Now was have $100+ oil which is painful for many though hefty profit for oil companies, but lower volume as higher volume will drive down prices, but more is sold to compensate without a crash to such low prices that they lose money like covid shutdown. Now they are so scared to open production gain because of another shutdown. That was a once in generations event.
I know that, but their stockholders are still nervous. And their loyalty is not with the American people, it is with their stockholders. Which is as it should be with a corporation. I really don’t understand why people think that they would allow oil prices to get low to help the American people. They’re corporations. Of course, they and their lobbyists have a vested interest in convincing people that it will help all of us if they get more drilling permits. But they are sitting on a lot of permits right now.
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Old 05-13-2022, 11:44 AM
 
30,253 posts, read 11,879,363 times
Reputation: 18719
Quote:
Originally Posted by WRM20 View Post

So, I don't see moving any large amount of water as reasonably achievable. It would be better to not move millions of people into areas that cannot support them.

People are moving to places that cannot support them in large numbers now. People have the right to move where they want but at the very least we could create incentives for them to go where there is water and lots of space. Then encourage businesses to relocate there. I only picked the southwest because its a popular area for people to move to. I get that at the very least moving water there would be very expensive if not impossible. But if you go to flyover country there is lots of possible land and lots of water. Just less desirable for people to go there.
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Old 05-13-2022, 11:53 AM
 
956 posts, read 512,604 times
Reputation: 1015
Quote:
Originally Posted by ocnjgirl View Post
I know that, but their stockholders are still nervous. And their loyalty is not with the American people, it is with their stockholders. Which is as it should be with a corporation. I really don’t understand why people think that they would allow oil prices to get low to help the American people. They’re corporations. Of course, they and their lobbyists have a vested interest in convincing people that it will help all of us if they get more drilling permits. But they are sitting on a lot of permits right now.
It could benefit them for oil prices to get lower, but not too low as they sell a lot more and still profit versus sell less at higher profits. They may sell a lot less at higher prices hurting profits. It can work both ways.

They obviously do not want them to get below $50 or way below that as that will destroy their business.
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Old 05-13-2022, 03:15 PM
 
15,569 posts, read 7,583,489 times
Reputation: 19460
Quote:
Originally Posted by ocnjgirl View Post
No president really has that much influence over oil prices. They are set on a global market. Exxon is going to sell a barrel of oil for $200 if that’s the price for the global market sets, and it doesn’t make any difference whether it comes from North Dakota or Venezuela. The oil company shut down a lot of wells during Covid when prices plummeted. They promised their investors they would never allow that overproduction to happen again. They have still not reopened a lot of those wells. Our production is still down by one and a half billion barrels a day from where it was a few years ago. Furthermore, oil company stock piled drilling permits before Biden took office and they currently are sitting on them.

There are reasons why we should want to be more energy independent, but price is not one of them. I don’t know why people have this idea that if oil comes from the ground in the United States that we’re going to get it for some kind of discount, it is not going to happen. And if supply became so great that prices started going down too much again, they would simply shut down more of those operations. If we had a socialist or communist government, then government could compel oil companies to increase production, but we know. In a capitalist system, they are going to do what they have to to make the most profits and if that means curtailing supply then so be it. Oil companies could increase production today if they wanted to.

Add the Russian embargo, and vastly increased demand from China and Europe over the last year or so and we have what we have now. People seem to think that if we have more oil in this country, that is somehow going to result in us getting a discount or something for it it’s just ridiculous.

That big pipeline that was shut down wasn’t going to be for domestic use anyway. The crude in that area of the country is much too thick for our facilities to process. It was all going to go to Venezuela and other countries that have the means to process it.

But in any case, a barrel of oil costs us the same whether it comes from another country or from here.
One thing to keep in mind, using Exxon as an example from their Q1 financials(https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/New...r-2022-results), is that the major companies refine more oil than they produce. Exxon produces 2.3 million barrels per day of oil, and refines 4 million barrels per day. That means Exxon pays full market price for the 1.7 million barrels per day difference between production and refinery capacity. They sell 5.1 million barrels per day of petroleum, which means the company is buying 1.1 million barrels per day of refined products at wholesale prices. There are times when the refining portion is going to lose money due to outside purchases, but refineries can't be run at low rates for very long.

Oil is going to be sold at world market prices. That's just the way it is.

Minor correction, the Canadian heavy crude would likely be at least partially processed here, and lighter crudes exported. US refineries are generally optimized for heavier crudes. The refinery in Chalmette, Louisiana was built to refine Venezuelan crude. Venezuela doesn't refine much oil. It is semi-funny that much of the increase in US production in recent years cannot be efficiently refined here.
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Old 05-13-2022, 03:59 PM
 
2,288 posts, read 1,591,676 times
Reputation: 3873
Quote:
Originally Posted by k374 View Post
making up? Are you serious dude? Mortgage rates are projected to be at 7% by end of year, what do you think that will do to housing?

And layoffs are starting in force, Carvana, Netflix, Meta etc. etc. list is growing...

Fed policy is flood the system with cheap money, inflate ridiculous bubbles, then pull the rug from under all the people on top... that is supposed to be acceptable?

You are correct. I guess you also heard $6 gas will be the nat'l average. California likely at $8 a gallon.


Fed chairman Powell lowered rates to much from Trumps pressure. Elizabeth Warren was correct. Powell is a very dangerous and irresponsible man. Because rates were so low private equity and large companies , and sole investors have speculated into owning from 10 to 100's of rental homes raising local rent prices and spurring demand.


These large investors should not be allowed to own this many homes. Once they dump their holdings a housing decline will happen. It always does when people think it's different this time.


Guess what? you reply with "what". Me: Jumbo interest rates are already at 6%, 7% and even 8% for special programs like the 5% down program on a $1.5 million home.


Powell really screwed this up with the free money in 2020; PPP grants and throwing paychecks to people during the pandemic. He is such a pansy with anyone; Trump, Biden, Yellin. He has reacted too late.

Last edited by frankrj; 05-13-2022 at 04:12 PM..
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Old 05-13-2022, 04:08 PM
 
2,288 posts, read 1,591,676 times
Reputation: 3873
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lowexpectations View Post
Raising rates don’t make a housing crisis, we aren’t in one, unemployment is dropping. So again are you making things up? Certainly at best you are crystal balling this
under the surface layoffs are occurring. I was just told from a rep who works for a big nationwide lender they just laid off many people. Realtors are saying it is slow and they are experiencing the most price declines in a hot area of Florida. Yes sir, it has peaked.

Just wait til work from home becomes come back to the office or be laid off. Those $6 per gallon gas prices and less consumer spending will be noticed. Recession is a given.

When home prices start declining and they are in some parts of the US, people are being laid off and don't pay rent, rental property investors don't want to hold onto that home or homes they bought in the burbs anymore. They get rid of it and at any cost since it is titled in an LLC or corp. They didn't buy to become landlords. They bought for the insane appreciation we had.

This should be a textbook economic recession. Sell before it peaks is too late. The problem was bond market volatility and interest rates rose the quickest since 1951.
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Old 05-13-2022, 04:17 PM
 
106,938 posts, read 109,218,153 times
Reputation: 80367
Whoever thinks homes are slowing in florida needs to get out more …

There is so much demand in the villages you have to make a reservation and they send you by bus load .

Most businesses can’t find employees in many areas .

Here in Long Island we have 61 job openings to fill at the company i do some work for
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Old 05-13-2022, 04:24 PM
 
19,908 posts, read 18,186,485 times
Reputation: 17351
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wolverine607 View Post
That's true though they need to ramp up production again. The covid shutdown was a very rare thing. If that does not happen, oil never crashes to such insanely low prices that cause losses for oil company investors. Instead it hovers from $50 to $70 a barrel and everyone is happy. Now was have $100+ oil which is painful for many though hefty profit for oil companies, but lower volume as higher volume will drive down prices, but more is sold to compensate without a crash to such low prices that they lose money like covid shutdown. Now they are so scared to open production gain because of another shutdown. That was a once in generations event.
That's utter nonsense.
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Old 05-13-2022, 04:35 PM
 
51,011 posts, read 36,695,193 times
Reputation: 76779
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wolverine607 View Post
It could benefit them for oil prices to get lower, but not too low as they sell a lot more and still profit versus sell less at higher profits. They may sell a lot less at higher prices hurting profits. It can work both ways.

They obviously do not want them to get below $50 or way below that as that will destroy their business.

But they make more profits when demand is higher than supply. This article on Baron's summarizes a quarterly survey done by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. They surveyed 141 oil and gas firms in Texas, Louisiana and New Mexico. They state a variety of reasons for not producing more, including government interference, but the biggest reason was still regarding gun-shy stockholders.


https://www.barrons.com/articles/tex...re-51648145290





"When asked why they aren’t raising production more, 59% of respondents said it was because investors are pressuring them to maintain capital discipline. Another 11% said it was because of the environmental social and governance movement, 8% said it was because of trouble accessing financing and 6% said it was because of government regulations. Another 15% marked “other,” which included things like “personnel shortages, limited availability of equipment, and supply-chain issues.”
“The industry is facing serious supply issues for the materials needed to grow production,” wrote one production executive in the comments section. In addition, the Fed asked producers what price of West Texas Intermediate oil it would take for them to get back into “growth mode.” For 41%, they said they needed prices to be $80 to $99 a barrel, a level that WTI has already surpassed. But the second-most respondents—29%—said the price didn’t matter. That implies that they are sticking to their production plans no matter what, a departure from past oil booms."
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